We went 3-0 on MLB player props on Thursday on the strength of two walks props. On Friday, Connor Overton is another candidate to surrender a couple of walks. He has struggled to begin this season and will face the Phillies for the second time in a week.
The Rays just can't seem to lose. They trailed 3-1 before a seven-run fifth inning put them ahead for good en route to a 9-3 victory over the Red Sox. Randy Arozarena, who has been hot to begin this season, played a role in the comeback. He and the Rays now head to Toronto to battle Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays for their toughest test thus far.
Kyle Tucker is another hitter on a hot streak. His Astros will renew their in-state rivalry with the Rangers. Tucker has a strong track record against Rangers starter Martin Perez. I look for him to win that battle again.
Let's carry the momentum into the weekend.
MLB Player Props for Friday, April 14
Connor Overton Over 1.5 Walks (-110)
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Through his first two starts, Connor Overton has a 10.13 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP.
His WHIP is elevated because he has allowed 14 hits — and four walks — in just eight innings. Overton has walked 10.3% of the batters he has faced and ranks in the 42nd percentile in BB percentage. He has walked at least two batters in four of his last eight starts dating back to last season, including one this season. The over came in his last start against the Phillies on Sunday, when he walked three in four innings.
This time, Overton faces the Phillies at Great American Ball Park. Getting a second look at him so quickly may allow them to be even more selective since they're already familiar with his arsenal.
Overton will make his adjustments as well, and he will need to. He has yet to make it past the fourth inning this season and he has thrown 80 and 65 pitches in his two starts.
A better outing will allow him to work deep into the game and face more batters. That will increase the chances that he walks two batters and cashes this over.
Pick: Connor Overton Over 1.5 Walks (-110).
Randy Arozarena/Vladimir Guerrero Jr. One Hit Parlay (-115)
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays | |
| First Pitch | 7:07 PM ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Randy Arozarena began the year with a 10-game hitting streak. That ended on Tuesday, but he has recorded a hit in each of the last two games.
On Thursday, his RBI single in the fifth inning gave his team the lead for good en route to a 9-3 victory. Arozarena is hitting .314 with three home runs and 16 RBI. On Friday he gets Jose Berrios, who is struggling again this season. Arozarena is 4-for-8 with a double against Berrios in his career.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been even better this season. He is hitting .412 with two home runs and seven RBI. He ranks third in the Majors in batting average and has recorded two hits in seven of the 13 games he's played.
Guerrero gets a tough assignment with Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen has been nearly perfect through his first two starts with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.23 WHIP. However, he has not seen a lineup like the Blue Jays' thus far. Guerrero is 5-for-17 with one home run against Rasmussen in his career.
Arozarena has tallied at least one hit in 12-of-13 games this season while Guerrero Jr. has done so in 11-of-13. Those are over 80 and 90% hit rates and each of them have favorable matchups.
DraftKings has the best line for this combo at -115. FanDuel also has it, but at -134.
Pick: Randy Arozarena/Vladimir Guerrero Jr. One Hit Parlay (-115).
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
| Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros | |
| First Pitch | 8:05 PM ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Typically left-handed hitters struggle more against like-handed pitchers than right-handed hitters do.
That does not apply to Kyle Tucker and Martin Perez; Tucker is 7-for-16 with two doubles and four RBI against Perez.
Tucker is hitting .311 and is tied for eighth in MLB in home runs (four) and RBI (13). He ranks 11th in OPS (1.051) and has really been driving the ball well to begin this season — six of his 14 hits have gone for extra bases.
As a result of his hot start, Tucker is averaging 2.2 total bases per game and has covered this line in 7-of-13 games. He also has five multihit games.
Against Perez, I like Tucker's chances of covering this line either with an extra-base hit or another multihit game.
Pick: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110).
