We were one Kyle Hendricks strikeout away from a winning day on Saturday. However, our luck is bound to turn this Sunday as I've found three more strikeout props with value on them.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, June 11th
Louie Varland Over 4.5 Strikeouts +112
| Twins vs. Blue Jays | Toronto -205 |
| First Pitch | 1:37 pm ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Louie Varland has been a great addition to the back end of the Minnesota Twins' rotation. He enters this start with a 4.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP but has shown he can rack up strikeouts.
While he has a tough matchup this afternoon, this total is still too low for him. Varland has made 13 career starts, with eight of them coming this season. He has surpassed this total in eight of those 13 starts, which gives us implied odds of -160 that he'll go over again today.
The Blue Jays are a great team in terms of putting the ball in play, but the likes of Nathan Lukes, Cavan Biggio and Matt Chapman all have well above-average Strikeout Rates, so there is a clear path for Varland to exceed this total.
Pick: Louie Varland Over 4.5 Ks |
Blake Snell Over 5.5 Strikeouts -120
| Padres vs. Rockies | San Diego -190 |
| First Pitch | 3:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
It has been an up-and-down 2023 campaign for Blake Snell thus far, but his strikeout upside has remained consistent. Snell will make his 13th start of the season in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field, but the ball can't carry in the air if it isn't put in play.
The Colorado Rockies have begun to climb the leaderboard for team Strikeout Rate as they sit at 12th entering this matchup. Snell has already contributed to that rate as he sat down nine Rockies on strikes in his first start of this season back on March 30th.
Snell has surpassed this total in six of 12 starts this season, but a longer trend points to him having success this afternoon. Over his last 40 starts, Snell has recorded at least six strikeouts 60% of the time.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -149, which is solid line value at the current number. Lastly, our Action Labs projections love the over, as they have him pegged for 6.4 strikeouts.
Pick: Blake Snell Over 5.5 Ks |
Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 Strikeouts -150
| Cubs vs. Giants | San Francisco -140 |
| First Pitch | 4:05 pm ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
While Varland's line above was low due to the tough matchup, Hayden Wesneski's strikeout total is too low in one of the best possible matchups. The Cubs' rookie right-hander will get to face the San Francisco Giants this afternoon, and they have been the team to target for strikeout props.
The Giants enter this matchup with the second-highest Strikeout Rate in the majors at 25.8%. They strikeout out over 3%more than the league average, and this is the edge Wesneski needs to exceed this total.
While Wesneski typically does not go more than five innings, he has shown he can be efficient as he has surpassed this total in nine of 13 career starts.
That nice 69% hit rate gives us implied odds of -233, which makes the juice worth the squeeze.
Pick: Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 Ks |
