We have a loaded MLB slate on Wednesday with every single team in action, including a pair of doubleheaders thanks to two postponements on Tuesday. From afternoon baseball all the way through a late night bout between the National League’s best — the Phillies and Dodgers — what can get better than this?
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest over the last couple of weeks.
Let's dive into my MLB props preview & hitter picks for Wednesday.
Charlie DiSturco's MLB Props Preview & Hitter Picks for Wednesday (Aug. 7)
Batter vs. Pitcher Historical Matchups
Jose Ramirez vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP): It’s Rodriguez’s season and Diamondbacks debut on Wednesday. He’ll take the mound in Game 2 of the Diamondbacks-Guardians doubleheader and get a familiar face in Ramirez. In 24 at-bats, Ramirez is hitting .250 with two home runs against the southpaw.
Jorge Polanco vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP): There aren’t many familiar matchups on Wednesday’s slate where the hitter has the edge. In this one between Polanco and Skubal, it’s pretty even, with Polanco batting .250 across 20 at-bats vs. Skubal. He does have a home run and a double.
Josh Bell vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP): Also in Game 2 of the Snakes-Guardians doubleheader, Bell has faced Carrasco 19 times in his career. The switch-hitter has a .333 average against Carrasco with two doubles. He does not have a home run.
Austin Riley vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP): In 14 plate appearances against Peralta in his career, Riley is hitting .385 with a home run. That is his only extra-base hit (four singles).
There are three other hitters, alongside Ramirez, with 2+ home runs off an opposing pitcher on today’s slate. All three have logged less than seven plate appearances, crushing their opposition. Ketel Marte has two home runs in five at-bats vs. Ben Lively.
Ryan Mountcastle is hitting .800 against Bowden Francis with two home runs and a double while Adolis Garcia has two home runs in seven at-bats against Yusei Kikuchi.
Ballpark With the Largest Expected Home Run Boost Due To Weather
Let me start by saying the weather seems to be working against home runs on Wednesday. Most parks have the wind blowing in and there’s only one game where a double-digit home run boost is expected — and that game is based off a 29-game sample size.
But let’s still talk about it. The Giants and Nationals wrap up a three-game series on Wednesday in what very well could be a game that gets rained out. Thunderstorms are expected with 8 mph winds in from right field.
Yet still, there’s a +10.1% home run boost expected in a matchup between southpaw Blake Snell and right-hander Jake Irvin, per RotoGrinders' WeatherEdge system.
Irvin has much improved on the mound in his sophomore season, dropping his xERA down over a full run. He remains in the 30-35th percentile in barrels and hard-hit rate allowed, however, and has been home-run prone all season.
In his last 10 starts, Irvin has allowed at least one home run on eight occasions (80%). He has allowed 2+ in three of those games (30%). Irvin notably struggles against left-handed hitters, allowing a .247 average and .746 OPS vs. .211 and .605, respectively.
Michael Conforto (+425) has been seeing the ball extremely well of late and could continue to be a buy. The lefty is hitting .381 over his last seven days with a pair of home runs and four doubles. He has been over his 1.5 total bases prop in each of the last four games.
Mike Yastrzemski (+310) has struggled over the last week or so, but ranks second on the team in home runs (8) against right-handed pitching and carries a 111 wRC+. He and LaMonte Wade Jr. (+470 to HR, 130 wRC+ vs. LHP) both have been plus bats against righties all season long, though the latter has not hit for much power.
Opposite Irvin will be Blake Snell, who is fresh off a no-hitter against the Reds. Few players have been as dialed in as Snell since July, as the lefty has thrown 33 innings of two-run ball.
The Nationals have struggled against left-handed pitching this season and with Lane Thomas and Nick Senzel gone, just one hitter has more than two home runs against southpaws (CJ Abrams, 3).
Juan Yepez (+550) is an intriguing name solely because of his 229 wRC+ across 24 plate appearances. Three of his 10 hits have gone for extra bases, but he does not have a HR yet against a lefty.
While this game does have a home run boost expected, proceed with some caution. I would look toward the Giants mostly here, who get a way better matchup than the Nats facing a locked-in Snell.
Who’s Hot?
We talked about Josh Bell’s success against Carlos Carrasco earlier — he remains No. 1 on the rolling xwOBA list thanks to a 2-for-5 performance on Monday. He tripled in that game and remains a viable option vs. Cleveland in Game 2.
Joc Pederson is on another planet himself right now. Over the last 15 days, the lefty has hit .385 with a 1.592 OPS. Yup, you’ve read that right. He has hit five home runs, walked seven times and has a 70% extra-base-hit rate.
Yainer Diaz (+630) gets a good matchup against Jose Urena. Looking to stay locked in at the plate, Diaz is hitting .380 over the last 15 days with a pair of home runs and a 37% extra-base-hit rate. Hitting in that cleanup spot, Diaz is always live for an RBI (+165), too.
While Urena has improved mightily from last season, he still has a really low strikeout rate and ranks in the 28th percentile in hard-hit%. He did fall down to Earth against Boston (4 IP, 7R) his last time out and he has allowed a home run in three of his last four games.
And we can’t end without talking about Gunnar Henderson!
Henderson has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching this season and is starting to find his groove at the plate once again. He was robbed of extra bases last night against Toronto and comes off a phenomenal series against Cleveland (8-for-17, 1 HR).
It’s only a matter of time before the power follows suit with Henderson — and Bowden Francis is a perfect target. The right-hander ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in barrels (11.1%) and does not generate many swings and misses (18.8%, 7th percentile). He also is a heavy fly-ball pitcher, all culminating in a potential disaster against an Orioles lineup that packs plenty of punch.
The last time out against Baltimore, Francis threw 5 2/3 innings of three-run ball. He also allowed a pair of home runs in the process to Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg.
Henderson is my favorite player on today’s slate to do some damage and is +500 to hit a home run over at FanDuel. Consider his total bases prop as well (-125, over 1.5), though it is a bit juiced.
