Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, June 18.
MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds & Previews
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +126 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -148 |
Michael King (SD) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)
NOTE: After lineups, pass on this game.
Michael King (3.58 ERA, 3.73 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, 17.4% K-BB%) and Aaron Nola (3.48 ERA, 3.67 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, 15.3% K-BB%) have had highly comparable seasons.
Pitching models prefer Nola (101 Stuff+, 107 Location+, 106 Pitching+), who has better command, a deeper arsenal and a longer track record as a starting pitcher, whereas King (94 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 101 Pitching+) — a converted reliever — has better strikeout stuff — with his plus slider (126 Stuff+ in 2024; 134 career) — but a more volatile range of projected outcomes.
With new additions Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill, the Padres lineup owns far superior offensive splits against righties (121 wRC+, second) compared to lefties (96 wRC+, 18th) this season.
The Phillies rank in the top nine against both righties and lefties this season, and their offense received a boost with Brandon Marsh and Trea Turner returning to the fold. However, Edmundo Sosa (136 wWC+, +4 DRS, 1.8 WAR) was thriving with regular playing time.
The bullpens are elite — the two relief units are tied for second in MLB with a 109 Stuff+ and 102 Pitching+. The Phillies own better results on the season, but both teams rank in the top 10 by xFIP and K-BB%.
San Diego struggled against Cristopher Sanchez (7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 5 K) on Monday and will draw Ranger Suarez, a second southpaw, in the series finale on Wednesday. I don't think the Padres' righty/lefty splits are as pronounced as their season-long results (25 points), but I still project the Padres' offense for a 116 wRC+ against righties compared to a 105 wRC+ against lefties.
Bets: Padres F5 Moneyline (+121 or better) | Padres Full-Game Moneyline (+125 or better)
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| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -136 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +116 |
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs. Bailey Falter (PIT)
Bailey Falter (3.86 ERA, 4.93 xERA, 4.54 xFIP, 10.3% K-BB%) has overachieved in 2024, primarily due to a .237 BABIP (.285 career). His fastball velocity and Stuff+ rating are both higher than they were during his poor 2023 season (4.93 xERA, 4.56 xFIP, 11.5% K-BB%) — still, he projects as a No. 5 or 6 starter (projected FIP range of 4.40 to 4.74) with below-average pitch modeling metrics (87 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+).
Nick Lodolo (2.93 ERA, 3.20 xERA, 3.62 xFIP, 19.4% K-BB%) has performed like an ace over a 10-start sample — that's backed by a career-best 104 Stuff+ figure.
However, as I have routinely mentioned, the Pirates have hit lefties (103 wRC+, 14th) better than righties (86 wRC+, 28th) all season. I think that 17-point split to date is entirely justified. I project the Pirates for a 109 WRC+ against lefties, compared to a 92 wRC+ against righties, given their current roster construction.
In order, Nick Gonzales (184 wRC+), Ke'Bryan Hayes (156), Connor Joe (141), Bryan Reynolds (115), Andrew McCutchen (114) and Edward Olivares (109) have been the Pirates' best lefty-killers in 2024.
Bets: Pirates Full-Game Moneyline (+115 or better)
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -104 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -112 |
Slade Cecconi (ARI) vs. Jake Irvin (WSH)
Jake Irvin (career 4.51 xFIP, 4.55 SIERA) has drastically outpitched projections this season (projected FIP range of 4.37 to 4.70) with a 3.00 ERA, 3.81 xERA, 3.57 xFIP and 16.7% K-BB% (nearly double his rate of 8.5% last season).
Irvin has a sharp curveball (114 Stuff+) but a below-average arsenal (96 Stuff+), which he commands exceedingly well (106 Location+). He's pounded the zone (13th of 147 starters in zone%) and cut his walk rate significantly (from 10.2% to 4.6%) year over year.
Irvin is likely underprojected, showing clear improvements in chases and whiffs —aside from the decreased walks— fueling his breakout. Still, I've upgraded Irvin in my model about as much as I can justify, putting him in the range of his expected ERA (3.8) and the No. 3 pitchers as opposed to the back-end starters.
