We're in a strong spot to finish the weekend in the green after Alex Cobb and Luis Arraez helped give us a profitable Saturday. With 15 more games slated for Sunday, I have found another three players who show great value in the prop market.
So, let's not waste any more time and dive right into the top MLB player props of the slate.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, July 16
Kolby Allard Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
| White Sox vs. Braves | |
| First Pitch | 1:35 pm ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Kolby Allard made a tremendous first impression, returning to the Braves' rotation by striking out eight Twins in four innings of work in his first start since 2021.
However, since then, he has begun to look like the Allard we've seen in years past. He turned in a decent five innings against Cleveland and then allowed two runs in a relief appearance against Tampa Bay.
Now for his third start of the season, Allard will be facing the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox are not a formidable lineup, but they have multiple players who have proven they can crush left-handed pitching.
On top of the tough matchup, Allard is due for sizable regression in the strikeout department. His first start of this season has highly inflated his strikeout rate, as he's been nearly 6% lower for the duration of his career.
In fact, if we look back to 2021 when Allard made 17 starts for the Texas Rangers, he went under this total in 12 of them. We're getting a tremendous price on the under this afternoon.
Pick: Allard Under 4.5 Strikeouts |
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
| Rays vs. Royals | |
| First Pitch | 2:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | Caesars |
Brady Singer will take the mound for the Kansas City Royals this afternoon, and he's a guy to fade in all facets of the game. He has been one of the hardest-hit pitchers in the majors, as his hard-hit rate of 52.3% ranks in the first percentile of the league.
Fortunately for us, he'll be up against one of the best lineups in baseball in the Tampa Bay Rays. We get to back their best hitter in Randy Arozarena, who has been crushing the ball this season. He comes in with a hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity that each rank in the top 8% of all qualified hitters.
Lastly, if Arozarena needed any more help today, the park and weather will be in his favor. Kauffman Stadium features one of the largest outfields in baseball, which means there will be space in the gaps. Additionally, temperatures will reach 91 degrees in Kansas City, and the wind will be blowing out.
Arozarena is one of the best hitters to back on the slate.
Pick: Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Bobby Miller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| Dodgers vs. Mets | |
| First Pitch | 5:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Bobby Miller, the Dodgers' young flamethrower, will be making his ninth big league start this evening. His first eight starts have been two very different streaks, as he looked dominant in the first four but has been rocked in the last four.
Despite his recent struggles, we all know Miller has above-average big-league stuff, and players have had a tough time hitting it. If you want more detail on his stuff, check out Anthony Dabbundo's best bet for today.
All signs point to Miller getting back on track tonight, as his x ERA comes in over half a run lower than his season ERA. A bounce-back outing is sure to include strikeouts, as we've already seen him surpass this total in six of his eight outings.
Back Miller to blow away the Mets.
Pick: Miller Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
