MLB Odds, Picks Today | Best Bet for Mets vs Giants on Sunday, April 23

The MLB slate for Sunday, April 23, is loaded with intriguing matchups and, as a result, our MLB best bets file is full of options for you to tail.

Our experts have targeted five plays, including a pair of moneylines, a team total, a full-game total and multiple first five innings bets. This includes a pick for Mets vs. Giants on Sunday Night Baseball.

There's a lot to get to, so let's not waste anymore time and get right to the Sunday, April 23 MLB best bets.

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SUNDAY'S MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time	Pick
	12:05 p.m. ET	Phillies 1st Five Innings
	1:35 p.m. ET	Blue Jays Over 4.5 Runs
	1:35 p.m. ET	Braves Moneyline
	1:35 p.m. ET	Astros Moneyline
	7:10 p.m. ET	Over 8.5 | Play to Over 9
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Rockies vs. Phillies

Sunday, April 23 12:05 p.m. ET Peacock

Phillies 1st Five Innings

By Jim Turvey

This is one of the more lopsided pitching matchups bettors will find as Colorado’s Jose Urena has proven to be one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, while Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler has a long track record of being one of baseball’s best.

Urena is sporting a 9.82 ERA over 14 2/3 innings, which amazingly isn’t really even due to bad luck. His FIP (10.36) is by far the worst among pitchers with 10 innings this season (small sample of course). In fact, the gap between his FIP and the second-worst FIP is bigger than the gap between second-worst and 12th-worst. His 2.32 WHIP is fifth-worst in baseball, as is his xwOBA allowed. Basically any leaderboard, standard or advanced, is going to have Urena near the bottom.

And this is no fluke. Since the start of 2019, here are Urena’s stats: 5.56 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 1.583 WHIP and a 5.7 K-BB%. Those ranks among the 130 pitchers with at least 300 innings since the start of 2019: 130th, 129th, 130th, 130th.

Wheeler has gotten off to a bit of a slow start with a 4.79 ERA, but that is a matter of small sample bad luck. His FIP (2.91) basically matches last season’s 2.89, and the story is the same with his xERA (3.17, up a hair from 3.10). His Statcast numbers (exit velocity and barrels allowed) are the same, if not better, as his past three seasons.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising where I am looking to go with this play: Phillies in the first five innings. Now, the books are aware of this pitching gap, but they haven’t adjusted their numbers quite enough. There are a few different ways to play this, and I’m going to try a bit of them all. As of writing, Phillies first five -1.5 is -115, -0.5 is -175 and the moneyline is -280. All would be recommended plays, but very few books have their first five markets out, so make sure to shop around.

Pick: Phillies 1st 5 Innings Moneyline

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Blue Jays vs. Yankees

Sunday, April 23 1:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV

Blue Jays Over 4.5 Runs

By Nick Shlain

Clarke Schmidt had a 3.12 ERA last year while primarily being used out of the New York Yankees bullpen. Schmidt’s first season in the Yankees rotation isn’t going well.

After four starts, he has a 8.79 ERA and a 7.39 xERA in 14 1/3 innings. That isn’t going to keep him in New York’s rotation very long, especially once Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino return from the Injured List. One of my favorite bets on Sunday's is the Toronto Blue Jays to go over 4.5 runs scored (-106 at FanDuel).

Schmidt has allowed three or four runs in all of his starts this year and is yet to complete five innings. He’s only completed four innings once. The Yankees also used their two best relievers, Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta, on Saturday, meaning they may be unavailable Sunday. If Schmidt falls behind early in the game, the Yankees won’t opt to use their best relievers anyway.

Either way, this is certainly a nice spot for the Blue Jays offense to go over their run total as Schmidt has consistently shown this season that he isn’t fit for the starting rotation.

Pick: Blue Jays Over 4.5 Runs

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Astros vs. Braves

Sunday, April 23 1:35 p.m. ET MLB Network

Braves Moneyline

By William Boor

Simply put, I think the Braves are the best team in baseball and that Max Fried is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

That being said, this isn't quite as simple as automatically backing both Fried and the Braves. Of course, we still need to find value in the numbers.

The Astros will hand the ball to Cristian Javier and although he's no slouch, there's a bit of noise in his numbers when we look into the underlying metrics. Through four starts, Javier is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA and held a powerful Blue Jays' lineup to one run over five innings in his most recent start. However, his 5.31 xERA suggests he's been a bit lucky early this season.

Javier excels at getting opponents to chase (92nd percentile), but if the Braves are able to make contact — something I'm willing to bet on with Atlanta's loaded lineup — the metrics suggest they can get to Javier. The Astros right-hander ranks in the 37% percentile in Hard-Hit% and the 15th percentile in both xSLG and barrel %.

On the other side, Fried has been dominant in his first two starts of the season. The 29-year-old lefty threw five scoreless in his most recent outing and has pitched to a 1.08 ERA with a 1.74 xERA. Yes, the sample size is just 8 1/3 innings, but Fried ranks in the 96th percentile or better in xERA/xwOBA, average exit velocity, Hard Hit %, walk rate and chase rate.

These offense are about even as each averages slightly more than five runs per game, but the Braves have both the better starter and bullpen. Atlanta is justifiably favored and I'd bet this down to -160.

Pick: Braves Moneyline

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Astros vs. Braves

Sunday, April 23 1:35 p.m. ET MLB Network

Astros Moneyline

By BJ Cunningham

This line is a little too high for the Astros.

Max Fried returned from a hamstring injury to throw five scoreless innings against the Padres. He's been in the ace category going on two years now as his xERA last season was 2.85. He had one of the lowest BB/9 rates in baseball at 1.55 and this season he's allowing one of the lowest average exit velocities.

His three secondary pitches (curveball, slider, changeup) were all outstanding last season as they all allowed under a .275 xwOBA, but his fastball floated up to allowing a .250 xBA and a .311 xwOBA, which is just average.

The Astros were third in MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and are once again in the top 10 this season.

Cristian Javier is a dark horse Cy Young candidate and was really good last season, posting a 2.43 xERA in 149 innings. Last season, he was ninth in Stuff+ at 116 and 15th in Pitching+ at 106. He's struggled to begin this season with his xERA above five, but most of that came when he blew up against the Pirates.

The Braves lineup has been really good versus left-handed pitching, but they've fallen back to being just average against righties with a 104 wRC+, 13th in MLB.

Last season the Astros were the best bullpen in baseball. They were number one in xFIP, xERA, Pitching+ and Stuff+. That has continued this season as Houston is number one in Stuff+ and second in Pitching+.

I only have the Braves projected at -111, so I like the value on the Astros at +126

Pick: Astros Moneyline

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Mets vs. Giants

Sunday, April 23 7:10 p.m. ET ESPN

Over 8.5 | Play to Over 9

By Tanner McGrath

The Mets and Giants are both crushing right-handed pitching.

The Giants boast a 122 wRC+ against the right side, second only to Tampa. Meanwhile, the Mets check in with a 113 wRC+, good for seventh in the league.

It makes sense. Both lineups are left-handed heavy, with the Mets stacking five lefties — including switch-hitting Francisco Lindor — and the Giants also carrying five lefties. Tylor Megill and Ross Stripling are in for a long Sunday night.

Stripling is probably in for a longer night, given he's going up against a contact-first team in front of a bottom-five defense. The Mets are going to spray the field, and the Giants are going to oblige.

I'm sensing another high-scoring Mets-Giants game.

Pick: Over 8.5 | Play to Over 9

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