The Payoff Pitch podcast MLB experts break down their favorite picks from the day's slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday, including each analyst's favorite underdog on the slate, and they've got two more to recommend today.
You can read about their picks below, and be sure to subscribe to Payoff Pitch for MLB picks and predictions all season long.
Brewers vs. Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Julio Teheran vs. David Peterson
Sean Zerillo: I'm going with the Milwaukee Brewers. I bet them yesterday, and I'm going to bet them again today. The Mets, in my opinion, continue to be overvalued. I've bet against the Mets a ton lately, and we're going to keep it going for Tuesday.
Julio Teheran is a guy I've bet on a ton this season. His strikeout minus walk rate, even after walking four guys in his last start, is still at its best level since 2016. He's been pretty solid throwing a cutter this year.
He used to throw a slider the majority of the time. He's started throwing it harder and modified it into a cutter, and now he has both a slider and a cutter, which I think has helped him a little bit, just in terms of messing with timing. There is similar movement on the two pitches, but one's coming in at 85, and one's coming in at 79. It's almost like his slider is a changeup for his cutter.
We've seen other pitchers do that, I believe Corey Kluber was the one who started popularizing that, and it sort of took off around the league after he won the Cy Young. The cutter has been pretty effective for Tehran, and he's showing good command.
This is another situation where I project the underdog starting pitcher as better than the favorite starting pitcher. David Peterson has gotten shelled this year. His strikeout minus walk rate and xFIP are kind of in line with last season, but his xERA is north of five and his actual ERA is north of eight. Yes, a .404 batting average on balls in play and 60% strand rate are both unsustainable, but he's gotten hit very hard. This is why his xERA is north of five.
I made Brewers closer to +115; you can bet them down to +125. This is another spot where, even though I suspect a starting pitching edge for the Brewers over the Mets, I'm not betting the first five, because I think that market is correct. However, I think the bullpen definitely leans Milwaukee.
The Mets' bullpen is just an absolute mess right now. They were so reliant on Edwin Diaz being able to lock down leads by throwing two innings every now and then. Now, their starters are going shorter, they don't have Diaz to lock down two innings every game, the bridge has been extended to get to the end of the game and, by the time they get to the end of the game, everybody's tired.
Twins vs. Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
Joe Ryan vs. Bryce Elder
Anthony Dabbundo: There's not a lot of market love for Bryce Elder, because the market knows he's not a 1.92 ERA pitcher and the market isn't pricing him at that. However, even compared to his expected indicators and what the projections say about him, they opened him as a road favorite against Aaron Nola in Philly. Now, the market took a ton of Phillies money, but that stayed for a long time until the next morning when it finally got hammered closer to game time.
Now, he's -150 against a guy who I think is a top-eight pitcher in baseball right now.
I know the Twins lineup has had its issues, but while I haven't seen news on Royce Lewis, I'm imagining he'll be back in there tonight, so that's a nice little bump. Byron Buxton didn't play last night either, and I'd imagine he'll be back as well. Buxton and Lewis back in that lineup adds a lot of pop, and makes them a much more formidable opponent.
Atlanta's bullpen has gotten absolutely taxed in the last weekend. They played a wild weekend series in Cincinnati where their starter did not go deep in any of the games, and they were forced to go deep into their 'pen.
Even on Monday night, Spencer Strider did go seven, but they still had to use Collin McHugh and then get the save as well. So they have used a ton of bullpen, whereas the Twins have been relatively rested. Atlanta's bullpen is very very good, but Raisel Iglesias has not been himself. He has not been normal Raisel Iglesias; he's given up a bunch of runs, and he's struggled to keep clean innings.
That's another potential area where it's just crazy for me for them to be a -150 favorite with Elder, since the regression will be coming at some point. He does a nice job of liming homers, but the Twins will barrel. They are a top five barrel team, so he could run into some trouble there tonight. I like the Twins.
Payoff Pitch Underdog Picks for Tuesday, June 27
- Brewers moneyline
- Twins moneyline
At FanDuel, this parlay would pay out at +424 at the time of this writing.
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