Yesterday, pigs may have flown as Logan Webb was rocked by the Nationals, and the Braves offense was shut down by Adrian Houser. Those two anomalies led to a losing Saturday, but we are back with three more MLB player props for Sunday's slate.
Let's dive in and find out why Luis Medina, Aaron Nola and Christian Walker give us a chance to end the weekend strong.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, July 23rd
Christian Walker Over 1.5 Total Bases -115
| Diamondbacks vs. Reds | Arizona -112 |
| First Pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Billy Ward of the Action Network has dubbed Great American Ballpark as "Coors Field East," and today it will undoubtedly play like it when the Diamondbacks and Reds wrap up their series.
The market has adjusted to an uptick in runs at Great American Ballpark this season, as the game total is set at 11. While that is a tad too high for my liking, we can find value by backing individual batters in this matchup.
There are many solid options, but one of the best is Christian Walker. Walker is Arizona's power-hitting first baseman who has shown that he can hit righties this season. For years, he primarily crushed left-handed pitching, but this season, he's hitting .271 with 14 homers and an .850 OPS off right-handers.
He will get his first few turns at bat against the Reds' starter, Luke Weaver. Weaver has been knocked around this season as he enters with a 7.22 ERA and ranks in the bottom 6% in xBA and xSLG.
Walker is a prime candidate to go yard this afternoon, which is worth a sprinkle, but that upside makes his total-bases prop one of the best on the slate.
Pick: Christian Walker Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Aaron Nola Over 4.5 Strikeouts -135
| Phillies vs. Guardians | Philadelphia -130 |
| First Pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Aaron Nola has underperformed this season as he enters with a 4.27 ERA through 20 starts. However, the Phillies' ace pitched much better in July and is still due for some positive regression, as his xERA of 3.67 indicates.
One reason for his struggles in the first half of the season is that he's not missing bats like last year.
Missing fewer bats than last season has been a big reason for his struggles in 2023. His Strikeout Rate is down 4%, and that increase in contact has led to more hard contact.
However, this drop in Strikeout Rate and a tough matchup against the Guardians this afternoon has led to a strikeout prop that is far too low at 4.5 strikeouts, which is disrespectful.
Nola has surpassed this number in nine of his last 10 starts, building an even longer track record of success. He's eclipsed this number in 84.2% of his previous 57 starts.
That gives us staggering implied odds of -533 that he will go over again this afternoon.
Pick: Aaron Nola Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
Luis Medina Under 17.5 Outs Recorded -125
| Astros vs. Athletics | Houston -240 |
| First Pitch | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Luis Medina was a highly touted prospect, but he has yet to show any consistency at the big-league level. He enters his 14th start of the season with a 5.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
Medina's issues stem from his command, as his Walk Rate ranks in the 14th percentile among qualified major-league pitchers. However, his lack of command has also led to mistakes in the zone, as he ranks in the 27th percentile in Hard-hit Rate and 23rd percentile in Average Exit Velocity.
This afternoon he'll be up against a Houston Astros lineup that has been riddled with critical injuries but still has plenty of talent. The Astros should get to Medina and continue the trend of him hitting the showers early.
After all, Medina has only gone six innings in three of his nine starts this season. The odds of him tallying a fourth mark are far less likely than the price we're getting this afternoon.
Pick: Luis Medina Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
