Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, June 19.
MLB Predictions, Odds Wednesday | Picks & Previews Today (June 19)
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +132 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -156 |
Matt Waldron (SDP) vs. Ranger Suarez (PHI)
I don't have sufficient predictive data on the impact of shadows at certain parks compared to others, but here's some food for thought:
Since 2005, the Under at Citizens Bank Park has been profitable (+0.8% ROI) during day games (4:30 p.m. ET first pitch or earlier), hitting at a 51.9% clip (237-219-23) compared to a 49.1% record and -4.2% ROI in night games (430-446-49; data via Action Labs).
Over the past 10 seasons, the best stadiums for day game unders are Guaranteed Rate Field (+13% ROI), Marlins Park (+10.5% ROI), T-Mobile Park (+7.6%), Citizens Bank Park (+6% ROI) and Wrigley Field (5.9%).
Ranger Suarez (2.80 xERA) has returned to form after taking a line drive off the hand against the Cardinals. His K-BB% is up 8%, year over year, and his Location+ rating (104) sits at a career-best mark. Suarez has struggled with injuries throughout his career but is peaking in a healthy 2024 campaign.
Projections (projected FIP range of 4.09 to 4.64) and pitching models don't know how to assess Matt Waldron (3.40 xERA, 14.8% K-BB%). Aside from his knuckleball (38.1% usage rate), Waldron has an effective slider (112 Stuff+) and solid command (102 Location+). His effectiveness will be better measured by batted-ball metrics, like his 3.40 xERA, since he generates a lot of weak contact (85th percentile in average exit velocity).
The Gameday 3D tracking for this Waldron knuckleball 😂 https://t.co/g5wlTzgYaqpic.twitter.com/M93UJOEu3a
— David Adler (@_dadler) June 4, 2024
I projected this total at 7.98 runs.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-110 or better)
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 9.5 -102o / -120u | -162 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 9.5 -102o / -120u | +136 |
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. Patrick Corbin (WAS)
I was surprised to find a first five innings (F5) line on the Diamondbacks at a shorter price than their full-game moneyline. Arizona has a far more significant pitching advantage in the first half, with Brandon Pfaadt (3.14 xERA, 18.8% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+) facing Patrick Corbin (6.85 xERA, 5.6% K-BB%, 78 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+).
Pfaadt still hasn't overcome his struggles against left-handed hitters (3.18 xFIP vs. righties, 4.02 vs. lefties) — his K-BB% is nearly double against same-sided hitters (25.3%) as against lefties (12.4%).
Still, to continue citing a couple of stats from this column in recent weeks, Corbin has 57 losses over the past four seasons — 16 more than any other pitcher. And If you bet against him as an underdog on the F5 moneyline in every game over that span, you'd have a 67.5% win rate (56-27-7) and a 4.3% ROI.
Corbin's fastball velocity (91.5 mph) is at its lowest point over the past four years — down an entire tick compared to the 2021 and 2022 seasons — and his strikeout rate has fallen to a career-low 14%, the second-lowest lowest among 75 qualified starters. His expected ERA (xERA) has been north of six in the past three seasons (6.85, 6.16, 6.41).
Corbin is a sub-replacement-level arm in likely the final year of his professional career.
I project a substantial differential — equal to nearly 6% in implied probability between the Diamondbacks' F5 and full-game moneyline pricing — and only see value in the first half. I'd anticipate substantial CLV relative to my wager. Hopefully, Arizona cashes the ticket.
Bets: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (-180 or better)
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +144 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -172 |
Cade Povich (BAL) vs. Gerrit Cole (NYY)
2023 AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole (3.48 xERA) will make his season debut on Wednesday after missing nearly half the year with an elbow injury. Cole was electric across 12 1/3 rehab innings in the high minors (19 K, 1 BB) and he should be able to throw 80-85 pitches against the Orioles.
Although he did finally win some hardware last season, Cole was a bit fortunate under the hood (.261 BABIP vs. .293 career; 80.4% strand rate vs. 76.8% career; 9.4% HR/FB rate vs. 12.2% career), with a 2.63 ERA compared to an expected mark of 3.48.
Cole's strikeout rate was down more than 5% compared to the 2022 season and 12% compared to his career year in 2019 with the Astros (2.43 xERA).
Cole's Stuff+ rating also dipped from 139 in 2022 to 121 last season. He's still an excellent pitcher, but projections (projected FIP range of 3.55 to 3.74) view Cole as a half-tier below the most elite arms in baseball.
Cade Povich (projected FIP range of 4.17 to 4.30; 85 Stuff+, 99 Location+) posted a high strikeout rate (31.6%) over four seasons in the Minors and was extremely sharp in his second-career start against the Braves.
