On Friday, we had a 3-0 night to cap a 6-2 week. One of the plays we cashed was on Eury Perez's strikeouts in his MLB debut. Tonight, I'm fading his Marlins teammates with Josiah Gray getting the ball for the Nationals.
The Cardinals got off to a 10-24 start to begin this season. Since then, they have won seven of their last eight games, including taking game one against the Brewers last night. Nolan Arenado has been a big reason why, and he could be in for another massive night as he faces left-hander Wade Miley.
In Chicago, it'll be an AL Central battle when the Guardians visit the White Sox. Shane Bieber will get the ball for the Guardians. He may get some run support from Jose Ramirez, who has a strong track record against Lance Lynn.
Let's dive into Tuesday's slate and continue to build on last week's momentum.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, May 16
Josiah Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-112)
| Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
In his last start, Gray had a great matchup against the Giants. He worked seven innings, but struck out just three. However, he did turn in a strong outing, allowing two runs on five hits to pick up his third win of the season.
Before I get into why I'm backing Gray here, alternatively, you could take him to go over 17.5 outs recorded at -135 on DraftKings. However, considering his hit rate is the same (4-of-8 starts), I prefer the better odds with his strikeouts.
In his young career, Gray has proven to be a strikeout pitcher. He has 270 strikeouts in 265 innings and a 9.2 K/9 career average.
Despite recording just three against San Francisco, Gray has hit this line in three of his last four starts. He had at least six in each of those three starts, including nine against the Mets.
Tonight, Gray will face a Marlins lineup that strikes out in 23.8% of their at-bats against right-handed pitchers, which ranks 10th in MLB. The Marlins have struck out five times against six of the last 10 starting pitchers they've faced.
Last season, Gray went over this line in four of six starts against the Marlins. He had at least six in every start that he went over, including one with 10.
We'll only need five for him to hit this line tonight.
Pick: Josiah Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Nolan Arenado to Record 2 Total Bases (+100)
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals | |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Arenado is a career .288 hitter, but he hit just .231 over the first month of the season. However, as his team has heated up, so has he.
Over his past seven games, he has four home runs, 13 runs batted in and an MLB-leading 1.444 OPS. He's hit a home run in each of his last four games.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see him go deep again tonight.
Arenado has always done damage against left-handers. This season, he has three home runs and a .976 OPS in 32 at-bats against them.
Tonight, he gets Miley, who he's 9-for-25 with a double against in his career. Miley had a 2.31 ERA through his first six starts, but last time out, he allowed seven runs in five innings against the Dodgers.
Arenado hasn't homered off Miley in his career, but he's +440 on FanDuel if you want to take him for Dinger Tuesday.
Arenado will enter tonight's game on a six-game hitting streak, and three of those were multi-hit games. Another multi-hit game will give him two bases, whether he homers or not. He's gone over this line in seven of his last 10 games.
At even money, I like his chances of cashing this line again tonight.
Pick: Nolan Arenado to Record 2 Total Bases
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-135)
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
When Ramirez steps into the batter's box, it's not a pleasant experience for most pitchers, particularly right-handers. The switch-hitting Ramirez is hitting .285 with four home runs and 22 runs batted in.
Against right-handers, his batting average goes up to .344, and he also has a .926 OPS.
One right-hander, in particular, that Ramirez has had a lot of success against is Lynn. Ramirez is 11-for-32 (.344) with two doubles, four home runs and eight runs batted in against Lynn in his career.
Ramirez also may be catching Lynn at a great time. This season, Lynn has a 7.51 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He's allowed at least three runs in every start this season, including seven against Kansas City last time out.
Lynn has allowed eight home runs, 21 runs batted in, a .350 batting average and a 1.109 OPS to left-handed hitters.
That's good news for Ramirez, who I expect to be on base. He's recorded at least one hit in 14 out of his last 17 games, and he's scored a run in 10 of those games.
He's hit this line in seven of his last 10 games. For the season, he's averaging 2.2 hits + runs + runs batted in per game.
Ramirez may take Lynn deep for the fifth time in his career. Either way, he should go over this line.
