Over the last two years, Tuesday has become one of my favorite days for MLB prop betting. FanDuel has its "Dinger Tuesday" promo, which allows bettors to place straight home run bets on their favorite hitters and earn bonus bets for every home run in those individual games. If someone picks the right games, they could break even whether their batter goes yard or not.
While there could be homers flying, it could be an offensive night in general. Tonight will be the first turn through the rotation for many teams, which means a lot of teams will be on their fifth starting pitchers. These hitters may take advantage.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, April 4
Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
| Cubs vs. Reds | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This offseason, the Cubs signed Dansby Swanson to a seven year, $177 million deal. Four games in, they have gotten an excellent return on their investment. So far this season, Swanson is hitting .588 with two runs batted in and a 1.317 OPS. He has recorded three hits in three of the first four games, becoming the first Cubs player to do so in over 100 years.
It would be nice if Swanson got three hits again, but we could clear this line with a double. Swanson already has two doubles this season. The opportunity will be there against Luis Cessa. Last year, the right-hander had a 4.57 ERA and he has a 4.13 ERA for his career. Cessa allowed 16 extra base hits, (10 home runs) a .253 batting average and .487 slugging percentage to right-handed batters last season.
Swanson hit for a higher average against lefties last season, but 22 of his 32 doubles and 19 of his 25 home runs came against right-handers last season. This year, he is already 6-for-9 against right-handers.
While that will regress, Swanson is swinging a hot bat right now and I am going to back him. It does not hurt that he is playing at Great American Ballpark either.
Pick: Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125)
| Yankees vs. Phillies | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Aaron Judge hit two home runs in the Yankees' opening series of the year against the Giants. Many expected him to homer last night as well. He entered last night's game 4-for-11 with four home runs against Taijuan Walker.
While Judge did not hit a home run last night, he did go 1-for-4 with a run scored. Judge has gone over this line in all four games he has played in this season. On the year, he is hitting .380 (8-for-21) with four runs scored and four runs batted in. That means he is averaging four hits + runs + runs batted in per game to begin this season. We just need to cash this over.
Judge can hit this over with one swing if he goes yard again. His odds are +235 to homer on FanDuel. He will have a good chance facing the left-hander Matt Strahm to start the game. The Phillies will be using Strahm as an opener and how long he pitches is undetermined.
However, given Judge's hot start to the year, he should clear this line against either Strahm or the Phillies bullpen.
Pick: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-125)
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
| Pirates vs. Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Offense was on display at Fenway Park yet again on Monday with a 7-6 Pirates victory. In a losing effort, Devers kicked off the scoring for the Red Sox with a 424-foot solo home run to dead center field. While it was the first home run of the year for Devers, he has been hitting the ball with authority.
He is hitting .421 with an 1.134 OPS. He has recorded two hits in three of his first four games. Three of them have gone for extra bases with two doubles and the aforementioned home run. He has totaled 13 bases this season for an average of 3.25 per game. Devers can clear this line with two singles or one extra base hit. Last season, Devers had 42 doubles and 27 home runs in 141 games.
The Pirates will start Roansy Contreras in tonight's game and Devers is 0-for-2 against him in his career. However, Devers hit .305 with a .931 OPS and 23 home runs against right-handed pitchers. Contreras also worked into the six inning in just six of 18 starts last season.
With this being his first start of the season, I expect the Pirates to remain cautious with their young right-hander. If Devers does not get it done against Contreras, he could have multiple ABs against the Pirates bullpen. For comparison, this line is -160 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
If you want to use the aforementioned players for Dinger Tuesday, here are their HR odds on FanDuel:
- Swanson (+360)
- Judge (+235)
- Devers (+320)
