The Marlins eked out a 5-4 win over the Cardinals last night to improve to 20-5 in one-run games this season. However, with Adam Wainwright getting the ball for the Cardinals today, the Marlins may be able to create some separation.
There was a slugfest in Texas as the Astros outlasted the Rangers, 12-11. It was a great game for hitting props as the teams combined for seven home runs. Kyle Tucker had a monster game and just missed the cycle by a triple. Back home against the Rockies today, Tucker is in another favorable spot.
In San Diego, Mike Trout likely will be out tonight as the Angels look to even up the series against the Padres. However, stars will still be aplenty, most notably Shohei Ohtani, who'll be on the mound for the Angels today.
Juan Soto believes that Ohtani will have a hard time against this Padres lineup, but Ohtani may have other ideas.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, July 4
Adam Wainwright Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-165)
| Cardinals vs. Marlins | |
| First Pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Adam Wainwright has enjoyed a long and illustrious career, however, 2023 hasn't gone well for him thus far. Through his first 10 starts, he has a 7.45 ERA, which more than doubles the 3.45 mark for his career.
Per Statcast, Wainwright has been a regression candidate for the last few years. From 2019-2022, his xERA was at least .63 higher than his ERA.
This year, his 7.57 xERA is roughly on par with his ERA.
His other analytics are not pretty either. Wainwright ranks in the one percentile of qualified pitchers in xBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage and fastball velocity.
He's been able to limit hard contact, but that hasn't helped him keep men off base. Wainwright has allowed at five hits in every start, and he has at least seven in eight of his 10 starts.
As a result, he also has a WHIP of 1.94, which is also a career-worst mark.
Wainwright has allowed at least three earned runs in nine of his 10 starts this season. In five of those starts, he's allowed at least four.
That includes his last two, which have seen him give up 13 earned runs against the Cubs and Astros.
That's why this line has so much juice. However, the implied odds of Wainwright giving up three earned runs today is -900 per props.cash, so we're still getting value here.
I wouldn't mind this play at 3.5 either, likely at plus odds.
Expect Luis Arraez to set the table for the Marlins out of the leadoff spot. Jorge Soler (+370) and Bryan De La Cruz (+750) are a couple of Marlins hitters worth considering for Dinger Tuesday.
Pick: Adam Wainwright Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
| Rockies vs. Astros | |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Kyle Tucker had a strong June, hitting .313 with four home runs, 16 runs batted in and a .899 OPS.
He's picked it up even more in July. Over his last three games, he's 7-for-12 (.583) with two home runs, six runs batted in and a 1.810 OPS.
Yesterday, he extended his hitting streak to 10 games with a 4-for-4 performance with a double and a grand slam.
Tucker will look to extend his hitting streak to 11 against Kyle Freeland. Despite being left-handed himself, facing left-handed pitchers hasn't fazed Tucker this season.
Against left-handed pitchers, Tucker is hitting .354 with four home runs, 20 runs batted in and a .954 OPS.
Freeland has a 5.92 ERA on the road and left-handers are hitting .268 against him.
In yesterday's game, Tucker faced another lefty in Martin Perez, and he doubled and hit the grand slam off him before the Astros chased him from the game in the second inning.
Tucker has recorded two total bases in six of his last 10 games, and he's averaging 3.3 in that span. He's also +420 to hit a home run on FanDuel, which would give him four total bases.
Without Yordan Alvarez in the lineup, the Astros will need Tucker to continue to carry the load as they look to overtake Texas and win the AL West again.
Tucker should continue to stay hot in this spot today.
Pick: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-104)
| Angels vs. Padres | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Shohei Ohtani doesn't do much trash-talking, but he's highly competitive.
He also likely saw this clip.
Ohtani very well may struggle against Juan Soto tonight. A lot of pitchers do, but I like Ohtani's chances against the majority of the Padres' lineup.
Against four-seam fastballs, Nelson Cruz is hitting .351 and slugging .595 while Soto is hitting .284 and slugging .617.
However, Ha-Seong Kim, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Matt Carpenter, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham, Gary Sanchez and Austin Nola are all hitting .247 or worse against four-seam fastballs.
All but Sanchez have produced a negative run value against the pitch as well.
Just guess who throws 100 mph? Yes, that would be Ohtani.
His average fastball velocity sits at 97 mph and he uses the pitch 38% of the time. The rest of his arsenal (slider, cutter, changeup and curveball) has left many hitters baffled this season.
Ohtani ranks third in MLB with 127 strikeouts in just 95 1/3 innings. He's recorded eight strikeouts in nine of 16 starts this season, including each of his last two.
He'll be facing a Padres lineup that's 15th in MLB in strikeout percentage. However, four consecutive starters have gone over their strikeout lines against the Padres, including Reds rookie Andrew Abbott, who had 12 on Sunday.
It wouldn't be a surprise if Ohtani reached double-digits tonight. You can take him for 10 strikeouts at +340 and 11 at +630 on FanDuel.
