Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, June 4.
MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Previews
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | +102 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -120 |
Seth Lugo (KC) vs. Triston McKenzie (CLE)
Triston McKenzie (3.77 ERA, 4.62 xERA, 5.02 xFIP, 8.1% K-BB%) has primarily avoided disaster this season despite pitching through a UCL tear and showing drastically decreased velocity (90.9 mph) and pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+, 92 Location+) compared to his most recent healthy season in 2022 (92.5 mph, 113 Stuff+, 102 Location+).
The Guardians play elite defense, and McKenzie has also been fortunate with runners on base. However, he's always had a low BABIP (.233 career) and a high strand rate (76.4% career) relative to the league average (.287 and 71.7%, respectively). And he recorded a season-high nine strikeouts in his last outing at Coors Field:
If McKenzie can keep things tight against Seth Lugo, who has overachieved to a similar degree (1.72 ERA, 3.69 xERA, 15.4% K-BB%) thanks to a l0w BABIP (.251 vs. .285 career) and a high strand rate (89.5% vs. 77.6% career), the Guardians can swing things late with a substantial bullpen advantage — especially after an off-day on Monday to rest their key arms.
Cleveland's bullpen leads MLB with a 3.26 xFIP and a 20.1% K-BB%, and its relievers rank ninth in Stuff+ (106). Kansas City's bullpen ranks 29th or 30th in the same three categories (4.70 xFIP, 7.7% K-BB%, 94 Stuff+).
That differential boosts the Guardian's chances by about 2.5% in the second half of this contest compared to the first five innings (F5). You can also look for a live entry on Cleveland as McKenzie exits.
Both McKenzie and the Royals bullpen have blowup potential. I set this total closer to 9.
Bets: Guardians Full-Game Moneyline (-120 or better) | Over 8.5 (-110 or better)
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | -124 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | +106 |
David Peterson (NYM) vs. Trevor Williams (WAS)
Editor's Note: Trevor Williams (right flexor strain) was placed on the 15-day injured list on Tuesday. Left-hander DJ Herz was recalled from Triple-A Rochester and will make his MLB debut in Williams' place.
The Mets nearly blew another ninth-inning lead on Monday, and thankfully, I only show value on this team for the first half of Tuesday's matchup.
Trevor Williams (2.22 ERA, 3.19 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, 13.8% K-BB%) has posted All-Star caliber numbers for the Nationals. He has dialed back on his fastball usage (career-low 47.7%) in favor of more sliders (career-high 34%) and changeups (career-high 18%).
Still, pitching models show he's the same guy as last season (81 Stuff+, 103 Location+ vs. 81 and 104 in 2023). Projections (projected FIP range of 4.44 to 4.92) expect Williams to fall back toward his career averages (4.61 xFIP, 11.3% K-BB%). He's been lucky to avoid the long ball (0.32 HR/9 vs. 1.32 career; 3.3% HR/FB rate vs. 12.8% career) thus far.
The same projection models (projected FIP range of 3.64 to 4.08) view Peterson as a significantly more effective arm. Compared to Williams, he has superior career metrics (3.81 xFIP, 14.7% K-BB%) and pitch modeling metrics (102 Stuff+ in his first start off the IL).
You can draw a line through Peterson's 2023 season as he pitched through a hip injury. He had surgery to repair that issue this offseason before flourishing in the Minors during his rehab stint (35 K, 3 BB in 23 2/3 innings) and performed well against the Dodgers (5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 K).
Bets: Mets F5 Moneyline (-125 or better)
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 10.5 -115o / -105u | -144 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 10.5 -115o / -105u | +122 |
Frankie Montas (CIN) vs. Ty Blach (COL)
Frankie Montas has had an up-and-down campaign for the Reds (4.60 ERA, 4.75 xERA, 4.96 xFIP, 7.2% K-BB%) after missing nearly the entire 2023 season with a shoulder issue. He also had an IL stint this season with a forearm issue.
