In Atlanta, the Diamondbacks have have taken the first two games of this series as the Braves have lost four games in a row. This afternoon, Arizona will send ace Zac Gallen to the mound for the sweep, and he will be opposed by NL All-Star teammate Spencer Strider. However, I will be fading Gallen in one area.
In Tampa, the Orioles and Rays will begin a huge four-game series with the teams tied for first place in the AL East. Tyler Glasnow will get the ball for game one of the series. That should favor the Rays, but Glasnow may not get many strikeouts.
Meanwhile, the Astros have won all six meetings against the Athletics this season, so they are probably excited about heading to Oakland for a four-game series. If they pull off their seventh win over the Athletics, Chas McCormick may lead the way. Here's a look at my three MLB props today.
MLB Player Props For July, 20
Zac Gallen Over 1.5 Walks (-135)
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves | |
| First Pitch | 12:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Zac Gallen is one of the betting co-favorites for the NL Cy Young Award, along with Spencer Strider. However, it is not because of his prowess on the road. Gallen is 9-0 with a 1.48 at Chase Field, but he is just 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA on the road. One reason for his struggles on the road is an increase in walks.
At home, Gallen has just nine walks in 10 starts, but he has 17 in 10 starts on the road. Gallen has walked at least two batters in four of his past six starts on the road. That includes three in his last start against a Blue Jays team that ranks 22nd in the Major Leagues in walks percentage.
Today, Gallen faces a Braves team that ranks 12th in the league in walks per game and seventh in walks percentage against right-handed pitchers. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have been on the road for the last week, and this game will begin just past noon for a team that plays in the Pacific time zone. It is possible that the early start may contribute to Gallen being uncomfortable on the road. He may walk two batters early in the game before he settles in.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 1.5 Walks
Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-156)
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Tyler Glasnow is one of the game's premier strikeout artists. I was going to back him last Friday night against the Royals, but the game was postponed due to rain. On Saturday, he finished just under his line of 7.5 strikeouts with seven. This time, I have to fade him with this matchup.
The oddsmakers know Glasnow can pile up the strikeouts, and in some cases it causes his lines to be a bit inflated. With last Saturday's start against the Royals, Glasnow has now gone under this line in seven of nine starts. We have a key number at 8.5, as he has finished with eight in two starts this season. However, we may have a bit of wiggle room here. The Orioles are just 22nd in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers this season. Glasnow finished with just seven strikeouts in his first start against the Orioles in June.
Additionally, manager Kevin Cash is pretty cautious with his starters in general and Glasnow is not far removed from returning from Tommy John surgery. Glasnow has completed six full innings in just three starts this season. He pitched just 4 and 1/3 innings and gave up six runs in his last start against the Orioles.
The Orioles have been hot offensively, but I wouldn't expect another six spot. However, they will make Glasnow work and run his pitch count up. If so, Glasnow may have to get nine strikeouts in six or fewer innings to go over this line.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 Strikeouts |
Chas McCormick To Record Two Total Bases (+120)
| Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics | |
| First Pitch | 9:41 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Few hitters have come out of the All-Star break hotter than Chas McCormick. With a home run in yesterday's game, McCormick has hit four home runs in five games since the All-Star break. However, his hot streak goes back much further. Over his last 30 games, McCormick has hit .330 with a 1.041 OPS and eight of his 12 home runs on the season.
McCormick is +500 on DraftKings to hit a home run again tonight. However, when he is not hitting home runs, he has still been getting on base. McCormick has recorded a hit in 12 of his past 14 games. He has six multi-hit games in that span. Another two-hit game would clear this line, which may occur against Hogan Harris.
McCormick is hitting .321 with six doubles, three home runs, and a 1.014 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. He struck out in his only at-bat against Harris. However, Harris has allowed 13 doubles and five home runs to right-handed hitters this season. McCormick is averaging 2.6 total bases over his last 10 games. Between his favorable splits and recent streak, I like him to get two in this spot.
Pick: Chas McCormick Over 1.5 Total Bases |
