The first Saturday slate of the 2023 MLB season is here, and every team will be in action. So while many may believe today is about the Final Four, the men on the diamond could very well steal the show.
So, with a boatload of games on tap, let's not waste any more time and dive into our top three MLB player props for Saturday's slate.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, April 1
Spencer Strider Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)
| Braves vs. Nationals | |
| First Pitch | 4:05 pm ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
With Jacob DeGrom in Texas, Justin Verlander on the shelf and Corbin Burnes scuffling, the door is wide open for Spencer Strider to begin his National League Cy Young Award campaign for 2023.
Last season, Strider burst onto the scene and was absolutely dominant. His electric stuff allowed him to rack up 202 strikeouts in 131 innings. One of his best performances came against this Nationals team, against which he struck out 11 and allowed just one hit over five-plus innings.
Strider looked to be in mid-season form this spring, with a 1.69 ERA and 21 batters in 16 innings in Grapefruit League play. However, he was not stretched out that much. That means we may only see him for five innings, but he's been very efficient and has the potential to fly over this number.
Pick: Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Pick: Spencer Strider Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122) |
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Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
| Orioles vs. Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 4:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
The Red Sox star third baseman has one of the best matchups on the slate today. He gets to face Orioles starter Dean Kremer, who he's not only had success against in the past but is due for even more.
These two have faced off 12 times, and Devers is 3-for-11. However, his three hits include a home run and double. In total, he's put the ball in play eight times against Kremer and has an average exit velocity of 102.1 mph.
On top of his solid history against Kremer, Devers already appears to be seeing the ball well. On Opening Day, he went 2-for-5, but his three balls put in play had an average exit velocity of 93.4 mph, and his max exit velocity was 106.1 mph.
Devers is in line for a great day at the plate, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him get his first homer of the season against Baltimore.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases
Madison Bumgarner Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105)
| Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers | |
| First Pitch | 9:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Putting it simply, Madison Bumgarner is washed. Last season was a clear indication of that, as he posted a career-high 4.88 ERA and was one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball.
Bumgarner finished 2022 ranking in the bottom 10% in average exit velocity, xBA and xSLG, and he was in the bottom 5% in whiff rate. He can't miss bats anymore, and that level of contact is a recipe for disaster against this Dodgers lineup.
While this is not the same Dodgers order from last season, it still has plenty of hitters who were a part of the onslaughts against Bumgarner in 2022. Los Angeles faced him three times last season and had at least six hits in two of the starts.
When it comes to hits, it wasn't just the Dodgers who were clobbering Bumgarner. He allowed at least six hits in 19 of his 30 starts. However, he fell off even harder after April, as he went over this total in 18 of his final 25 starts.
That sample size from April on gives us implied odds of -316 that he'll go over again tonight.
