As a reminder, the Payoff Pitch podcast MLB experts break down their favorite picks from the day's slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday, including each analyst's favorite underdog on the slate. They have two more to recommend today.
You can read about their picks below, and be sure to subscribe to Payoff Pitch for MLB picks and predictions all season long.
Cardinals vs. Reds, 6:40 p.m.
Adam Wainwright vs. Graham Ashcraft
Sean Zerillo: I like the Reds again today. Charlie shouted out Graham Ashcraft, who broke my heart last week when he blew up a first 5 bet.
We’re going to try to run it back with him today. I just think he’s underrated in the betting market because his strikeout and walk numbers aren’t particularly pretty.
He does allow more weak contact than most pitchers, as he has a ground-ball rate north of 50% and a home run per 9 rate under one, which is very tough to do in today's environment.
He forces the Cardinals into their lesser split — they are better against lefties than righties.
And Adam Wainwright is really falling off of a cliff. He’s experiencing a further velocity decline at his age. Time was going to catch up to him inevitably and it seems like it might finally be doing it.
Even in the World Baseball Classic, Team USA was like “absolutely not, you are not going near the mound.” We brought our D-team pitchers for Team USA, and Wainwright was nowhere near the mound. That tells you the opinion of Team USA.
I made this line about +105 for the Reds. I actually don’t see a massive difference between these two bullpens.
Is the Cardinals’ bullpen so much better than the Reds’ bullpen? I know Alexis Diaz couldn’t throw strikes last night, but I’m not so sure that the Cardinals have a pitching advantage anywhere in this matchup.
So, the Reds to about +115 would be a bet for me. I’m going to try to find the first 5 bet as well, but unfortunately, I don’t think the number is juicy enough.
Pick: Reds +124 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Guardians, 6:10 p.m.
Dylan Cease vs. Logan Allen
Charlie DiSturco: My underdog is the Chicago White Sox against the Cleveland Guardians. Dylan Cease is not the same pitcher that he was over the last couple of years.
But this is more of a fade against Logan Allen. If you look at his numbers, he’s been incredibly lucky thus far. A .286 expected batting average, an expected slugging near .500 and his xERA is two runs higher than actual.
He doesn’t really walk many batters and ranks around league average in chase and whiff rate, but his barrel rate is near double digits, so opponents are able to see him well and hit him hard. He’s been able to mitigate damage thus far.
Both Cease and Allen are right around that 50% mark in hard hit rate, but Cease is slightly better, and I give the advantage to Cease — who’s pitched in the big leagues the last couple years compared to Logan Allen, who's relatively new to MLB.
White Sox are in their better split here. Meanwhile, the Guardians' offense is one I feel like we’ve talked about all season long; it's pretty disastrous.
They put the ball in play, but they really can’t do anything to get on base or do anything with those runners on base. They’re 25th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The White Sox have a 105 wRC+ against lefties.
Allen has a 83% left on base rate and Cease has a 64.7% left on base rate. That’s one of the biggest differentials for me, and Allen is pitching way above expectations, while Cease is right around what you’d expect.
So, at plus money I love the White Sox here. They have the better offense. The bullpen is not as good, but they own a starting pitching edge. That’s enough for me to back them here.
Pick: White Sox +108 |
Payoff Pitch Underdog Picks for Tuesday, May 23
- Reds +124
- White +108
At FanDuel, this parlay would pay out at +365 at the time of this writing.
Pick: Payoff Pitch Underdog Parlay |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
