Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, May 23.
MLB Predictions Thursday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 23)
Mariners vs. Yankees
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8 -112o / -108u | +118 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8 -112o / -108u | -138 |
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. Luis Gil (NYY)
Luis Gil has helped to fill the void left by Gerrit Cole. The rookie right-hander has posted a 2.39 ERA, 2.94 xERA and 31.2% strikeout rate (K%) through nine starts, compared to a 2.63 ERA, 3.48 xERA and 27% K% for Cole in his Cy Young season.
Gil's results are backed by impressive pitch modeling metrics (115 Stuff+, 95 Location+, 102 Pitching+), which shows his immense upside but questionable command (career 13.8% walk rate). However, Gil has toned down the walks in his recent outings (8.8% walk rate in May) and shown improved location metrics over the same span (98 Location+ in May; 104 in his past two starts).
He enters Thursday coming off a career-best 13-strikeout effort against the White Sox:
Five out of six projection systems put Gil's FIP between 3.82 and 3.96 over the remainder of the season; I expect him to pitch to that level — or better — if his command improves.
Gil's fastball and slider grade out as plus pitches (>120 Stuff+ on both offerings). He was never supposed to have a good changeup (30 scouting grade) and projected as a potential reliever, but Gil has brought the pitch up to a 98 Stuff+ this season (76 in 2022) and is throwing it more frequently than his slider. However, lefties are still giving him an issue (12.3% K-BB% vs. 21.2% vs. righties).
Luis Castillo (3.21 xERA, 20.7% K-BB%, 99 Stuff+, 107 Location+, 106 Pitching+) has a more established track record and a much higher floor than Gil, with excellent command (career-best 6.1% walk rate) to boot.
Still, the projections don't see as much of a delta between these two as expected. Castillo's projected rest-of-season FIP range is between 3.31 and 3.54, and one could say there is as small of a difference as a quarter of a run (on a season-long ERA) between these two pitchers using the most optimistic forecast for Gil, and the least optimistic for Castillo.
It's not out of pocket to do so — Gil owns both the better ERA and expected ERA (xERA) this season, and his xFIP is only a quarter of a run higher than Castillo's.
The main risk betting this line overnight is the possibility that the Yankees sit a star for a 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch on a getaway day before traveling to San Diego. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have played every day since May 13 — their last off-day — but have another scheduled day off next Monday.
Assuming regular lineups, I set the Yankees closer to -160 favorites in both halves.
Bets: Yankees F5 Moneyline (-145 or better) | Yankees Full-Game Moneyline (-145 or better)
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Rangers vs. Phillies
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | +172 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -205 |
Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs. Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Adolis Garcia and Evan Carter returned to the Rangers lineup on Wednesday, and our overnight wager at +128 on Texas ended up closing at +102 consensus (+105 best available) — strong CLV despite the loss.
I assume that the Phillies —with an MLB-best 36-14 record and a 117-win pace — are slightly overvalued in the betting markets. Forty-seven of their 50 games this season have come against teams with a losing record — they played the Atlanta Braves to open the season.
The Phillies will finish out May with a relatively soft schedule, playing the Rockies, Giants and Cardinals before eventually facing the Brewers in early June.
They've taken care of weak opponents and built up a six-game lead in the NL East. PECOTA views them as the current favorite in the division (56.7% as of Wednesday morning). However, both FanGraphs (47.6%) and ATC (38.8%) would still make Atlanta an odds-on favorite. The current divisional line is priced most comparably to the FanGraphs projection.
Zack Wheeler (+325) and Ranger Suarez (+500) are currently the favorite and third-choice for NL Cy Young.
Wheeler is as elite as ever (2.52 ERA, 2.66 xERA, 21.3% K-BB%) and has seen an uptick in strikeout rate after adding a splitter to his mix this season (9.7% usage rate). Pitching models aren't exceptionally high on the offering (94 Stuff+) but it likely tunnels well with his sinker.
Zack Wheeler, Wicked 88mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/yhTarPsQYt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 17, 2024
Andrew Heaney remains a league-average pitcher (4.43 ERA, 4.00 xERA, 17.2% K-BB%). He's utilizing the same pitch mix and performing in line with his career averages (4.48 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB%).
The Rangers bullpen has been dreadful (30th in ERA, 21st in xFIP, 25th in K-BB%, 17th in Stuff+, 20th in Pitching+), especially compared to the Phillies relievers (23rd in ERA, but 3rd in xFIP, 4th in K-BB%, 5th in Stuff+, 11th in Pitching+).
The offensive splits for this matchup should be pretty neutral. Philadelphia owns a 115 wRC+ against lefties (9th); Texas has a 107 wRC+ against righties (7th). Using multiyear split data, I project the Phillies for a 113 wRC+ against Heaney, and Texas for a 112 wRC+ against Wheeler.
Texas has a better defensive unit (4th in Defensive Runs Saved, 3rd in Outs Above Average) compared to Philadelphia (12th by both metrics). The Phillies have been the more valuable runners on the basepaths (4th vs. 25th in baserunning value).
While they have a significant pitching edge in this game, I think the Phillies' lines will be slightly overinflated until they cool down (17-3 record in May). Thankfully, we've likely bet on them more than against them this year, but I'd expect to find value in betting against the Phillies — more often than not — for the foreseeable future.
Bets: Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (+176 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, May 23
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- Atlanta Braves / Chicago Cubs, Under 9 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 8.5, -104)
- Colorado Rockies / Oakland Athletics, Over 7.5 (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -120 or 8, -102)
- New York Yankees F5 (-132, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -145)
- New York Yankees (-133, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -145)
- San Diego Padres / Cincinnati Reds, Over 9.5 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- Texas Rangers (+182, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +176)
