Friday's MLB slate is loaded with all 30 teams in action; 15 games on deck including 14 taking place under the lights. Our Payoff Pitch crew, as you might expect, sees plenty of value on the board including a pair of underdog picks.
As a reminder, the Payoff Pitch podcast MLB experts break down their favorite picks from the day's slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday, including each analyst's favorite underdog on the slate, and they've got two more to recommend today.
You can read about their picks below, and be sure to subscribe to Payoff Pitch for MLB picks and predictions all season long.
Marlins vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
(Editor's Note: This game has been postponed)
Braxton Garrett vs. Zach Plesac
B.J. Cunningham: Zach Plesac good fade material here. Last season, expected ERA was a full run higher than his ERA. He's gotten lit up in his first three starts: 19 hits given up and 10 earned runs.
Here's the problem with Plesac and why he's struggled so much: It really can just be boiled down to his fastball. Last season he threw it 44% of the time, opposing hitters had a .308 xBA against it and a .418 xwOBA. It had a Stuff+ rating of 76, which was bottom 20 among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings.
This season, he's throwing his slider more, trying to hide his fastball. Yes, he has a good slider, the Stuff+ on it is very good. But when you don't have another pitch outside of the slider, hitters can really key in on whatever pitch is going to be coming. He's also got a changeup which was also very bad last season: .358 xwOBA, 87 Stuff+ rating. So it's not a surprise to see him regress the way he has if hitters are able to key in on his fastball and changeup.
He'll be going against Braxton Garrett, who is just a perfectly average major league starting pitcher. In 17 starts last season he had a 4.05 xERA. He doesn't have the greatest stuff, but he has great command with a Location+ of 102 that has brought his Pitching+ up to 98. So I do give the Marlins the slight edge in the starting pitching matchup here.
The Guardians were also one of the worst lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching last season. Something else I brought up a couple pods ago is that the Guardians are also bottom-five in Defensive Runs Saved. I understand it's still a small sample size, but they were one of the best defensive teams in baseball last season, so when they don't have that type of advantage over a Marlins team that is just a very average defensive team, I don't really think Plesac should be this big of a favorite.
I like the Marlins at +120.
Astros vs. Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
Hunter Brown vs. Bryce Elder
Charlie DiSturco: I'm targeting the Astros over the first five innings here. Bryce Elder is one of the guys I've been looking to fade and this is a perfect spot to do it because the Astros are pretty undervalued at this point because they've been struggling to start the season.
I think this offense is going to get going against Elder. He's in the bottom 15% of pitchers in hard hit rate at nearly 50%. The barrel rate has jumped up, and control has also been an issue. Elder has definitely been due for regression from last season as he had a 4.25 xERA, which was over a run higher than his actual ERA. So when you look at his numbers just from a comparison standpoint it's pretty alarming. The Astros' lineup, for as bad as it's been so far with the slow starts from Jeremy Pena and Alex Bregman and the injuries, makes this is a great spot to back them.
Plus, Hunter Brown is one of those pitchers you want to back. Last year, he came in and was great. This year, he's been very good with a. .222 xBA, .311 xSLG and sub-5% barrel rate.
I like the Astros here at about even money as an underdog for the first five innings against the Braves.
Payoff Pitch Underdog Picks for Friday, April 21
- Marlins Moneyline
- Astros F5 Moneyline
At FanDuel, this parlay would pay out at +301 at the time of this writing.
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