I bet the under in that start, where Povich faced former Nebraska teammate Spencer Schwellenbach.
And I'll back Povich to tame another difficult opponent — I set Wednesday's total at 7.8 runs.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-117 or better)
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -112o / -108u | +114 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8 -112o / -108u | -134 |
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs. Kevin Gasuman (TOR)
Kevin Gausman's splitter hasn't been sharp this season (.242 xBA, .373 xSLG vs. .176 and .272 in 2023), and his fastball is getting pounded (.326 xBA and .614 xSLG vs. .271 and .383 in 2023). Getting ahead of hitters but not finishing them off, Gausman has permitted a .334 wOBA in 0-2 counts this season compared to a career average of .208.
His velocity, pitch modeling metrics (95 Stuff+ vs. 105 in 2023) and strikeout rate (23.8% vs. 21.1% in 2023) have all dipped, but Gausman retains excellent command.
I still view Gausman as a superior pitcher to Brayan Bello (4.26 xERA, 11.6% K-BB%), who has superior stuff (104 Stuff+) but lesser command. Bello has gotten pounded over the past month (6.89 ERA, 9.5% K-BB%). His command is shaky, and he gets squared up too consistently.
The Blue Jays are the superior defensive club, leading MLB with 50 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and ranking second with 24 Outs Above Average (OAA). The Red Sox rank 12th (+18) and 24th (-8), respectively, in those two defensive measurements.
Bets: Blue Jays F5 Moneyline (-135 or better) | Blue Jays Full-Game Moneyline (-130 or better)
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +136 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -162 |
Taj Bradley (TB) vs. Joe Ryan (MIN)
Taj Bradley has flashed elite stuff during his time in the Majors (111 Stuff+; 112 in 2024). Models love his fastball (122 Stuff+) and splitter (120) and rate his curveball around a league-average offering.
Bradley tied a career high with 11 strikeouts in his last start against the Cubs after holding the Orioles to one run over five innings. A 31.6% strikeout rate through seven starts is elite, ranking sixth among 155 starters who have thrown 30 innings or more this season.
I expect Bradley to pitch toward the more optimistic end of his projected FIP range (3.80 to 4.22) over the remainder of his 2024 campaign.
Joe Ryan (3.07 xERA) has developed into an upper-echelon starter. He gets away with a below-average fastball in terms of shape and velocity (49th percentile) by commanding the pitch well up in the zone (.189 xBA), which sets up his slider (122 Stuff+) and splitter (103 Stuff+) as putaway pitches.
I projected this total at 7.16 runs.
Bets: Under 8 (-122 or 7.5, -104 or better)
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -138 | 11 -104o / -118u | -210 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +115 | 11 -104o / -118u | +176 |
Bobby Miller (LAD) vs. Ryan Feltner (COL)
Bobby Miller will return to the Dodgers rotation on Wednesday after battling shoulder inflammation in April.
His rehab stint was shaky (15 IP, 19 H, 14 R, 8 BB, 10 K), but Miller tossed 93 pitches in his last outing and should return to a full workload. The Rockies are an easier matchup for righties (81 wRC+, 29th) than lefties (89 wRC+, 23rd), especially at home (78 wRC+ vs. righties, 92 wRC+ vs. lefties).
I'll continue to bang the drum for Ryan Feltner (5.71 ERA, 3.98 xERA, 99 Stuff+, 102 Location+) to get out of Coors Field.
Feltner has three above-average pitches (118 changeup, 106 slider, 105 curveball) but has carried a high BABIP (.338) and a low strand rate (58.8%). Granted, his career averages (.319 and 62.5%, respectively) while pitching in Colorado are far worse than the MLB averages (.287 and 71.7%, respectively) — which most pitchers regress toward — in those categories. Still, I think he's developed into a pitcher with a mid-rotation upside.
The wind is blowing in on Wednesday (8 mph from left center) in Denver, and I set this total closer to 10 runs.
Bets: Under 11 (10.5, -108 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, June 19
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App.
- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-145, Risk 1u) at BetMGM (bet to -180; reduce risk past -165)
- Baltimore Orioles / New York Yankees, Under 8,5 (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -117)
- Houston Astros / Chicago White Sox, Over 7 (-115, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -121 or 7.5, -102)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Colorado Rockies, Under 11 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 10.5, -108)
- Miami Marlins (+145, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (small to +125)
- San Diego Padres / Philadelphia Phillies, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- San Francisco Giants / Chicago Cubs, Under 11.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 11, -102)
- Toronto Blue Jays F5 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -135)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-120, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -130)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Minnesota Twins, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -122 or 7.5, -104)
