Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, May 15.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview White Sox vs. Reds, Rays vs. Blue Jays, and Astros vs. Rangers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Thursday, May 15
White Sox vs. Reds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 9.5 100o / -120u | +180 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 9.5 100o / -120u | -220 |
Bryse Wilson (CHW) vs. Nick Martinez (CIN)
Although winds are projected to blow in from right field for Thursday’s game at Great American Ballpark, I still project 9.86 runs for this game, partially based on the hitter-friendly 78-degree projected temperature.
White Sox starter Bryse Wilson is a replacement-level starting pitcher, boasting a career 4.83 xFIP with an average FIP projection around 4.96. He’s posted career-worst numbers this year (6.76 xERA, 5.37 xFIP, 2.4% strikeout minus walk rate), likely because of the smaller zone (career-worst 21.15 CSW rate and 47.4% zone rate).
Moreover, he’s lost over a tick on his four-seam (92.2 MPH) and sinker (92 MPH), now at career-low average velocities.
The Reds have lost consecutive games to the White Sox, but the lineup should be due for positive regression after stranding 13 baserunners during the 18 innings by batting 1-for-19 with RISP.
Of greater importance, these are two atrocious bullpens.
Among MLB relief staffs, the Reds rank 26th in xFIP (4.54), 25th in strikeout minus walk rate (10.4%), 16th in botERA (4.12) and 16th in Pitching+ (99). Similarly, the White Sox rank 28th in xFIP (4.60), 22nd in strikeout minus walk rate (10.8%), 26th in botERA (4.45) and 28th in Pitching+ (95).
Pick: Over 9 (-120 | Play to 9.5 -105)
Rays vs. Blue Jays
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -118o / -102u | +140 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -118o / -102u | -170 |
Zack Littell (TBR) vs. Kevin Gausman (TOR)
Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman looks much better this season (3.86 xERA, 3.93 xFIP, 103 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 3.13 botERA) after posting a down 2024 (4.71 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 95 Stuff+, 3.81 botERA). His results have been much closer to career-long marks (3.70 xFIP, 101 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 3.28 botERA), indicating that last year may have been an outlier.
Rays starting pitcher Zack Littell is struggling this season (4.79 xERA, 4.38 xFIP, 11.2% strikeout minus walk rate, 93 Pitching+, 4.41 botERA) compared to the past few seasons (xERA closer to 4.30, strikeout minus walk rate around 16.5%, Pitching+ above 100, botERA below 4.00).
He’s lost two ticks of velocity on his fastball over the past two years (from 94.1 MPH to 92.1 MPH) and over a tick on his sinker (from 92.9 MPH to 91.3 MPH).
Toronto has advantages over Tampa Bay offensively (100 wRC+ vs. 97 wRC+), defensively (ranking 3rd in DRS vs. 5th while projecting better in my model), and in the bullpen (3rd in xFIP vs. 10th, 1st in strikeout minus walk rate vs. 13th).
I project the Blue Jays close to -200 in both halves.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 ML (-184 or better) | Blue Jays ML (-184 or better)
Astros vs. Rangers
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 100o / -120u | +105 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -125 |
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. Jacob deGrom (TEX)
Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has made some significant tweaks this season.
He’s nearly doubled his curveball and changeup usage (to 16.4% from around 9%), which has intentionally lowered his average velocity (from 98.7 MPH to 96.9 MPH) and Stuff metrics (from 119 to 107). However, he’s also improved his command and control, posting a career-high Location+ mark (117).
His strikeout minus walk and CSW rates are no longer in the mid-30s, but he will likely be able to pitch more innings to avoid burnout and — crucial for deGrom — injuries.
And, despite all the changes, he’s still posting elite numbers (2.72 ERA, 2.82 xERA, 21.3% strikeout minus walk rate, 107 Stuff+, 126 Pitching+, 2.23 botERA) — Cy Young caliber numbers close to his career averages (2.53 ERA, 2.84 xFIP, 25.1% strikeout minus walk rate).
That said, Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has arguably been pitching better than deGrom (1.84 xERA, 24.3% strikeout minus walk rate, 111 Stuff+, 116 Pitching+, 3.35 botERA).
Both teams are missing key left-handed contributors from the lineup, as Houston’s Yordan Alvarez and Texas’s Corey Seager will likely miss Thursday’s game.
Still, by wRC+ against right-handed pitching, I project the current Rangers’ lineup nearly five points better than the current Astros’ lineup.
I also project the Rangers as the much better defensive club — they’re above average at every position except for pitcher and catcher. Texas leads all MLB clubs in DRS (+28), while Houston ranks 13th (+12).
Pick: Rangers ML (-120 | Play to -133)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, May 15
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- Rangers ML (-120 | Play to -133)
- Blue Jays ML (-165 | Play to -184)
- Blue Jays F5 ML (-160 | Play to -184)
- Dodgers/Athletics, Under 10 (-112 | (Play to 9.5 (-105))
- Nationals F5 ML (+165 | Play to +150)
- Nationals/Braves, Under 9 (-115 | Play to -120)
- Twins/Orioles, Over 9 (-115 | Play to -120)
- White Sox/Reds, Over 9 (-120) | Play to 9 (-105)