However, Montas has shown solid pitch modeling metrics and he posted his best Stuff+ rating of the season (107) in his last outing against the Cardinals.
His fastball velocity dipped as low as 92.4 and 92.8 mph in the two starts before the IL stint. Montas has sat at 94.7 and 95.6 mph in his past two outings, with a similar velocity differential on his slider and splitter, which still rate as above-average offerings (116 and 126 Stuff+, respectively).
Montas has introduced a cutter this season (16.8%), which also rates well (107 Stuff+). The closer he can keep his fastball to his career average (96.2 mph), the more effective he'll be. Montas is a substantially different pitcher with a fastball at 95.6 mph compared to 92.4 mph.
I view Ty Blach (4.91 xERA, 7% K-BB%, projected FIP range of 4.62 to 5.09) as a replacement-level arm. He has decent command (104 Location+) alongside a 73 Stuff+ rating, with a high of 82 on his cutter.
I set the total for this game at 11.1 runs.
Bets: Reds F5 Moneyline (-133 or better) | Over 10.5 (-113 or better)
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | -102 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | -116 |
Adam Mazur (SD) vs. Patrick Sandoval (LAA)
Adam Mazur will make his MLB debut for the Padres on Tuesday. A former second-round pick out of Iowa, Mazur is a strike-thrower (60 command grade) who posted a 96 Stuff+ figure and 103 Location+ rating in Triple-A, with an elite 4.3% walk rate.
The righty owns a mid-90s fastball to generate strikes — which he can command comfortably above the hands — and leans on a sharp slider as his out pitch. He is developing his changeup to neutralize left-handed hitters.
I project Mazur as a No. 4 starter (mid-4s ERA projection) before his debut and rate Patrick Sandoval (4.12 xERA, 13.8% K-BB%), who is closer to a league-average or No.3 starting pitcher, as the superior arm.
San Diego does have the bullpen advantage, ranking eighth in xFIP, 10th in K-BB% and 10th in Pitching+. The Angels' bullpen ranks 26th, 24th, and 26th, respectively, by the same three measurements.
Bets: Padres Full-Game Moneyline (-110 or better)
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Giants vs. Diamondbacks
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -110o / -110u | -104 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 9 -110o / -110u | -112 |
Kyle Harrison (SF) vs. Blake Walston (ARI)
I have noted Kyle Harrison's stark home/road splits (4.06 xFIP, 18.3% K-BB% at Oracle Park vs. 5.22 xFIP, 10.2% K-BB% on the road) and have concerns about his ability to limit the long ball (career 1.54 HR/9) when he's not in a pitcher's park.
Harrison's fastball velocity is also down (from 93.6 mph to 92.7) year over year, which is crucial considering he throws his fastball more than 60% of the time. The Stuff+ rating on the pitch has fallen from 104 to 96, and his Pitching+ figure has decreased from 99 to 93.
Blake Walston (79 Stuff+, 93 Location+) should pitch the bulk of this contest for Arizona. He doesn't own an average offering and pitches behind a terrible fastball (65 Stuff+, 30 scouting grade). Walston tries to junk-ball opponents with his cutter, slider, curveball and changeup.
Projection systems view Walston as having an FIP between 4.31 and 4.75. I'm even more pessimistic about his potential, using a number closer to five, yet I still show value on Arizona for Tuesday.
Bets: Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (-121 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, June 4
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- Arizona Diamondbacks (-112, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -121)
- Cincinnati Reds F5 (-125, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -133)
- Cincinnati Reds / Colorado Rockies, Over 10.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -113)
- Cleveland Guardians (-110, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -120)
- Cleveland Guardians / Kansas City Royals, Over 8 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 8.5, -110)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 8 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -108)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+145, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +141)
- Minnesota Twins (+165, 0.5u) at ESPNBet(bet to +155)
- New York Mets F5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -125)
- San Diego Padres (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+155, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +130)
