Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, July 31.
MLB Predictions Wednesday | Picks, Odds, & Previews (7/31)
Nestor Cortes Jr. (NYY) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)
The Yankees were reportedly shopping Nestor Cortes at the trade deadline.
The southpaw has struggled over the past two months (5.23 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, 16.4% K-BB%), and his pitch modeling metrics are at a three-year low: 94 Pitching+ over the past thirty days – down 10 points compared to the past two seasons. Moreover, Cortes posted a 3.50 botERA through May, which has risen to 4.33 between June and July.
Cristopher Sanchez (3.57 xERA, 3.24 xFIP, 104 Pitching+) is the superior starting pitcher, and with a 58.6% groundball rate, should be less impacted by the conditions: 85 degrees at first pitch, with 8-10 mph winds blowing out to right field.
I set Wednesday's total at 9.78 runs; both clubs had to dig deep into their bullpens in Tuesday's 7-6 thriller, with each team deploying six relievers.
Moreover, I give the Phillies the better offensive splits. With both teams facing a left-handed starter, I projected the Phillies lineup for a 120 wRC+, compared to 110 for the Yankees. During the season, the Phillies rank fourth against left-handed pitching (120 wRC+), while the Yankees rank 13th (106 wRC+).
Bets: Phillies F5 Moneyline (-135 or better) | Over 9 (-120 or 9.5, +100 or better)
George Kirby (SEA) vs. Brayan Bello (BOS)
The Red Sox used Cooper Criswell and James Paxton to record 22 of 27 outs on Wednesday, while the Mariners deployed both Andres Munoz and Colin Snider for the third time in four days and used Tyler Saucedo on a back-to-back.
As a result, I give Boston a slight bullpen advantage in Wednesday's matchup and show a smaller projection gap between Brayan Bello (4.68 xERA, 13.6% K-BB%, 103 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+) and George Kirby (3.20 xERA, 22.1% K-BB%, 108 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+) than you might expect.
Kirby is one of the best pitchers in baseball by virtually every measurement. Conversely, Bello has posted strong pitch modeling metrics alongside underwhelming results.
However, projection systems (projected rest-of-season FIP range of 3.86 to 4.15 – are much higher on Bello than his year-to-date numbers – aligning closer with his xERA from 2022 (3.80) and 2023 (4.16). Moreover, his pitch modeling metrics have only improved in 2024 compared to prior years (99 Pitching+ in 2022, 98 in 2023).
In addition to the bullpen edge, Boston has the superior position player group, projecting for a 113 wRC+ against a right-handed starter, compared to a 106 wRC+ for Seattle. During the season, the Red Sox rank 6th (111 wRC+) against righties, while the Mariners rank 19th (95 wRC+).
Overnight, I like Boston and the Under – I projected the total at 8.96 runs.
Bets: Red Sox Full-Game Moneyline (-103 or better) | Under 9.5 (-110 or better)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) vs. Dylan Cease (SDP)
I wasn't overly impressed by Clayton Kershaw's 2024 debut. The future Hall-of-Famer posted a 102 Stuff+ figure (101 in 2023) while averaging 90.6 mph on his fastball (the same velocity level since 2021) and 86.6 mph on his slider (the same velocity level since 2022). However, his command was spotty (93 Location+, two walks, and four three-ball counts).
As we advance, I'd expect Kershaw to pitch in line with his results from last season (3.77 xERA, 4.03 xFIP, 18.5% K-BB%), although I don't foresee a repeat of his 2.46 ERA (.250 BABIP, 89.3% strand rate vs. .269 and 79.5% career). Projection systems put Kershaw between a 3.76 and 3.89 rest-of-season FIP.
The Padres used six relievers on Tuesday while erasing a five-run deficit. On Wednesday, they'll add bullpen reinforcements in Jason Adam (3.42 xERA, 129 Stuff+) and Tanner Scott (2.92 xERA, 145 Stuff+), giving San Diego one of the best relief units in baseball.
During the season, Padres' relievers rank 7th in xFIP, 8th in K-BB%, and 1st by Stuff+ and Pitching+.
After their deadline additions, the Padres have the best bullpen in my model (3.26 model weighted ERA), ahead of the Phillies (3.28) and Dodgers (3.41) if all three bullpens were fully rested.
Dylan Cease (3.16 xERA, 24.8% K-BB%, 124 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+) is coming off the second no-hitter in Padres history. His fastball velocity (97 mph) is at a four-year high, and Cease has thrown his slider (46.1%) more often than ever before (36.7% career average).
At 3.3 WAR—and projected to finish between 4.4 and 4.9—Cease has a real chance at the NL Cy Young if Chris Sale (3.9 WAR; projected 4.9-5.6) and Paul Skenes (2.3 WAR; projected 3.0-4.2) slip over the final two months (Zack Wheeler dipped after allowing seven runs on Tuesday). You can do worse than a longshot NL Cy Young poke on Cease (+3500 at FanDuel).
Before Tuesday's win – and deadline acquisitions – PECOTA had the Padres at 74.6% (-294 implied odds) to make the playoffs, 4.6% to win the NL West (+2073), and 3.4% (+2841) to win the World Series. I'd expect those percentages to increase after updating on Wednesday morning.
FanGraphs' updated projection put their chances at 64.5% to make the playoffs (-181 implied), 9.5% to win the division (+952), and 4.1% to win the World Series (+2339), respectively.
There's value in betting the Padres to make the playoffs (-165, or 62.3% implied at DraftKings), win the NL West (+1200, or 7.7% implied at FanDuel), win the NL Pennant (+1600, or 5.9% implied at Caesars), and win the World Series (+3500, or 2.8% implied at FanDuel).
At the best available prices, the Make Playoffs prop and NL Pennant odds offer the most value – each with a projected edge of around 2.2%.
In contrast, the divisional bet (1.8%) and World Series Odds (1.3%) fall below my typical threshold at consensus odds. However, there are some outlier divisional numbers north of +2000 and a World Series number at +3500, both of which I would poke.
San Diego has one of the softest remaining schedules (third easiest per Tankathon), and a couple of former All-Stars (Joe Musgrove and Fernanto Tatis Jr.) are due back within the next month.
Now is the time to buy on San Diego from a futures standpoint.
After the Dodgers game Wednesday – where they are favored to complete a two-game series sweep, the Padres' next five series and 15 games are against the Rockies, Pirates, and Marlins – and they'll be favored in most of those contests.
I added the following futures overnight:
- Padres win NL Pennant (+1600, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to +1400)
- Padres win NL West (+2500, 0.1u) at BallyBet (bet to +1200)
- Padres win World Series (+3500, 0.1u) at BallyBet (bet to +3500)
I'll look for the best odds on the Padres making the postseason and on Cease winning the NL Cy Young.
Bets: Padres F5 Moneyline (-137 or better) | Padres Full-Game Moneyline (-123 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, July 31
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- Atlanta Braves F5 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -123)
- Boston Red Sox (+105, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -103)
- Chicago Cubs / Cincinnati Reds, Over 9 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -119 or 9.5, +100)
- Kansas City Royals / Chicago White Sox, Over 9 (+100, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -114)
- Minnesota Twins F5 (-107, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -110)
- New York Yankees / Philadelphia Phillies, Over 9 (-115, Risk 0.5u)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+190, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +176)
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-130, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -135)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -137)
- San Diego Padres (-116, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -123)
- Seattle Mariners / Boston Red Sox, Under 9.5 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -110)
- Texas Rangers / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 9 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -112)
