Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, August 14.
MLB Predictions Wednesday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 14)
Sean Zerillo's Rockies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Best Bet
Tanner Gordon (COL) vs. Jordan Montgomery (ARI)
The Diamondbacks and Padres are the two hottest teams in baseball—each 9-1 in their past ten games. However, both teams remain 3.5 games behind the Dodgers, who are 8-2 over that stretch and seemingly getting players back from the IL daily.
On Wednesday, Arizona will turn to a struggling Jordan Montgomery (6.37 ERA, 5.43 xERA, 6.1% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 4.78 botERA).
Montgomery's sinker velocity is down 1.5 mph compared to last season, and his Stuff+ rating and pitch modeling metrics show a three-year decline (100 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, and 3.52 botERA in 2022; 97, 96, and 4.39 in 2023).
Most notably, Montgomery's strikeout rate (14.6%) is down nearly a third compared to his career average (21.6%)—and it had never previously been below 21.4% in a full season. His strikeout minus walk rate or K-BB% (6.1%) is less than half his career average (14.8%).
Unless his velocity rebounds, it isn't easy to view Montgomery as anywhere near his prior levels (3.98 xERA, 4.01 xFIP in 2023).
Tanner Gordon (4.95 xERA, 17.9% K-BB%, 89 Stuff+, 108 Location+, 4.31 botERA) has shown solid command, and I give Colorado the starting pitching advantage in this matchup.
Bets: Rockies F5 Moneyline (+155 or better) | Rockies Full-Game Moneyline (+180 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Pirates vs. Padres Prediction & Pick
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs. Martin Perez (SDP)
I'm similarly low on Martin Perez (4.78 ERA, 5.50 xERA, 10% K-BB%, 72 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 95 Pitching+, 4.96 botERA) as I am on Jordan Montgomery.
However, Perez has pitched like a back-end starting pitcher in five of the past six seasons (4.80 xERA in 2020, 5.51 in 2021, 3.59 in 2022, 4.90 in 2023) – with a 4.44 xFIP and 10.5% K-BB% over that span – compared to league average marks of roughly 4.18 and 14.3% for starting pitchers over that span.
The Pirates' offense has been better against lefties (97 wRC+, 19th) than righties (84 wRC+, 28th) all year – and particularly over the past thirty days – ranking 6th against lefties (136 wRC+) compared to 25th against righties (81)
From a scouting perspective, their organization has much information on Perez – who pitched for the Pirates last season – and current Pirates' players have hammered the southpaw in a limited sample (22-for-66, 7 BB, 9 K).
Mitch Keller (3.95 xERA, 14.7% K-BB%, 100 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+) gives Pittsburgh a clear starting pitching edge in the first half or five five innings (F5).
Still, the Padres have a sizeable bullpen edge in the late innings of this matchup – and I'd need +120 or better to play Pittsburgh's full-game moneyline.
Bets: Pirates F5 Moneyline (+103 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Athletics vs. Mets Best Bet
Joey Estes (OAK) vs. David Peterson (NYM)
To reiterate some of my David Peterson analysis from last week, I'm concerned about his underlying metrics following offseason hip surgery (3.34 ERA, 5.43 xERA), including a 7.8% K-BB – less than half his career mark (15.9%)
However, Peterson's velocity is up (93.4 mph vs. 92.7 mph in 2023), and both his Stuff+ (94) and Pitching+ (95) ratings are at career highs.
Despite the two-run gap between his actual and expected ERA, I'd still expect Peterson to post better strikeouts and walk numbers—and improved underlying indicators—as he continues to recover. But that doesn't mean I view him as anything better than a No. 4 starter (career 4.32 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 3.91 xFIP) with significant downside in current form.
Joey Estes (4.35 xERA, 12.2% K-BB%, 94 Stuff+, 107 Loation+, 106 Pitching+, 3.59 botERA) should give Oakland the pitching edge.
Projections aren't high on Estes (projected FIP range of 4.58 to 5.08). Still, models like his cutter/slider (112 Stuff+, .285 xwOBA), sweeper (126 Stuff, .177 xwOBA), and command – and his flyball (54.8% career) and popup tendencies (14.5% career) play exceedingly well at home.
In a limited sample, Estes has posted a 3.08 ERA and permitted a .277 wOBA at home – albeit with a 5.22 xFIP. Still, he owns a 7.17 ERA and .390 wOBA with a 5.50 xFIP away from Oakland Coliseum, where pop flies go to die (29th in Home Run Park Factor, -18% since 2022).
Bets: Athletics F5 Moneyline (+145 or better) | Athletics Full-Game Moneyline (+155 or better) Under 8.5 (-115 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, August 14
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App. This section will highlight my best MLB bets for the day. Additionally, we provide free MLB picks and insights to help bettors make informed decisions.
- Atlanta Braves (+115, 0.5u; bet to +105)
- Colorado Rockies F5 (+175, 0.5u) at Bet365 (bet to +155)
- Colorado Rockies (+192, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to +180)
- Cincinnati Reds (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -108)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 9 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -115)
- Oakland Athletics F5 (+158, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to +145)
- Oakland Athletics (+165, 0.5u; bet to +155)
- Oakland Athletics / New York Mets, Under 8.5 (+100, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -115)
- Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (+110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +103)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+111, 0.5u; bet to +103)
- Texas Rangers / Boston Red Sox, Under 9.5 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -115)
