Two very impressive outlier performances from Garrett Crochet and MacKenzie Gore kept us from winning yesterday. However, we are prime to finish the week strong as there are more arms to target on Sunday.
Let's meet the three starting pitchers we're betting on this afternoon in our MLB player props for Sunday, April 14.
MLB Player Props Sunday, April 14
We kick things off in Boston, where the Los Angeles Angels will give the ball to Tyler Anderson. Anderson has been lights out through his first two starts of the season, as he's yet to allow an earned run in 14 innings of work.
However, the veteran lefty has recorded just eight strikeouts in his first two outings and, despite a good matchup this afternoon, is getting too much love from the oddsmakers.
Anderson faces a Boston Red Sox lineup that holds the fourth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors, but Anderson is the perfect balance to them as he's struck out just 15% of the batters he's faced this season.
Since 2022, Anderson has gone under this total 68% of the time in 60 appearances, 55 of which have been starts. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -213 that he will go under again this afternoon.
This under is also well supported by our friends at Action Labs. They have him slated for just 5.7 strikeouts this afternoon.
Pick: Tyler Anderson Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
The fade train keeps chugging along, and our next stop is in Baltimore, where Orioles ace Corbin Burnes will get to face his former team for the first time.
Burnes has looked the part of a dominant ace on a team with World Series aspirations, but the Milwaukee Brewers know him well, and the odds may be too high with the revenge narrative playing a part.
This Milwaukee lineup is filled with scrappy young hitters who have done an excellent job at putting the ball in play this season. Overall, the Brewers have seven hitters who strike out much less than the league average.
Their only regular bat in the lineup that has been susceptible to strikeouts is rookie Jackson Churio. So, it's safe to say that this is one of the tougher matchups you can find for a pitcher looking for strikeouts.
In addition to the matchup, Burnes has gone under this total 65% of the time since 2022. That equates to implied odds of -186.
So even though we've seen Burnes' strikeout upside this season, the smart move is to fade him today.
Pick: Corbin Burnes Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Our last stop on the fade train is on the south side of Chicago. Graham Ashcraft will take the ball for the Cincinnati Reds today, and he has been a tricky guy to figure out when it comes to strikeout props.
On the surface, he has tremendous stuff. Ashcraft features a cutter and sinker that both exceed 95 miles per hour and a slider that has a 43.3% whiff rate this season.
However, based on his long-term results, this total appears to be too high for him. Ashcraft has gone under this number 72% of the time in his 47 career starts.
With implied odds of -257, the edge is clear. Plus, this under is a top play projection-wise, as Action Labs has him slated for just four strikeouts this afternoon.
Pick: Graham Ashcraft Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-142)
