We have a stacked 14-game Major League Baseball slate on Friday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks. A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Friday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Anthony Volpe Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 5
The second installment of this four-game series is set to get underway on Friday evening with the Texas Rangers hosting the New York Yankees. Right-hander Jacob deGrom, an excellent candidate to back, is slated to take the mound for Texas.
Off to yet another tremendous start, the future Hall-of-Famer is 2-0 with a 3.04 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP through five starts. deGrom's underlying metrics suggest regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 92nd percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, K%, BB%, and Whiff%.
The first New York hitter we are fading in this contest is rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe, who has had a bit of a slow start to his inaugural campaign. Through 25 games, he possesses an underwhelming .228 BA, a .354 SLG and a .712 OPS.
Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression probably isn't coming anytime soon. Volpe ranks in the 34th percentile or lower in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, K% and Whiff%.
Having never faced deGrom, Volpe is likely in for a very difficult night at the dish.
Anthony Rizzo Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 5
The other Yankees hitter we are fading is Anthony Rizzo. He has failed to reach this number in three of his past four games and going up against deGrom isn't likely the spot to turn that trend around.
Despite batting from the left-side of the plate, Rizzo's splits have taken a roughly 15% dip when facing right-handed pitchers since 2021. Additionally, playing on the road has also not been kind to Rizzo.
Since 2021, his splits have taken an approximate 14% dip when playing away from Yankee Stadium, which is seemingly built for him with the short porch in right field.
Bobby Witt Jr. Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 7
The Minnesota Twins host the lowly Kansas City Royals in the second installment of this four-game AL Central series. Pablo Lopez is slated to take the mound for Minnesota and should be a tremendous candidate to back in this contest.
Through five starts this season, Lopez boasts a 3.00 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest even stronger outings are looming.
This season, Lopez ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, K% and Whiff%. The first Royals hitter to fade in this contest is Bobby Witt Jr.
Through three career plate appearances against Lopez, Witt is 0-2 with a strikeout and a walk. It is not surprising that these plate appearances didn't go very well for Witt Jr. considering he is below-average at barreling baseballs and Lopez ranks in the 65th percentile in limiting them.
While it is a small sample size, nothing across those three plate appearances suggests positive regression is looming for Witt, who has produced a .038 xBA, .153 xSLG and a .287 xwOBA.
Salvador Perez Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
The other Kansas City hitter we are fading in this contest is Salvador Perez. It has been an extremely disappointing start to the season for Perez, who possesses a mere .244 BA, .389 SLG and a .681 OPS through 23 games.
This poor start is likely to continue against Lopez, a guy whom Perez is just 1-for-3 with a single against in his career. Similar to Witt, Perez's underlying metrics over that small sample size aren't promising as he's posted a .293 xBA, a .320 xSLG and a .264 xwOBA.
Perhaps the biggest reason to fade Perez in this contest is his track record against right-handed pitchers. Since 2021, his splits have taken roughly a 20% dip when facing right-handers, falling to a .254 BA, .476 SLG and .768 OPS.
Will Perez record a hit in this game? Probably. But he will need to do much more than that to surpass this number.
