After a fun All-Star Week in which Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the Home Run Derby and the National League snapped its losing streak in the All-Star game, baseball returns with a full slate tonight. In some ways, tonight is like a mini-version of Opening Day.
Many teams use the break to reset their rotations and get their best starters back on the mound. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow certainly fits that description, and he'll get a second look at the Royals after piling up the strikeouts against them earlier this season.
In Atlanta, the Braves will look to continue their dominance when they host the White Sox. Expect NL MVP frontrunner Ronald Acuna Jr. to be right in the middle of things.
However, let's begin in Pittsburgh, where Ross Stripling and the Giants will be visiting the Pirates.
MLB Player Props For Friday, July 14
Ross Stripling Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-160)
| San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Ross Stripling's numbers haven't been pretty this season. He has a 6.37 ERA, so you may be wondering why I am targeting the under.
Well, Stripling has been a tad bit unlucky and has a 5.75 xERA. Additionally, a rough start to the season ran up his ERA as he posted a 7.24 ERA over his first nine appearances (five starts). Lately, the Giants have used him as an opener. He has a 3.12 ERA in 8 2/3 innings over his past three appearances, two of which were starts.
Stripling may only have to make it through the lineup once on Friday night. That being said, I also like his chances if he does go five or six innings. The Pirates are 24th in both wRC+ and on-base percentage. They also scored three runs or fewer in each of their past four games.
Stripling has gone under this number in each of his past three appearances and I like his chances of making it four in a row.
Pick: Ross Stripling Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-130)
| Chicago White Sox vs. Atlanta Braves | |
| First Pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Since June 1, the Atlanta Braves are 27-6. In that stretch, they averaged 6.6 runs per game and were led by Ronald Acuna Jr. Acuna scored 31 runs, an average of nearly a run per game. He also had 10 homers and 24 RBI during that span.
I also like the over on Acuna's total bases, but given the matchup against Michael Kopech, I prefer this combo. Kopech's stuff is electric, but he struggles with command at times. He has walked 49 batters in 86 innings and has walked at least three batters in nine of his 16 starts this season. He will also be making his first start since June 27, meaning he could struggle finding the strike zone early.
Acuna has 44 walks and 41 stolen bases this season. Let's imagine he draws a leadoff walk and steals a base in the bottom of the first inning. That would immediately put him in scoring position, and Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy and Matt Olson all have at least 44 RBI this season.
Of course, Acuna is also in scoring position when he steps in the batter's box. A home run would cash this combo immediately and Kopech has allowed 17 home runs this season. Acuna is on an eight-game hitting streak at home and has a hit in eight of his past 10 games overall. He has hit this line in five of his past six home games and I expect him to come out of the break fast.
Pick: Ronald Acuna Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Editor's note: This game has been postponed because of inclement weather.
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
For my last play, I'm going back to a well that has been very profitable this season — fading the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are fourth in baseball with a 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. They are also 30th in wRC+ and six of the past seven starters that faced the Royals have gone over their strikeouts prop.
Tyler Glasnow had 12 strikeouts in his previous start against Kansas City. This will be the ninth start Glasnow has made since returning from Tommy John surgery, and although he's completed six innings just once, he won't need long to go over this line.
Glasnow has 64 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings this season and only needed five innings to record 12 strikeouts against Kansas City in his last start against them. He ranks in the 97th percentile in both whiff percentage and strikeout percentage and is averaging 1.55 strikeouts per inning.
There is also some value in backing Glasnow to climb the strikeouts ladder against Kansas City. You can bet him to get 11 strikeouts at +520 and 12 at +900 on FanDuel.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts |
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