Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, June 5.
MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (June 5)
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 9.5 -102o / -120u | -152 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 9.5 -102o / -120u | +128 |
Luis Severino (NYM) vs. Patrick Corbin (WAS)
If the Nationals (27-33) were closer to .500, they'd think about cutting Patrick Corbin, who is in the final year of a six-year, $140 million deal. The Diamondbacks did something similar with Madison Bumgarner last April (when they were 11-9), ultimately securing an NL Wild Card spot and winning the NL Pennant.
Corbin (5.83 ERA, 6.15 xERA, 5% K-BB%) has been a sub-replacement-level pitcher for the past four seasons (26-56, 5.76 ERA, 6.04 xERA, 9.6% K-BB%). He has 15 more losses than any other pitcher over that span.
If you bet against Corbin as an underdog on the F5 or first five innings moneyline in every game over that span, you'd have a 67.1% win rate (55-27-6) and a 3.8% ROI.
Corbin's fastball velocity (91.5 mph) is at its lowest point over the past four years — down an entire tick compared to the 2021 and 2022 seasons — and his strikeout rate has fallen to a career-low 13.8%, the lowest among 71 qualified starters.
If you lower the filter to 40 innings, Corbin ranks 124th among 126 starters in strikeout rate, ahead of only Michael Soroka and Dakota Hudson.
Luis Severino (3.52 ERA, 3.46 xERA) is pitching far better this season than last, even though his strikeout rate (20%) hasn't bounced back (18.9% in 2023 vs. 25% career) and his walk rate (10%) is at the second-worst mark of his career.
He's trading strikeouts for ground balls. Severino is throwing a sinker 21% of the time this season, and his ground-ball rate has spiked to a career-high 51.1%.
I'm not sure if Severino can sustain a mid-threes ERA with a subpar 10% K-BB%, but he's still a significantly better pitcher than Corbin — at least a run and a half better on an ERA projection.
I like the Mets in the first half and the Over; I set this total closer to 10 with temperatures at 80 degrees and winds blowing out to left field.
Bets: Mets F5-Game Moneyline (-175 or better) | Over 9 (9.5, -105 or better)
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -104 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -112 |
James Paxton (LAD) vs. Paul Skenes (PIT)
James Paxton has been discussed in this space as much as anyone this season. To summarize prior thoughts:
Paxton's indicators (5,21 xERA, 5.40 xFIP, 5.70 SIERA) and pitch modeling metrics (73 Stuff+; 65 in his last outing, where he left after three innings) are at career-worst levels. He's been extremely fortunate with a .243 BABIP (.300 career) and an 84.7% strand rate (78.8% carer). Paxton's velocity and strikeout rate have continued to slip since his return last May — his fastball velocity is down 1.8 mph, year over year.
I'm unsure if it is sustainable, but Pittsburgh's offense has been above average against lefties (102 wRC+, 14th) this season, but ranks 28th against right-handed pitching (81 wRC+).
Regardless, they have a significant starting pitching advantage.
Paul Skenes (2.45 ERA, 2.82 xERA, 29.8% K-BB%, 113 Stuff+, 107 Location+) has been incredibly impressive through four outings. He owns the highest Pitching+ figure (112) of all starters in baseball this season.
The BAT puts his rest-of-season FIP projection at 3.24 — Steamer is even more aggressive, at 2.74. For context, that's only behind Mason Miller (2.17), Jacob deGrom (2.44) and Andres Munoz (2.70), and ahead of Jhoan Duran (2.85) and Tarik Skubal (2.85).
In the year of the rookie pitcher, Skenes has aggressively closed in on Shota Imanaga in NL Rookie of the Year odds.
Bets: Pirates F5 Moneyline (-135 or better) | Pirates Full-Game Moneyline (-118 or better)
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +116 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -136 |
Albert Suarez (BAL) vs. Jose Berrios (TOR)
Albert Suarez (1.57 ERA, 2.99 xERA, 14% K-BB%) has been highly effective for the Orioles across 12 appearances (five starts). He owns solid command (104 Location+), but just an 88 Stuff+ figure — his changeup (99) comes closest to rating as an average pitch.
The 34-year-old righty has moved around between the NPB, KBO and Venezuelan Winter League after pitching for the Giants from 2016-2017. His solid command provides a decent floor.
I've never been high on Jose Berrios (4.12 xERA, 13.7% K-BB%, 92 Stuff+, 103 Location+), who has an above-average curveball but doesn't otherwise separate from Suarez on a blind resume.
I projected this game closer to a coin flip in both halves.
Bets: Orioles F5 Moneyline (+109 or better) | Orioles Full-Game Moneyline (+112 or better)
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -154 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +130 |
Dylan Cease (SD) vs. Jose Soriano (LAA)
Dylan Cease owns career-best walk rate and strikeout minus walk rate (23.4% vs. 18.2% career average). His fastball is up 1.1 mph relative to last season, and in line with his career average. He's throwing his arsenal harder than ever before, including a career-high rate of sliders (47.3% vs. 36.1% career).
Cease owns a 121 Stuff+ figure and a 107 Pitching+ rating, ranking third and seventh, respectively, among 71 qualified starters. If you lower the innings filter to 40, Cease ranks fifth and eighth in the same pitch modeling ratings among 133 starting pitchers.
Cease has allowed 15 runs in his past four starts, but he's permitted a .377 BABIP in those outings. On the season (.251 BABIP), he's been a bit fortunate (.293 career), but his strand rate (64.9%) is nine points below his career average (73.9%).
Jose Soriano has impressive Stuff (104 Stuff+), including four potential above-average offerings, but he struggles with command (95 Location+, 10.2% walk rate). Severino is close to a league-average pitcher — his xERA has hovered around four over the past two seasons between the Angels' rotation and bullpen.
Still, I view Soriano as a tier or two below Cease, who I rank as a clear top-10 starting pitcher among healthy arms.
In my opinion, the total has moved down too far (from 8.5 to 7.5); my projected line is 7.94 runs.
Bets: Padres F5 Moneyline (-121 or better) | Over 7.5 (-107 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, June 5
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- Baltimore Orioles F5 (+116, 0.5u) at FanDuel (small to +109)
- Baltimore Orioles (+123, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +112)
- Cleveland Guardians (-122, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -125)
- Cleveland Guardians / Kansas City Royals, Over 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to 9, -108)
- Chicago White Sox / Chicago Cubs, Under 8.5 (+105, 0.5u) at ESPNBet and Under 9.5 (-115, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to 8.5, -101)
- Milwaukee Brewers / Philadelphia Phillies, Over 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -120 or 9, -102)
- New York Mets F5 (-145, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -175)
- New York Mets / Washington Nationals, Over 9 (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9.5, -105)
- Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (-115, 0.5u) at Bet365 (bet to -135)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (-112, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -118)
- San Francisco Giants F5 (-105, 0.5u) at Bet365 (bet to -110)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-135, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -145)
- San Diego Padres / Los Angeles Angels, Over 7.5 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -107)
