The Payoff Pitch podcast MLB experts break down their favorite picks from the day's slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday, including each analyst's favorite underdog on the slate, and they've got two more to recommend today.
You can read about their picks below, and be sure to subscribe to Payoff Pitch for MLB picks and predictions all season long.
Mets vs. Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET
David Peterson vs. Dean Kremer
Charlie DiSturco: The Mets are one of the teams that everybody wants to fade right now. They were just swept by Kansas City, and have lost four of their last five since trading David Robinson and selling ship. However, I think this a good spot to back David Peterson and fade Dean Kremer. That's the majority of the reason for my handicap here.
If you look at this matchup, I think this number has gone completely out of hand; it's a complete overreaction to the market.
Peterson is very comparable to Kremer. If you look at his numbers, Peterson has a 6.00 ERA, but his xERA is down around 4.80, and his xFIP is right around 3.50. Those are pretty similar to his numbers from last year, when he was a lot better.
His BABIP is about .390, so when you look at the luck he's been getting served, it has not been great. He has been limiting barrels, and has above average strikeout stuff.
It's not as if he's been struggling to get past hitters; it's that the balls that have been put in play have been hit to places where the Mets are not, so the BABIP monster has been getting him.
Since he's rejoined the bigs — he went down to the minors when he was struggling — he's thrown 23 1/3 innings, allowed seven runs and six earned, allowed one home run and struck out 23. Obviously, that's mostly from coming out of the bullpen. However, we've seen what he can do, and we know what he can do.
He's about a league-average player, and that's kind of where Dean Kremer is.
If not, Kremer's a little bit worse. He's in the bottom 11% in xBA and xSLG. He has a career-worst .278 xBA, his xERA is right around 5.50, and he has below average strikeout stuff as well. This is a guy with plus command who gives up a lot of barrels because he doesn't get swings and misses out of the zone.
He's forced to attack the zone with his hard stuff, and the other team is able to hit that stuff that's inside the zone well. Kremer struggles at home; he has 1 5.50 ERA at Camden and a 3.70 ERA on the road.
This is just a matchup where both teams are in their positive split, but Peterson is completely undervalued in the market. To have them at +135 in the first five is a complete overreaction to how bad the Mets have been.
I'm not going to get into the whole bullpen thing, because I don't even know who the Mets have at this point. They're just throwing out Triple-A and Double-A arms in the back-end at this point.
Peterson and Kremer are more comparable than people think, so I'm more than happy to lay the +135. I'd back it down to +120.
Rays vs. Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET
Zack Littell vs. Reese Olson
Anthony Dabbundo: I'm going with the Detroit Tigers at +120 at home against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Reese Olson is a pitcher who I'm going to continue to bet on from start to start. I want to bet on his stuff and bet on his ability. He's had a real home run issue, allowing 1.45 HR/9 thus far, which has really derailed the start to his major-league career.
However, if you look at his numbers in the upper-minors, he didn't really have a home run problem. Most projections systems have him closer to about 1.1 or 1.2 HR/9. That doesn't sound like a huge difference, but it does add up. He's also had some very poorly timed home runs, allowing two or three run shots in bad situations.
However, he's getting nearly a strikeout per inning, and his Stuff+ numbers really pop on both of his breaking balls. His fastball isn't great, but it's good enough. The command on it needs some work before he comes a really solid pitcher.
The rest of his season projections have him around a 4.20 or 4.30 ERA, and I think that's what he can be. I think he's being underpriced as a result of that at home against Tampa.
Tampa is pitching a bullpen game today. Zack Littell will open, and they are really piecing this game together. They did have yesterday off, so that helps in terms of trying to piece together innings without being too worn down.
I like Detroit here +120 with a respectable starter who is continually undervalued.
Payoff Pitch Underdog Picks for Day, Date
- Mets moneyline
- Tigers moneyline
At FanDuel, this parlay would pay out at +429 at the time of this writing.
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