We are rolling into another loaded Sunday slate fresh of a 2-1 Saturday. To close out the week, I'm targeting three more starters this afternoon who should have varying amounts of success.
So, let's see who we're banking on in the top three MLB player props for today's slate.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, April 23
Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Tigers vs. Orioles | |
| First Pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Coveted young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez will toe the slab for his fourth big league start this afternoon, and this may be the matchup where we all see his true potential.
It's clear Rodriguez's stuff has played well through his first three starts, as he's recorded 19 strikeouts in 14 innings pitched. That strikeout rate sits in the 80th percentile of all starters, but it has come against three lineups that are outside the top 15 in team strikeout rate.
This afternoon, he gets to face the team with the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors. Detriot's young lineup has proven quickly that it's liable to swing and miss quite often.
More than seven Tigers come into this matchup holding strikeout rates over 23% on the season, so Rodriguez will have a multitude of opportunities to rack up Ks.
Pick: Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Lucas Giolito Under 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (+145)
| White Sox vs. Rays | |
| First Pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
We've seen Lucas Giolito right the ship over his last two starts after having a rough start to the season. In both of his successful outings, he recorded 18 outs.
However, his success may be short-lived, as he's tasked with the top offense in the league, the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have been scolding hot as they enter leading the majors in average, homers, runs scored, wOBA and wRC+.
They also have the seventh lowest-strikeout rate in the majors. However, this start will not be an easy one for Giolito, and the battles he will have are likely to shorten his outing.
Aside from the matchup, history shows us just how inflated this price is due to his last few starts. Over his previous 34 starts, Giolito has gone under the total in 55.9% of them.
That gives us implied odds of -126 that he will go under again this afternoon.
Pick: Giolito Under 17.5 Outs
Jacob deGrom Under 19.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-115)
| Athletics vs. Rangers | |
| First Pitch | 2:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
In his last start, Jacob deGrom was firing on all cylinders. He dominated the Royals through four innings, holding them without a hit while racking up five strikeouts.
However, he would not come out for the fifth after leaving the game with a wrist issue. It was precautionary, but in his first start since, he has been given some lofty expectations from oddsmakers.
Let's start with his strikeout prop of 10.5. He has eclipsed that number only nine times in his last 31 starts. Although, we will be rooting for strikeouts here because the closer he gets to that total, the higher his pitch count will be.
In addition to the high strikeout total, he is also expected to go deep in this game. The current total would require him to get two outs in the seventh inning to go over.
The problem is that deGrom's strikeout total does not lend itself to going deep into this game. Over his last 31 starts, he has gone under this outs total 71% of the time.
That gives us implied odds of -244. Much like Giolito, this is tremendous line value that can't be passed up.
Pick: deGrom Under 19.5 Outs
