Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, August 7.
MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 7)
Michael King (SDP) vs. Marco Gonzales (PIT)
While I currently project the Padres' bullpen as the best in baseball, I believe their F5, or first five-inning moneyline, has been a bit short the past two days.
King (3.46 xERA, 19.3% K-BB%, 31.2% CSW% 100 Pitching+, 3.68 botERA) missed his last start with calf soreness, but he's undoubtedly a superior starter to Marco Gonzales, who has a mismatched 3.72 ERA and 6.14 xERA through six starts.
Gonzales has been a replacement-level arm for the past three or four seasons. Since 2022, 145 starting pitchers have tossed 200 cumulative innings; Gonzales ranks 144th in K-BB% (7.1%) and 137th in xFIP (4.85).
Rest-of-season FIP projections (projected range of 3.59 to 3.86 for King and 4.62 to 4.84 for Gonzales) show about an entire run on an ERA in projected true talent differential between these two starting pitchers; I project the gap closer to 1.6 runs.
The Padres will also enjoy their more favorable split for the second consecutive day; San Diego has performed better against lefties (116 wRC+, 11th) than righties (108 wRC+, 15th) this season.
Conversely, the Pirates' lineup has struggled against righties all year (84 wRC+, 28th). Pittsburgh ranks 25th against righties (79 wRC+) since the All-Star break.
I project the Padres' lineup at a 112 wRC+ against a left-handed starter and have Pittsburgh at a 98 wRC+ against a right-handed pitcher.
Bets: Padres F5 Moneyline (-145 or better)
Blake Snell (SFG) vs. Jake Irvin (WSH)
Blake Snell has generated 26 strikeouts across his past two starts and looks like he's in the form we saw last June – when Snell ripped off double-digit strikeouts in five of six outings and surged up the NL Cy Young leaderboard.
Snell jumped right into major league action this season – without spring training or a minor league tuneup – after signing with the Giants late in March – and he struggled over his first six starts (9.51 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 14.3% K-BB%, 113 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 98 Pitching+) before a groin strain sent him to the IL in June.
After that IL stint, Snell rehabbed adequately in the minors and has looked like a different pitcher since – with significantly better command and pitch modeling metrics over his past five outings (0.55 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 27.4% K-BB%, 123 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 110 Pitching+).
When Snell is pitching like this, I'd take him over almost anyone else – including Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Chris Sale – my top three model projected starting pitchers.
Snell's 2.85 xERA and 2.80 botERA (past two starts) indicate his current level more than his 3.52 xFIP (3.62 career).
Skenes, Skubal, and Sale – in that order – are the only other starting pitchers I would typically project for a sub-three model ERA.
Bets: Giants F5 Moneyline (-165 or better) | Giants Full-Game Moneyline (-160 or better)
Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs. Bowden Francis (TOR)
I don't particularly like either starting pitcher in this matchup.
I view Trevor Rogers (5.12 xERA, 7.9% K-BB%, 84 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+) and Bowden Francis (5.43 xERA, 10.7% K-BB%, 101 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+) as No. 4 or No. 5 starters.
Moreover, the Blue Jays have one of the worst bullpens in baseball (28th in xFIP, 28th in K-BB%, 23rd in Pitching+), and I'd rank the Orioles bullpen as a fringe top-ten unit.
Baltimore is an average to slightly below-average defensive team (16th in Defensive Runs Saves or DRS, 18th in Outs Above Average or OAA). Toronto has elite defensive metrics on the season (3rd in DRS, 6th in OAA), but Kevin Kiermaier is no longer patrolling center field.
All of that said, I only projected 8.69 runs in this matchup, which also triggered an Action Labs system for Under Streaks:
Bets: Under 9.5 (-121 or 9, -102 or better)
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. Chris Sale (ATL)
Freddy Peralta has shown a concerning dip in pitch modeling metrics over the past month or more, at 95 Stuff+, 95 Location+, and 95 Stuff+ since July 1, compared to marks of 107, 100, and 103 through June.
His base-level stats have also declined. Peralta posted a 3.83 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, and 22.4% K-BB% (30.9% K%, 8.5% BB%) through the first three months of the season, compared to a 4.10 ERA, 4.45 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 14.7% K-BB% (25% K%, 10.3% BB%) in five starts since.
And without an 81.1% strand rate over those five starts, Peralta's ERA might have ballooned higher.
His velocity dipped as low as 92.8 mph and 93.8 mph in those outings – but bounced back to 94.5 mph (94.4 on the season) in his last start against the Braves.
Peralta and the Brewers closed at roughly +100 at home in both halves of that matchup against Sale and the Braves, who closed around -125 F5 and -120 (54.% implied) for the full game.
After adjusting for home field, you would expect to find Atlanta at around -160 (61.5% implied) in either half.
I bet the Braves F5 line in the first matchup at -115 – and liked that bet to -123; I set my price target at -160 in the rematch a week later.
Sale (2.64 xERA, 26.4% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+) should win the NL Cy Young if he stays healthy.
Still, I projected 8.17 runs in hot weather (91 degrees at first pitch) with 7-8 mph winds blowing out to center field.
Bets: Braves F5 Moneyline (-160 or better) | Over 7.5 (-115 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Bets for Wednesday, August 7
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- Arizona Diamondbacks Game 1 F5 (-106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -123)
- Atlanta Braves F5 (-154, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -160)
- Baltimore Orioles / Toronto Blue Jays, Under 9.5 (-114, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -121 or 9, -102)
- Cincinnati Reds / Miami Marlins, Under 8.5 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -110)
- Detroit Tigers / Seattle Mariners, Over 6 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -110)
- Houston Astros F5 (-104, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -121)
- Milwaukee Brewers / Atlanta Braves, Over 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- New York Mets / Colorado Rockies, Over 11 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -110)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Los Angeles Dodgers, Under 9 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -115)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-125, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -145)
- San Diego Padres / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 8 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -112)
- San Francisco Giants F5 (-148, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -165)
- San Francisco Giants (-152, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -160)
