Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
Friday brings us a loaded, 15-game MLB slate with plenty of intriguing matchups. Our analysts have eyes for three of them in particular: Mariners vs. Tigers, Rays vs. Yankees and Braves vs. Blue Jays.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Friday, May 12th.
Friday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mariners vs. Tigers
Friday, May 12 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Tigers +107  |
As long as Julio Rodriguez isn't putting up elite production at the top of the Mariners lineup, Seattle is going to have major problems scoring consistently. Rodirguez is whiffing more and chasing more in 2023 and his OPS is just .654.
The Mariners are 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and just 19th in the league overall. Seattle has the third-highest strikeout rate against southpaws in baseball and now gets a matchup with Matthew Boyd, who projects as a 4.50 ERA pitcher but actually pitched better than that thus far. His 3.78 xERA is accompanied by a decrease in his walk rate and improved command and Location+ numbers.
Boyd is opposed by lefty Marco Gonzales, which puts the Tigers in their preferred offensive split. Detroit is above average against left-handed pitching since the start of last year with a 101 wRC+, considerably better than its league-worst production against righties.
Gonzales' walk rate is elevated once again and his K-BB% remains below 10% overall. Detroit has the starter edge and given the hand splits, the offensive edge. I'd bet Detroit at +100 or better.
Pick: Tigers +107
Rays vs. Yankees
Friday, May 12 7:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 8.5 (-110)  |
By Kenny Ducey
It’s a warm 81-degree day in New York City as I write this, and at first pitch tonight it could be as high as 83 degrees with 3-mph winds at Yankee Stadium. The conditions couldn’t be more perfect for home runs, and with a fly ball pitcher on the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays it’s about time we bet on runs between these two great offenses.
Trevor Kelley is getting the ball for Tampa Bay and he’s pitched to a high 36.6% fly ball rate in his career and 50% this season. His career barrel rate sits at 12.2% in his 37 1/3 big-league innings, and that should remain high against a Yankees team which has put up a 127 wRC+ over the last week and looked a heck of a lot more competent with Harrison Bader and Aaron Judge returning in recent weeks.
On the other side of this one, Gerrit Cole owns a career 3.80 ERA against the Rays in 16 starts and will be up against arguably the toughest Tampa Bay offense he’s ever faced. The Rays are first in fly ball rate this year and seventh over the last week, so in the end I expect some home runs from both of these teams.
That should be more than enough to push us over the total. Bet it to nine runs.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
Braves vs. Blue Jays
Friday, May 12 7:07 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Braves F5 ML (-160) |
By Jim Turvey
This is a line that doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
While the Braves and Blue Jays are two good teams, this pitching matchup almost couldn't be more extreme.
Spencer Strider has come out this season with an almost identical stat line to his Rookie of the Year season. He has a 2.70 ERA, but if anything has been a touch unlucky given his 1.81 FIP that is the second-lowest in all of baseball. Strider has arguably the nastiest stuff in baseball outside of Jacob deGrom, and while Toronto has a loaded lineup, Strider has shown the ability to mow through excellent lineups in his young career.
Chris Bassitt, on the other hand, is a bit of a ticking time bomb. His 4.28 ERA this season is somewhat respectable, but he has his lowest strikeout rate since 2016 and the highest walk rate of his career. He's giving up more home runs than almost any other time in his career, and his 5.17 xERA and 5.33 FIP paint a much more accurate picture of a pitcher on the precipice.
The Braves' offense hasn't been quite as strong against right-handed pitchers, but that alone is not enough to turn me off to an excellent spot for Atlanta. I like the full-game moneyline, as well, but the first five is the most targeted play, and I would take it all the way out to -175.
As of writing, however, the best line is at DraftKings, where bettors may also find an MLB profit boost today, making for a truly juicy pairing.
Pick: Braves F5 ML (-160)
