A doubleheader on the docket means there are 16 games on the Sunday, May 21 MLB slate. There's plenty of baseball on all day — starting at 11:35 a.m. ET — which means there are also plenty of opportunities to bet on baseball.
Our MLB betting experts have looked over Sunday's numerous enticing matchups and identified some great value on the board.
Their picks and analysis are below, so continue reading for the Sunday, May 21 MLB best bets.
Sunday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tigers vs. Nationals
Sunday, May 21 1:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Nationals Moneyline (-120)  |
By D.J. James
Joey Wentz will start for the Detroit Tigers, but he will have his hands full with a Nationals lineup that performs well against left-handers. The Nats will pitch Josiah Gray, whose prospect hype is finally coming to fruition. The 25-year-old has a 2.73 ERA against a 3.70 xERA. His Hard Hit Rate ranks in the 74th percentile and his Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 80th percentile of the league. His strikeout and walk rate are below average, but the Tigers have only a 7.4% walk rate off of righties in May.
Paired with Wentz's pitching, Washington is in great shape. Wentz has an 18.8% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. His xERA is 5.31, and his ERA is 6.38, so he should have a bit of positive regression, but a 5.31 ERA is still far from ideal. He is about average at managing hard contact, so this should not be as much of a factor. With that being said, the Nationals should score early and often given how they've mashed against lefties.
The Washington relief staff is a bit questionable with a 15.9% strikeout rate and a 5.12 xFIP this month, but Detroit’s xFIP is 4.56. There is not much of an edge for the Tigers there.
Take Gray and the Nats at -120, and play them to -140 as they should be heavier favorites against Wentz and the Tigers.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline |
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Cubs vs. Phillies
Sunday, May 21 1:35 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Under 8.5 (+100) |
By Kenny Ducey
The Philadelphia Phillies offense is in a rut. They’ve registered just a 76 wRC+ in the past week with an extremely low .104 Isolated Power. To make matters worse, they’re gearing up to face a lefty and are one of the five worst teams in baseball against southpaws.
Oh, and the lefty will be Justin Steele, who has absolutely shoved this year. He’s coming off a poor outing against the Astros, but he’s allowed just two home runs all season and has pitched to a great .225 xBA. He was due for a bit of regression from his torrid start, but the underlying numbers indicate he’s still an exceptional pitcher.
I don’t feel great about a team that has struggled against lefties going up against a master at pitching to contact, but I don’t love the Cubs’ offense either.
Chicago has been a fly ball-happy team this year but is hitting ground balls at the eighth-highest clip in baseball over the past week. This offense is already weaker with Cody Bellinger recently hitting the Injured List, and will now have to try and get hits off of Taijuan Walker, who has pitched to the best ground ball rate of his career so far this season.
I’ll take the under to eight runs.
Pick: Under 9 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Sunday, May 21 1:37 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Blue Jays 1st 5 Innings Moneyline (-180)  |
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the Sunday slate is the Toronto Blue Jays first five innings moneyline.
The Blue Jays are playing at home against the Baltimore Orioles and have the pitching advantage with their ace, Kevin Gausman, on the mound. Gausman has a 2.59 xFIP, 34% strikeout percentage, 4% walk percentage and 45% ground ball percentage. There’s not much more you could ask Gausman from this year.
On the other side, the Orioles will be starting Dean Kremer. Kremer has a 5.15 xFIP, 17% strikeout percentage, 6% walk percentage and a 39% fly ball percentage. He’s noticeably worse than Gausman in every area.
The Blue Jays are in the bottom third of the league in runs per game at home (4.30), but this is still a powerful lineup. Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Brandon Belt, Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier all have at least a .170 ISO against right-handed pitching this year. That should be enough to provide early run support for Gausman.
Pick: Blue Jays 1st 5 Innings Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
