Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, August 20.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Astros vs. Tigers, White Sox vs. Braves, and Yankees vs. Rays. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, August 20
Astros vs. Tigers
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8 -115o / -105u | +105 |
LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. RHP Charlie Morton (DET)
There’s rain projected in Comerica’s forecast, but we also expect high humidity (85% or higher) with strong double-digit breezes out toward right field. Taking the weather into account, I project this total at 8.7, compared to 7.3 on a weather-neutral day in Detroit.
Tigers starting pitcher Charlie Morton has a home-run problem (1.38 HR/9 allowed), especially toward right field — that won’t play well on Wednesday.
While Astros starter Framber Valdez is a ground-ball pitcher that never surrenders the long-ball (.53 HR/9 allowed), these are two very shaky bullpens that grade out as bottom-10 units since the trade deadline.
Pick: Over 8 (-114 | Bet to 8.5 +100)
White Sox vs. Braves
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 9 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9 -110o / -110u | -190 |
LHP Martin Perez (CWS) vs. RHP Hurston Waldrep (ATL)
I’m buying property on Hurston Waldrep Island in Atlanta.
The No. 24 overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Florida, Waldrep’s best MLB comp is Logan Gilbert. The rookie has a vast six-pitch arsenal with a double-plus splitter (142 Stuff+) and a plus slider (106 Stuff+). He had some command issues in the minors, but he seems to have fixed that this year (104 Location+).
White Sox starter Martin Perez is essentially a replacement-level arm (6.47 xERA, 4.80 xFIP, 76 Pitching+, 5.95 botERA). Meanwhile, Atlanta’s offense is more potent against left-handed pitching (112 wRC+ over the past month) than against right-handed pitching (106 wRC+ over the past month).
The Braves are also the much-better defensive team, ranking third among MLB teams in DRS and ninth in OAA.
I project the Braves ML at -218.
Pick: Braves ML (-180 | Play to -200)
Yankees vs. Rays
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (TBR)
Steinbrenner Field’s park factors are extremely volatile based on wind speed and direction, and we expect stellar hitting conditions on Wednesday (90-degree temps, wind blowing out toward the short porch in right field).
The Yankees' offense is heating up again, posting a 143 wRC+ over the past week (not including their nine-homer, double-digit-run performance on Tuesday. Superstar Aaron Judge is heating up again, homering in three of the past six games.
For what it’s worth, New York ranks second among MLB lineups in pulled fly-ball rate (21.7%).
Rays starter Drew Rasmussen has seen a dip in his earned run indicators (3.45 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 111 Pitching+, 3.04 botERA). Meanwhile, Yankees starter Cam Schlitter has excellent stuff (115 Stuff+) but lousy command (95 Location+, 10.8% walk rate), which will get him into trouble.
We also have a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate in Chair Fairchild, and I project 9.37 runs for this game.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105 | Bet to 9 -105)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, August 20
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Braves ML (-180 | Play to -200)
- Cubs ML (+105 | Play to -102)
- Mariners vs. Phillies Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to 9 +100)
- Astros vs. Tigers Over 8 (-114 | Play to 8.5 +100)
- Cardinals vs. Marlins Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to -118)
- Mets vs. Nationals Over 8.5 (-120 | Play to 9 -115)
- Yankees vs. Rays Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to 9 -105)
- Athletics vs. Twins Over 9 (-109 | Play to -115)
- Reds vs. Angels Under 9 (-115 | Play to 8.5 -105)
- Giants vs. Padres Under 8 (-105 | Play to -110)
