Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, August 3.
MLB Predictions Saturday | Expert Picks, Previews Today (August 3)
Kenny Ducey's Brewers vs Nationals Prediction, Pick & Preview
Brewers vs Nationals
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 9.5 102o / -124u | -136 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9.5 102o / -124u | +116 |
RHP Aaron Civale (MIL) vs. LHP DJ Herz (WAS)
It may very well be time for another DJ Herz masterclass on Saturday.
The Nationals sent the rookie down to the minors prior to the All-Star break to give him a bit of rest, and he's returned from a brief two-week stay looking more energized than ever. Herz has allowed just four runs over 10 innings across his last two starts, a line that would look even more handsome if not for a couple of back-to-back solo homers from the Padres to end his first start of the second half a bit early in the fifth.
The left-hander continues to generate swings and misses with his crossfire delivery, maintaining a strong 29.3% strikeout rate across 41 1/3 innings with an incredibly low .214 Expected Batting Average (xBA) for a fly-ball arm. He'll be victimized by the home run from time to time, sure, but that shouldn't be of particular concern in this spot.
The Brewers have predictably fallen back into a rut after overachieving for most of the first half, reverting to the middling offense they've been for years. They're down to 20th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and continue to search for power, with a measly 12 home runs over that span to rank 24th.
Milwaukee sits 19th in Slugging Percentage to lefties, five spots lower than where it sits against right-handers, and on the whole it's still striking out too much at a 22.9% clip in the last 14 days.
That should open the door for Herz to put forth another quality showing, and the offense behind him should be more than capable of handling Aaron Civale.
The veteran owns a poor 4.92 ERA since coming over from Tampa Bay — he will be greeted by a Nationals offense that may have lost Jesse Winker and Lane Thomas at the trade deadline, but remains a capable one nonetheless. They've hit a handsome .252 in the past week as they continue to put the ball in play to great success, which should work out quite well given Civale's .257 xBA and struggles in getting outs via contact.
Bet: Nationals ML (+116 at FanDuel) | Play to -110
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Kenny Ducey's Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction, Pick & Preview
Diamondbacks vs Pirates
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
LHP Jordan Montgomery (ARI) vs. RHP Mitch Keller (PIT)
How far on the "He's Cooked" meter are we willing to go with Jordan Montgomery? Well, I think far enough to put him in trouble against the Pirates at the very least.
The left-hander has been lost in 2024 after enjoying a career year with the Rangers just a season ago, but a deeper look into that season would tell you that Montgomery is the same pitcher he's always been. He's been a serviceable back-end arm who pitches to contact with extremely mediocre expected numbers at his best — and at his worst? Well, you're seeing it.
The man they used to call "Gumby" in New York has watched his roughly .250 xBA — a tad worse than average — balloon to .297 this season as his ground-balling ways have produced more hard-hit balls and far fewer strikeouts. It's a marvel that his numbers are as bad as they are, too, given the Diamondbacks have one of the best defenses in baseball. That's just how hard he's being hit.
The Pirates are a palatable 18th in wRC+ to left-handers and for the last two weeks have brought their average up to .242 with strikeouts continuing to be a backbreaker. Well, Montgomery's dealt a third strike to just 14.2% of the batters he's faced this season, a clip that's only gotten worse across his last three outings as he's struck out four in 11 2/3 innings.
With more balls coming back in play, I expect the Pirates to look just as competent offensively as they did on Friday. In the same vein, however, there's certainly nothing that should be slowing this Diamondbacks offense down.
Arizona continues to seemingly outslug the world, posting a 137 wRC+ in the last two weeks with a .224 Isolated Power (ISO) to rank third in the game. Now, it'll be Mitch Keller's turn to solve the problem that is Arizona, and while he's proven to be an acceptable arm this season, he pitches to contact the majority of the time, which should play right into the swing-happy Diamondbacks' hands here.
With Joc Pederson drawing another start against a righty — and even Josh Bell getting into the act — I think we can count on the Diamondbacks for at least a few runs here as we fade the putrid Montgomery.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings) | Play to -120
Kenny Ducey's Mets vs Angels Prediction, Pick & Preview
Mets vs. Angels
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 9 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 9 -115o / -105u | +105 |
LHP David Peterson (NYM) vs. Jose Soriano (LAA)
I really wish I had a good answer as to how David Peterson gets away with murder every time he steps onto the mound, but I'm still trying to figure it out. The tall lefty honestly profiles very similar to Montgomery in that he lacks strikeout ability due to his heavy ground-ball approach, and doesn't pitch to contact nearly well enough to earn the deserve the 3.52 ERA he has now.
Not only does Peterson give up a wealth of well-struck balls with a 44.1% hard-hit rate that's almost eight points worse than average — amounting to a .279 xBA — he also is working on a fifth straight season with a walk rate of 10% or greater. The runners just keep piling onto the basepaths against this guy, who is a human batting-practice machine, yet he's managed to pitch out of trouble on numerous occasions.
You may not think the Angels would be the team to finally give Peterson the firm right hand he's deserved this season, particularly with Luis Rengifo now injured again, but even without him they got to Paul Blackburn for six hits and two walks in six innings.
The Angels should be uniquely positioned to hurt Peterson given they rank a surprising seventh in baseball in OPS to ground-ball pitchers, with the second-most home runs to boot. When they meet a fly ball-oriented arm, their OPS is second-worst.
There's a clear preference toward pitchers who roll up ground balls, and few do it more than Peterson, whose 53.4% ground-ball rate sits in the top 10% of all pitchers. That should help the Angels do their part to score some runs in this meeting, and the Mets — who sit ninth in wRC+ over the last two weeks — should remain steady at the dish against Jose Soriano.
I do trust the right-hander much more than Peterson, but he's been on a downward trajectory after a hot stretch from May into June with worsening expected numbers and a 4.26 ERA in the month of July. New York is a team that has hit for power all year long but has fallen into a bad habit of striking out over the last couple of weeks — something that should be remedied by the contact-friendly Soriano.
Peterson really should flounder here, but just in case he's able to limit the damage somewhat, I like backing the Over as the Mets continue to prove themselves to be elite at the plate.
Bet: Over 9 (-105 at Caesars) | Play to -120
