Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, August 19.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Cardinals vs. Marlins, Mets vs. Nationals, Orioles vs. Red Sox, and Guardians vs. Diamondbacks. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, August 19
Cardinals vs. Marlins
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -102o / -118u | +115 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -102o / -118u | -135 |
RHP Michael McGreevy (STL) vs. RHP Edward Cabrera (MIA)
Marlins starting pitcher Edward Cabrera is breaking out, posting a 2.57 ERA, 3.38 xFIP, 19.2% strikeout minus walk rate and 108 Pitching+ across 17 starts since May 1.
Cabrera is showing career-best command metrics (102 Location+, 8.1% walk rate, 51.2% zone rate, 62.1% first-pitch strike rate), and his stuff is looking nastier than ever (104) behind a career-high fastball velocity (96.9 MPH on average). He’s also changed his pitch mix, reducing his fastball usage in favor of more changeups, sinkers and sliders.
Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy has a decent floor with excellent command and hard-contact avoidance (111 Location+, 3.3% walk rate, 6.3% barrel rate). Projection systems and advanced pitching models (3.95 botERA, 104 Pitching+) say he’s comparable to Cabrera.
I project this total at 7.23.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 | Play to 7.5 +100)
Mets vs. Nationals
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 9 -105o / -115u | -200 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 9 -105o / -115u | +165 |
LHP David Peterson (NYM) vs. RHP Jake Irvin (WSN)
The weather report calls for rain and winds blowing in toward home plate. However, the high humidity (84%) should lead to increased ball flight and counteract the other weather variables.
Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin grades out as a replacement-level pitcher (5.37 xERA, 4.76 xFIP, 7.7% K-BB), and he’s lost two ticks of average velocity since his 2025 debut. He’s performing worse as the season progresses (8 GS since 7/1, 4.90 xFIP, 3.3% K-BB).
Mets starter David Peterson is struggling with his command (12 walks in his past four starts), and he’s clearly overperforming (3.30 ERA, 4.26 xERA, 3.68 xFIP, 4.50 botERA).
New York’s trade deadline bullpen acquisitions are struggling, while Washington’s bullpen is plain bad.
I project this total at 9.64.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120 | Play to 9 -115)
Orioles vs. Red Sox
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (BOS)
It should be relatively cold in Boston (67 degrees), and winds are projected to be blowing in from the right-field corner (4-to-6 MPH).
However, I still project this total north of 10 runs because of the two poor starting pitchers.
Red Sox starter Walker Buehler is past his prime, posting career-worst metrics (5.65 xERA, 4.91 xFIP, 5.9% K-BB, 93 Pitching+, 4.85 botERA). He’s lost velocity and stuff this season, and he’s posted a 6.22 ERA with 35 walks to 36 strikeouts over his past 12 starts.
Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano is due for negative regression (4.13 ERA, 5.65 xERA, 4.73 xFIP, 4.57 botERA) due to a low BABIP (.275) and high strand rate (78%).
Baltimore’s offense is finally waking up (106 wRC+ over the past month), while Boston’s bullpen has been messy since the trade deadline.
I project the total at 10.15.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100 | Play to -115)
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -105o / -115u | -118 |
RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)
Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been unlucky (5.40 ERA, 4.34 xERA, 4.36 xFIP) because of a high BABIP (.352) and low strand rate (69.9%).
Cleveland’s lineup is much worse against southpaws (80 wRC+), and the bullpen is hanging tough around league average despite the absence of closer Emmanuel Clase.
The metrics don’t show it, but the Guardians project as an elite defensive club in my model.
I project this total at 8.46.
Pick: Under 9 (-102 | Play to -112)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, August 19
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- GM1 Cubs ML (-124 | Play to -135)
- Cardinals vs. Marlins Under 8 (-110 | Play to 7.5 +100)
- Mets vs. Nationals Over 8.5 (-120 | Play to 9 -115)
- Orioles vs. Red Sox Over 9.5 (+100 | Play to -115)
- Guardians vs. Diamondbacks Under 9 (-102 | Play to -112)
