Thursday's MLB slate is small as there are only six games on the schedule, but there's no shortage of betting opportunities. Our MLB betting experts have looked over the games and put together their MLB best bets for Thursday, May 18.
Not only have they found value in three separate games, but two experts are also eyeing the same best bet in Dodgers vs. Cardinals. What's the bet that two MLB betting gurus identified? Well, let's not waste any more time and dig right in to the picks and analysis.
Thursday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Angels vs. Orioles
Thursday, May 18 12:35 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Orioles Moneyline  |
In the battle of Tyler’s, it’s pretty obvious which one The Action Network team is backing on Thursday afternoon.
Tyler Wells is sharp as a scalpel, sitting 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a rock-solid 17.2% K-BB rate. He’s due for some regression (.145 BABIP, 3.89 xERA), but the market continues to stray behind Wells’ year-to-year improvements.
From a Run Value perspective, Wells has four plus pitches. He’s got some solid spin on his fastball and cutter, which he pairs with an off-balance, arm-side-run changeup.
Tyler Wells, Filthy Changeups. 😷 pic.twitter.com/O4UmTcvJlm
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2023
Meanwhile, Tyler Anderson is as square as a block of cheese. With an ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP all between 5.25 and 6.05, he’s perfectly replacement level with a 0.0 fWAR.
Anderson still forces soft contact, especially with his famously reworked changeup. But he’s doubled his barrel and walk rates in the early going, and currently boasts a 3.4% K-BB rate.
Despite boasting plenty of lefties in the lineup, Baltimore boasts a top-five lineup against southpaws this season (124 wRC+). Perhaps the O’s double-digit walk rate has something to do with that.
The Orioles are likely ecstatic for their matchup with Anderson, a left-handed pitcher with control issues.
The Angels are an above-average lineup against right-handed pitching. Still, their numbers lag behind the Orioles in the opposite split, and it’s not close enough to compensate for the starting pitching disadvantage.
Meanwhile, the Orioles have a monster advantage in the bullpen, where Felix Bautista, Yennier Cano and Bryan Baker form a three-headed relief monster. The Angels are no better than league-average by reliever xFIP.
The Orioles are the obvious side at home here. I’m happy to bet the Birds at (-150) or better.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Thursday, May 18 7:07 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Yankees Moneyline  |
By D.J. James
The market seems to have drastically overreacted on José Berríos and the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto will face Nestor Cortes, Jr. and the New York Yankees on Thursday. Against lefties in the month of May, the Blue Jays hold a 94 wRC+ with a .682 OPS. Over the course of the season, they have a 106 wRC+ and a .739 OPS.
The Yankees have a 101 wRC+ against righties on the season and a .729 OPS. They have improved these numbers to 122 and .807 in May and should be in better shape in this one.
Berríos may not walk many hitters or allow a ton of hard contact, but he still holds a 4.70 ERA and a 4.87 xERA.
On the other side, Cortes has been the recipient of some bad luck. He has a 5.53 ERA, but that doesn't tell the entire story. He does rank in the bottom half of the league in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate, but his xERA is 3.91. Those numbers should improve, and with Toronto struggling against southpaws, this could be a game in which he excels.
In relief, each team has a sub-4.00 xFIP. Toronto’s xFIP is 3.92, and New York’s is 3.96, so there is not much of a difference.
Take the Yankees as underdogs at +120, and play them to -110.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Cardinals
Thursday, May 18 7:45 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Over 8.5 |
This is an awesome spot for a late-night over in St. Louis.
Adam Wainwright looks every bit his age, boasting a 7.20 ERA and a 5.49 xERA through two starts this season. It’s a small sample size, but I don’t expect regression against the Dodgers in their better split (if you want to fade the Dodgers, do it against a lefty, because they boast the second-best wRC+ against righties).
Also, we know Wainwright likes to lean on that high-spin, rainbow curveball. That won’t cut it today as the Dodgers are the fifth-best curveball-hitting team in the league (by Weighted Curveball Runs Created).
Meanwhile, Julio Urias looks a tad shaky. His barrel rate is up and his historically low 2022 BABIP (.229) is slowly regressing (.268). That combination has resulted in a 3.61 ERA and a 3.70 xERA.
The Cardinals’ numbers have been up and down this season, but they project well against southpaws with strong right-handed hitters in the lineup (Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Paul DeJong and Tommy Edman). The Cardinals were the best offense against left-handed pitching last season.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen was heavily taxed on Wednesday after Dustin May left with an injury in the second inning. The Cardinals’ relievers have good underlying metrics, but they’ve been questionable in high-leverage situations (second-to-last in WPA, last in Clutch).
Both teams are below-average defensively (by DRS and OAA), and it’s projected to be a balmy 80 degrees at first pitch in St. Louis on Thursday night.
It’s all coming together for an over. I'll be betting on a high-scoring affair at anything better than 9 (-110).
Pick: Over 8.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Cardinals
Thursday, May 18 7:45 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Over 8.5 |
Hello, Adam Wainwright. Once again I am fading the right-hander and backing an over after back-to-back games where the final score ended in double-digits.
The 41-year-old Wainwright has begun to fall apart over the past two seasons. He was fortunate not to have been hit harder in 2022 (4.53 xERA, .270 xBA) as his strikeout numbers dipped below 20% for the first time since 2017.
Through two starts, he has relied on three main pitches, all of which carry an xBA of over .300. His velocity has dropped another tick as opponents have hit him hard in his first two starts of the season.
Through 10 innings he has given up 15 hits and eight runs with a concerning .475 xSLG. His ground ball rate has dropped — albeit in a small sample size — but this doesn’t come as a surprise to me. He’s long been a pitcher barely escaping danger.
Additionally, the Dodgers are in their preferred split on Thursday. They are second in wRC+ and isolated power against right-handed pitching, and third in wOBA. After a 13-13 start to the season, LA has taken off and the offense has taken strides after struggling out of the gate.
As for Julio Urias, there’s a bit of concern for the left-hander after a dominant 2022. His xBA and xSLG have jumped to .238 and .423 — from .205 and .332 — and his barrel rate has continually inched toward double digits.
His velocity remains the same and while he’s incorporated a cutter to his pitch mix, he remains a fastball-slurve heavy pitcher. While he’s a slightly above-average pitcher when it comes to stuff+ (106), his fastball (91) is a major concern.
The Cardinals have hit a groove over the past couple of weeks and their offense has begun to click thanks to Nolan Arenado’s resurgence. St. Louis is 13th in wRC+ against southpaws, a number that’ll likely rise as the season progresses. For reference, they were No. 1 last season.
The Cardinals are eighth in wRC+ over the past two weeks.
The Cardinals bullpen ranks 20th in xFIP and while the Dodgers are up toward the top of the leaderboard, they have the second-lowest BABIP (.260) and second-highest LOB% (76.7), which has led to their success.
This is the perfect spot to fade Urias against a red-hot Cardinals lineup. Tack on Wainwright’s struggles and this is a perfect recipe for an over.
Pick: Over 8.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
