We were just one Logan Allen strikeout away from having a winning day on MLB props on Saturday. However, that means we are on the right track for Sunday's slate. I've zeroed in on another trio of starters whose props have some significant value.
Let's see who they are and how we're betting them in today's top MLB player props, with picks for Ben Lively, Michael Kopech and Zac Gallen.
MLB Player Props Today: Odds, Picks Best Bets For Sunday, June 4
Ben Lively over 4.5 strikeouts -130
| Brewers vs. Reds | Reds -120 |
| First Pitch | 1:40 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Ben Lively has been a diamond in the rough for the Cincinnati Reds. The 31-year-old right-hander has revived his career with Cincinnati and has done so in impressive fashion.
In five appearances, three of which are starts, he's pitched to a 1.99 ERA and holds a 0.93 WHIP. He's been excellent at limiting contact, as he ranks in the top 25 percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velo and hard-hit and strikeout rates.
This afternoon, he'll be tasked with a Brewers lineup that has cooled off significantly since their hot start in April. Milwaukee comes into this matchup with the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors, and Lively should be able to capitalize on that.
He has struck out at least six batters in all three of his starts this year, and today's matchup will be his best to date regarding strikeout potential. So back Lively to go over this total once again.
Pick: Over 4.5 strikeouts
Michael Kopech under 7.5 strikeouts -145
| Tigers vs. White Sox | White Sox -175 |
| First Pitch | 2:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
It appears that Michael Kopech has finally begun to put it all together at the big-league level, as his last three outings have been dominant. He's struck out 29 batters over his previous three starts and held the opposition scoreless in two of them.
However, his recent hot stretch has inflated his strikeout total this afternoon. While the total may also be because he's facing the Detroit Tigers, a closer look reveals that the Tigers have been much better than given credit.
Detroit is a team that was a staple in the top five in team strikeout rate, but they have made adjustments as the season has gone along, and they are at 11th entering this matchup.
As for Kopech, he has only gone over this total in six of his last 36 starts. That gives us implied odds of -500 that he will go under this afternoon.
Regression is coming for Kopech. So it's best to sell high on him today.
Pick: Under 7.5 strikeouts
Zac Gallen over 5.5 strikeouts -140
| Braves vs. Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks -140 |
| First Pitch | 4:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Zac Gallen has established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is on his way to posting the best season of his young career, as he is top five in wins, ERA, and WHIP while also ranking in the top 10 in strikeouts.
This afternoon, he'll have a challenging task in front of him with the Atlanta Braves. No team in the majors makes more hard contact than Atlanta, but with all that power, there is some swing-and-miss. The Braves are 15th in team strikeout rate but have eight hitters on their roster with above-average strikeout rates.
In addition to the matchup, Gallen has proven time and time again that this total is too low. He has gone over this total in nine of 12 starts this season, which adds to a hit rate of 60.5 percent over his last 43 starts.
That over rate gives us implied odds of -152 that he'll go over again today. Back the surging Gallen, as good pitching beats good hitting.
Pick: Over 5.5 strikeouts -140
