We have a stacked 15-game Major League Baseball slate on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks. A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Steven Kwan Fantasy Score More Than 7
The Cleveland Guardians begin a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers today at Progressive Field. Right-hander Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for Detroit, and he is a valuable fade candidate in this contest.
Through four starts, Lorenzen is 1-1 with a troubling 5.14 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 42nd percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Steven Kwan is the first Guardians hitter to back against him. Entering this matchup in good form, Kwan has surpassed a fantasy score of seven in each of his past three games.
While Kwan certainly is not known for his power, he has no issues getting on base. Currently, he ranks in the 81st percentile or higher in xBA.
Once on base, he is a dangerous threat on the base paths, recording eight stolen bases through 34 games. There are numerous avenues for Kwan to eclipse this number, especially in a lefty-versus-righty matchup.
Since joining the league, Kwan's splits jump by approximately 19% when facing right-handed pitching to an impressive .295 BA, .407 SLG and .789 OPS.
Jose Ramirez Fantasy Score More Than 8.5
In a play with some solid correlation, we are going to back the batter who hits two spots behind Kwan in the Guardians' lineup. Off to yet another strong start in 2023, Jose Ramirez has posted a .282 BA, .435 SLG and .799 OPS while adding five stolen bases.
His underlying metrics suggest that further positive regression could be likely. This season, Ramirez boasts a .298 xBA, .463 xSLG and .354 xwOBA.
When facing right-handed pitching since 2021, Ramirez has generated a dominating .283 BA, .544 SLG and .913 OPS. Through eight career plate appearances against Lorenzen, he boasts a .333 BA, 1.000 SLG and .578 wOBA with one homer.
Bobby Witt Jr. Fantasy Score Less Than 8.5
The Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox in the second game of another AL Central series on Tuesday. Right-hander Lucas Giolito is slated to take the mound for Chicago and should be a strong candidate to back in this contest.
Through seven starts this season, Giolito possesses a 3.67 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that even better outings are looming.
This season, Giolito ranks in the 66th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA and HardHit%. He should have success against Bobby Witt Jr., the first Royals hitter to fade in this contest.
While Witt Jr. has surpassed this number in four of his past five games, now is the time to sell high on the infielder. When facing right-handed pitching this season, his splits take a roughly 14% dip to a .236 BA and .694 OPS.
Salvador Perez Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
Salvador Perez is another Kansas City hitter worth fading in this contest. Like Witt Jr., now is the time to sell high on Perez after eclipsing this figure in four of his past five outings.
Perez has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching over the past couple of seasons. Since 2021, Perez's splits have taken a roughly 18% dip when facing right-handers, falling to a .259 BA, .488 SLG and .784 OPS.
Those are still some solid splits, and there is no doubt that Perez is a threat at the dish. However, against Giolito, a pitcher who should further positively regress, a 6.5 fantasy score is too high.
