The dust has settled from a wild trade deadline, and we will get to see many of the new acquisitions make their debuts for their new clubs today.
While players will be looking to make great first impressions, I've found three starters who have quite a bit of history heading into their respective outings today.
Let's dive in and see who is featured in our top MLB player props for Saturday's slate.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, August 5
Nestor Cortes Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-108)
| Astros vs. Yankees | |
| First Pitch | 1:05 pm ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
"Nasty" Nestor Cortes will return to the Yankees after over two months on the IL. His return will come at home against a key rival in the Houston Astros.
While Cortes has a tough matchup ahead of him, he's being undervalued in the strikeout department. Prior to his injury in May, Cortes was averaging a strikeout per inning.
The Astros are not a team to target for strikeout props, as they own the fourth-lowest team strikeout rate in the majors, but we have multiple things working in our favor when we back Cortes.
First, he's proven he can sail over this total with ease. He has gone over this total in nine of his 11 starts this season, and that only feeds into a longer trend. He's surpassed this mark in 73.8% of his last 42 starts. That gives us implied odds of -281 that he'll go over again this afternoon.
Lastly, we have projections in our favor. Our Action Labs projections have Cortes slated for five strikeouts today. This over is the top play on the slate, according to projections.
Pick: Cortes Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-108) |
Javier Assad Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| Braves vs. Cubs | |
| First Pitch | 2:20 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Javier Assad will be the opener for the Chicago Cubs this afternoon. This will be just the fourth time Assad will serve as an opener in his young career, and his strikeout total is giving him much more credit than he deserves.
Assad is no stranger to long relief appearances, as we've seen him go as long as three innings on multiple occasions this season.
However, what we haven't seen is an efficient strikeout rate. In Assad's 19 appearances this season, he has recorded four or more strikeouts in only four of them.
He may also be due for strikeout regression with his whiff rate sitting in just the 15th percentile. Batters are not being fooled by him often, as his chase rate ranks in the fifth percentile.
Lastly, we need to factor in that he's facing the best offense in baseball today. The Braves have torn the cover off the ball this season and have done a great job at cutting down on strikeouts.
This total is too high for Assad, and with his tough matchup, he may not be around long enough to get close to it.
Pick: Assad Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135) |
Steven Matz Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)
| Rockies vs. Cardinals | |
| First Pitch | 7:15 pm ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
There may not be a better bet on the board today than this Steven Matz under.
Yes, Colorado is a good team to target for strikeout props as it hold the four-highest team strikeout rate in the majors, but Matz is not the pitcher to capitalize on the matchup.
Matz has gone under this total at a staggering rate of 84.2% over his last 38 appearances. That rate gives us implied odds of -533 that he will go under again tonight.
Additionally, Matz hasn't given us any reason to think he'll turn it around, as his strikeout rate is the second-lowest mark of his career, and his whiff rate sits in the 48th percentile.
Our Action Labs projections also love this under. They have Matz slated for 5.1 strikeouts, which is another A+ edge to go along with the one above.
Pick: Matz Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-128) |
