Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, September 5.
MLB Predictions Thursday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today, September 5
Sean Zerillo's Astros vs. Reds Predictions & Picks
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. Rhett Lowder (CIN)
Two-time ACC Pitcher of the Year Rhett Lowder was drafted 7th overall out of Wake Forest last season – as the second pitcher taken after Paul Skenes – and made a quick ascension through the minors (22 starts, 108 2/3 innings) before his September callup.
Lowder posted average pitch modeling ratings (97 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 102 Pitching+, 4.60 botERA) in that debut in four innings against the Brewers (4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 6 K) while showing spotty command despite a low walk rate (5.3%) in the minors.
Scouts view command (65 grade) as Lowder's carrying tool but also like his sinker and changeup as above-average offerings. Both have a ton of arm-side runs, which should lead to whiffs and weakly hit-grounders.
The changeup (115 Stuff+) and slider (111) both look useful, but the Stuff+ model doesn't like Lowder's fastballs (91 Stuff+ four-seamer, 82 sinkers).
However, other stuff models do, like the sinker, which impressed me the most visually:
Rhett Lowder made his MLB debut today!
Lowder tossed 4.0 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 6 K 4 BB. His stuff graded out about average as he generated 10 whiffs on the day. His command was a bit shaky (maybe debut nerves) and he induced a lot of weak contact
Congratulations! pic.twitter.com/ajCTklztEB
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) August 31, 2024
The rest of the season projections for Lowder aren't particularly high (projected FIP range of 4.41 to 4.74), which aligns with his botERA (4.60) in a brief sample.
Projections are significantly better for Hunter Brown (projected FIP range of 3.72 to 3.91) than Lowder, and I like Brown (3.33 xERA, 16.4% K-BB%, 103 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 4.31 botERA) toward the more optimistic end of his range.
Still, I projected the Reds closer to +115 for Thursday's matchup.
Cincinnati has an underrated bullpen (14th in xFIP, 8th in K-BB%, 2nd in Pitching+) and is MLB's best baserunning club (1st in BsR, 2nd in Steals). They could run wild on Brown, who has struggled to hold baserunners (permitted 33 steals on 50 career attempts).
The Reds stole three bags – including a double steal – as part of a nine-run, first-inning assault against the Astros on Wednesday.
Bets: Reds Full-Game Moneyline (+125 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Angels vs. Rangers Prediction & Picks
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs. Cody Bradford (TEX)
The Angels are in a relatively tricky spot on Thursday, traveling overnight Wednesday to face a Rangers club amid a 10-game homestand and coming off consecutive series wins against the Athletics and Yankees.
Moreover, the Rangers have a significant starting pitching advantage with Cody Bradford (3.45 xERA, 3.92 xFIP, 20.1% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.40 botERA) facing Jack Kochanowicz (5.53 xERA, 4.71 xFIP, 3.6% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.80 botERA)
The Stuff+ model loves Jack's curveball (110 Stuff+, 23.7% usage), with the lowest xwOBA (.308) in his arsenal. He also has average command (100 Location+, 7.1% BB% in the minors), but his strikeout rate has halved (8.8%) relative to Double-A (19.5%), as his sinker and changeup have gotten smashed.
The one positive sign in his skillset is his high groundball rate (59.3% in the majors; 62.3% in Double-A), which limits damage even without strikeouts.
Bradford has shown elite command (3.7% walk rate), is on par with the best-starting pitchers in baseball (Zach Eflin, at 2.7%, and George Kirby, at 3.2%, are the league leaders), and has a healthy strikeout rate.
Models like his changeup (101 Stuff+), but all of his offerings have been effective (.279 xwOBA four-seamer, .299 changeup, .314 curveball, .304 slider).
Bradford, a southpaw, hasn't shown a discernible lefty/righty split (.253 wOBA vs. lefties, .251 vs. righties), but his strikeout rate is higher against righties (25.9% vs. 17.5%), and his xFIP significantly lower (3.71 vs. 4.54).
If anything, Bradford's changeup (31.8% vs. righties, 13.8% vs. lefties) leads to reverse splits. And the last time the Angels faced a lefty starter, they deployed eight right-handed hitters.
Bradford, Jacob deGrom (if he's ever going to contribute again, it will be in 2025), Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, Andrew Heaney, and youngsters Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker should help form an intriguing starting rotation for the Rangers in 2024.
Bets: Rangers F5 Moneyline (-175 or better) | Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (-167 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, September 5
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Cincinnati Reds (+134, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +125)
- Minnesota Twins F5 (-120, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -125)
- Texas Rangers F5 (-153, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -167)
- Texas Rangers (-152, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -167)
- Washington Nationals / Pittsburgh Pirates, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
