I want to wish a Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there and to all the children that have yet to get their dads a gift. I've got you covered with my top MLB props today for Sunday, June 18.
Today's MLB props and the odds and expert picks feature best bets on Luke Weaver in Reds vs Astros, Chris Bassitt in Blue Jays vs Rangers, and Zack Wheeler in Phillies vs Athletics.
Let's dive into the plays so you can go out and get your dad something nice with the winnings.
MLB Player Props Today For Sunday, June 18th
Luke Weaver Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-160)
| Reds vs. Astros | |
| First Pitch | 2:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Luke Weaver's return to a big league starting rotation has not exactly been the most successful one, as he enters this start with a 6.23 ERA. However, Weaver has proven to be adept at racking up strikeouts this season, and his total this afternoon is far too low, even in a tough matchup.
The Reds righty is not an overpowering pitcher. Instead, he relies on deception by changing speeds. He's done so tremendously thanks to his changeup, which has a 34.3 percent whiff rate.
Houston will have to be wary of that changeup — and speaking of Houston, their strikeout numbers are deceiving. They might be 24th in team strikeout rate, but they have six hitters on their roster with strikeout rates above the league average.
Weaver should be able to replicate his success against the Astros. He's gone over this total in seven of his 10 starts this season, giving us implied odds of -233 that he'll go over again.
Pick: Over 3.5 strikeouts
Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts (-137)
| Blue Jays vs. Rangers | |
| First Pitch | 2:35 pm ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Chris Bassitt has come into his own after a rough first month in a Blue Jays uniform. He had a 2.43 ERA in May, and while his last outing against Baltimore was a clunker, his track record shows he's bound to bounce back.
Now, doing that is easier said than done, especially against the Texas Rangers, but fortunately for us, we are focusing on one area of his start. Bassitt is not your prototypical strikeout pitcher, but he has proven this total is too low for him.
He has surpassed this total in 11 of his 14 starts this season, and that builds an even longer trend. Bassitt has recorded at least five punchouts in 64.4 percent of his past 45 starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -181. So even in an average matchup, we can count on Bassitt to deliver.
Pick: Over 4.5 strikeouts
Zack Wheeler Under 8.5 strikeouts (-130)
| Phillies vs. Athletics | |
| First Pitch | 4:07 pm ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Zack Wheeler has pitched like the ace of the Phillies staff, and this afternoon, he has the best possible matchup for a starting pitcher as he takes on the Oakland Athletics.
However, Wheeler's plus matchup has books giving him lofty expectations, and history shows that his totals are inflated.
Now he certainly has the strikeout upside in this matchup, as the A's have the fifth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors. We've also seen Wheeler record a 12-strikeout game this year, but that is an outlier and far from his norm.
Wheeler has gone under this total in 11 of his 14 starts this season and has built on a longstanding trend, having not eclipsed this total in 89.1 percent of his last 46 starts.
That rate gives us staggering implied odds of -819. This is the top play on the board from that perspective — and it also helps that our Action Labs projections have him slated for 7.9 strikeouts.
Pick: Under 8.5 strikeouts