Slade Cecconi is one of several Diamondback pitchers with encouraging pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 103 Pitching+) but discouraging results (career 5.80 ERA, 5.38 fIP, 4.76 xFIP).
Arizona has a significant defensive advantage in this series, ranking first in Outs Above Average (OAA) and 13th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), whereas Washington ranks 25th and 27th, respectively, by the same defensive measurements.
In terms of how I model defensive value for Tuesday's projected lineups, I'd rank Arizona's defense third best – behind Cleveland and Toronto. Conversely, Washington is in my bottom three for team defense, with a pair of AL West clubs (Los Angeles and Oakland).
Bets: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (-107 or better) |Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (-107 or better)
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8.5 -128o / 104u | +128 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -128o / 104u | -152 |
Albert Suarez (BAL) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (NYY)
The Orioles and Yankees have dominant position-player groups, ranking as top-three offensive clubs (117 and 121 wRC+, respectively) and in the top 10 for defensive value by DRS and OAA. Unsurprisingly, the Yankees (16.6) and Orioles (14.9) rank second and third, respectively, in cumulative position player WAR (behind only the Dodgers at 16.7).
Baltimore's bullpen has been better by nearly every measure this season (10th vs. 21st in xFIP, 13th vs. 24th in K-BB%, 2nd vs. 24th in Pitching+), but Albert Suarez (1.61 ERA, 3.42 xERA, 12.8% K-BB%, 87 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+) is the question mark against apotent Yankees lineup.
He offers a wide range of projections (projected ERA range of 3.91 to 4.92) over the remainder of the season after bouncing between teams in Japan, Korea and Venezuela over the past seven years.
Nestor Cortes continues to show that his 2023 season was the outlier (4.97 ERA, 3.66 xERA) in an otherwise solid career (3.78 ERA). His Stuff+ rating is down this season (98) compared to 104 the past two years.
Cortes has a decent sample against this Orioles lineup, holding their current hitters to a .571 OPS across 149 plate appearances (26.9% K-BB%). Still, he hasn't seen Jordan Westburg (three PA) or Gunnar Henderson (nine PA) all that much as of yet.
I set Tuesday's total at 8.19 runs.
Bets: Under 9 (8.5, -102 or better)
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 9 -105o / -115u | +134 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 9 -105o / -115u | -158 |
Casey Mize (DET) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL)
Despite warm temperatures in Atlanta (87 degrees at first pitch), 11 mph winds blowing in from left-center should benefit the pitchers in Tuesday's matchup at Truist Park.
I'll wait for the Casey Mize breakout (107 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 102 Pitching+), since he has three above-average offerings (113 splitter, 107 four-seamer, 106 slider) with above-average command.
Spencer Schwellenbach has shown a solid profile (3.86 xERA, 99 Stuff+, 107 Location+, 105 Pitching+) through his first three MLB starts, despite one abysmal outing (six runs in 4 2/3 innings vs. Boston; .375 BABIP), which imploded his ERA.
Schwellenbach has a plus fastball (113 Stuff+) and slider (115 Stuff+) with good command. He looks like a solid rotation piece for a Braves team in desperate need of quality starting pitching.
I projected this total at the same number as the Orioles-Yankees matchup — 8.19 runs.
Bets: Under 9 (8.5, -102 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, June 18
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- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-104, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to -107)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+106, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -107)
- Baltimore Orioles / New York Yankees, Under 9 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -121 or 8.5, -102)
- Cincinnati Reds / Pittsburgh Pirates, Under 8 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -102)
- Detroit Tigers / Atlanta Braves, Under 9.5 (-120, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 9, -121 or 8.5, -102)
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-120, 0.25u) at FanDuel (hedge half of Padres position after lineups)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-140, 0.25u) at Superbook (hedge half of Padres position after lineups)
- Pittsbrugh Pirates (+120, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +115)
- San Diego Padres F5 (+132, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +121)
- San Diego Padres (+138, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +125)
- San Francisco Giants / Chicago Cubs, Under 9.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -115)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -105)
