Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, June 19.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Twins vs. Reds, Rockies vs. Nationals, Cardinals vs. White Sox (Game 1), and Phillies vs. Marlins. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, June 19
Twins vs. Reds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 9 -120o / 100u | -105 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -120o / 100u | -115 |
RHP Chris Paddack (MIN) vs. RHP Nick Martinez (CIN)
The weather should be hitter-friendly in Cincinnati on Thursday, with 77-degree temperatures and double-digit breezes out toward left field. Great American Ballpark already boasts a +28% Home Run Factor, and you can add another 10% for this game.
Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack (4.39 xERA, 9.5% K-BB) is allowing a career-high 44% fly-ball rate and is due for some home run regression (career-low 9.8% HR/FB rate allowed). He was also shelled in his most recent start against Houston (12 H, 9 R, 1 K, 1 BB).
The Twins' next off day isn’t until June 30th — they may need extra length from the vulnerable Paddack this afternoon.
The Reds will be in their better batting split (119 wRC+ against righties over the past month), while the Twins are split-neutral (league-average offense against both sides).
I project 9.74 runs for this matchup.
Pick: Over 9 (-110 | Bet to Over 9.5 +100)
Rockies vs. Nationals
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9.5 100o / -120u | +135 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9.5 100o / -120u | -160 |
RHP Chase Dollanders (COL) vs. RHP Trevor Williams (WSN)
The weather should be hitter-friendly in D.C. on Thursday, with 88-degree temperatures and double-digit breezes out toward right field.
These two teams went 1-for-15 with RISP during Wednesday’s game, and the game really should’ve been higher scoring than the 3-1 final score.
I prefer siding with Rockies starting pitcher Chase Dollander on the road, but his splits have begun to neutralize with a bigger sample size.
These two teams are bad on defense, with even worse bullpens. Colorado’s offense is getting hot (103 wRC+ over the past two weeks) behind Hunter Goodman and Jordan Beck.
I project 10.03 runs for this matchup.
Pick: Over 9 (-120 | Play to Over 9.5 -110)
Cardinals vs. White Sox (Game 1)
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8 -120o / 100u | -145 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 8 -120o / 100u | +120 |
RHP Erick Fedde (STL) vs. RHP Sean Burke (CWS)
The weather should be hitter-friendly on Thursday, with 73-degree temperatures and seven MPH winds blowing out toward right field.
I don’t trust Erick Fedde (4.98 xERA, 4.92 xFIP, 5.2% K-BB) or the underwhelming Sean Burke (5.44 xERA, 5.20 xFIP, 4.42 botERA, 6.8% K-BB).
We also have a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate in Carlos Torres (career 129-118-5 to the Over, worth an increase of 0.27 runs in my projection).
These are two below-average bullpens that rank in the bottom 10 among MLB relief units in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate over the past month.
The Cardinals’ defensive metrics are shaky, but the White Sox are abhorrent defensively by every metric.
Pick: Over 8 (-115 | Play to 8.5 -110)
Phillies vs. Marlins
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -185 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +150 |
LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs. RHP Edward Cabrera (MIA)
Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez is elite (3.35 xERA, 3.14 xFIP, 3.60 botERA, 17.9% K-BB), but the Marlins are better against left-handed pitching (106 wRC+ over the past month).
Surprisingly, Miami’s bullpen has been better than Philadelphia’s over the past 30 days, and the Fish are the better defensive team.
Marlins starting pitcher Edward Cabrera (4.36 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.04 botERA, 16.1% K-BB) is beginning to show better command (100 Location+, 9.9% BB, 29.9% CSW). He’s working on a new pitch mix, throwing more sinkers and sliders rather than four-seamers and changeups.
I project the Marlins ML at +135 for this game.
Pick: Marlins ML (+155 | Play to +146)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, June 19
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- Marlins ML (+155 | Play to +146)
- Tigers G2 ML (+120 | Play to +110)
- Rays ML (-130 | Bet to -145)
- Twins vs. Reds Over 9 (-110 | Play to 9.5 -108)
- Rockies vs. Nationals Over 9 (-120 | Play to 9.5 -108)
- Angels vs. Yankees Over 9 (-115 | small to 10 +100)
- Cardinals vs. White Sox Game 1 Over 8 (-115 | Play to 9 +100)
- Brewers vs. Cubs Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to 8 -105)
- Royals vs. Rangers Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to 8 +100)
