Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily Major League Baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, May 20.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Reds vs Pirates, Rangers vs Yankees, and Diamondbacks vs Dodgers.
I also have more MLB picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Tuesday, May 20
Reds vs Pirates
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8 -102o / -118u | -155 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -102o / -118u | +130 |
Nick Martinez (CIN) vs Bailey Falter (PIT)
The weather is projected to be pitcher-friendly in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, with temperatures in the mid-60s and a slight breeze coming toward home plate from left-center field.
Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez is in a groove, with four consecutive quality starts.
I wonder if he’s been MLB’s most underrated pitcher since the beginning of last season. Since joining the Reds rotation on August 5th last year, Martinez has started 20 games with a 2.97 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, and 16.3% strikeout minus walk rate. He’s an elite command-and-control pitcher who flashes a plus changeup (113 Stuff+ mark, 21% usage).
Conversely, Pirates can’t hit righties (74 wRC+, 29th among MLB lineups) or lefties (68 wRC+, 26th). Even worse, Oneil Cruz is dealing with a back issue and will likely be less than 100% (if he plays at all, which he’s expected to).
Meanwhile, the Reds are in their lesser split against Pittsburgh’s left-handed starter, Bailey Falter — the lineup has posted a 99 wRC+ against righties but 79 against southpaws.
Despite no improvements in his underlying indicators, Falter’s pace is on for a career-best 3.71 xERA. Cincinnati’s defense still grades below average, but it looks much improved from the past few seasons.
Similarly, the Pirates have improved immensely on the defensive side of the ball, ranking as a borderline-top 10 fielding club by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.
I project 7.62 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 | Play to 8 -108)
Rangers vs Yankees
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +180 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -218 |
Patrick Corbin (TEX) vs Will Warren (NYY)
These are two strong defensive clubs.
The Rangers lead MLB in DRS (+39) while ranking fourth in OAA (+14). The Yankees rank ninth in DRS (+15) and 20th in OAA (-5) — the discrepancies come at catcher (+4 DRS) and pitcher (+7 DRS), which OAA doesn’t capture as well.
The Rangers are struggling in the batter’s box, ranking 25th among MLB lineups in wRC+ against righties (89). Corey Seager is on the IL (hamstring), which doesn’t help.
Conversely, the Yankees are a top-two lineup by almost every metric, regardless of handedness or rolling split.
New York starter Will Warren is talented. His 4.25 xERA doesn’t pop off the page, but his 3.47 botERA and 3.17 xFIP paint a prettier picture behind his career-best 18% strikeout minus walk rate. He’s also got three plus pitches (108 Stuff+ seeper, 109 Stuff+ sinker, 106 Stuff+ curveball) and forces a 45% ground-ball rate.
Texas starter Patrick Corbin’s cutter makes him a functional pitcher (4.22 xERA, 3.96 botERA, 102 Pitching+). Since August last year, he’s started 15 games with a 3.98 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 3.94 xfIP and 13.7% strikeout minus walk rate.
The weather in the Bronx is projected to be pitcher-friendly, with temps in the low-60s and breezes coming toward home plate from left field. On a neutral-weather day, I’d project this game for 8.82 runs, but factoring in Tuesday’s report, my projection falls to 8.37.
Pick: Under 9 (-104 | Play to -115)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +102 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | +195 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -122 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | -238 |
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
Is Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto wearing down?
