Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight the top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, August 17.
MLB Predictions Saturday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 17)
Kenny Ducey's Marlins vs Mets Predictions, Pick, Preview
Max Meyer vs. Luis Severino
The Mets may be on the schneid after dropping winnable series to the Mariners and A's, but it's hard to blame the offense. They probably could have scored more than one run in three games last week, but Seattle both plays in an incredibly unfriendly park for the power-hungry Mets and boasts arguably the best rotation in baseball.
From there, New York hung 20 runs on the A's in three games this week, but its pitching staff crumbled, which ultimately led to the team's demise. Saturday promises much more with Luis Severino taking the ball against the Marlins poor offense.
Severino's firmly re-established himself as a ground-ball pitcher, which is good news considering Miami ranks third-worst in OPS to these types as compared to 18th in the reverse split. On top of that, the Marlins have watched their strikeout rate rise to a stunning 27.8% over the past two weeks, and while Severino's ground-balling ways have generally meant fewer punchouts, he's beginning to flash some punchout potential.
The right-hander struck out just 15.3% of the batters he saw in June, but brought that up to 18.5% in July before posting a nearly-elite 28.3% clip through two starts this month. You can credit the matchups all you want — he faced the Rockies and Mariners — but Miami is firmly in the discussion with those two clubs as the top strikeout victims in baseball and should allow Severino to continue racking up strikeouts.
With the favorable ground-ball splits and the growing strikeout numbers, I expect Severino to serve as a stopper here after the Mets had to endure the suffering that's frequently brought on by David Peterson and Jose Quintana in recent days.
On the other side, it's not as if the Mets have a dream matchup against Max Meyer, who also pitches to contact on the ground, but I'm not sure it'll matter. Meyer is a unique breed in that he's yielded 1.73 home runs per nine innings in his short time at the major-league level after giving up 1.4 homers per nine innings in the minors.
Many screamed "service time manipulation" as Meyer — a top prospect — sat in the minor leagues all season. What nobody seemed to want to admit is that the right-hander was dreadful with a 4.34 ERA and demonstrated that there are plenty of things he'll need to improve in order to deliver on his potential.
I expect the Mets to continue hitting the ball just as well as they did against Oakland while Severino and this slumping bullpen welcome a much easier matchup in a Marlins team that can't slug the ball like Seattle and Oakland.
Bet: Mets -1.5 (+112) | Play to +100
Kenny Ducey's Diamondbacks vs Rays Predictions, Pick, Preview
Zac Gallen vs. Jeffrey Springs
It sure seems like Jeffrey Springs is back. The left-hander, who was one of the top arms in the American League prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery early last year, delivered his best start of the year against Baltimore in his most-recent outing. He allowed just one run on six hits and struck out eight after shaking off the rust in his first two outings back.
The lefty displays incredible promise in the strikeout category and has a well-established track record of suppressing power with a .387 Expected Slugging that's roughly 20 points under the league average. He also posted a .364 Expected Slugging in his last full season, two years ago.
This will be vital for Springs, given the Diamondbacks are out-slugging the entire world at the moment with a .249 Isolated Power in the past two weeks and have made the most of their loud contact with an elite 10.3% walk rate and a .289 batting average.
The veteran has pitched to very few expected hits over the past three years, demonstrating excellence in limiting hard contact and walks. I think he's got about as good a shot as anyone to slow Arizona's roll. Ketel Marte remains hobbled by an injury, so this team may look a bit less menacing than we expect. Also, keep in mind that Arizona's ISO is just .158 versus lefties compared to .180 against righties.
That's why I like the under here. If we can take care of Arizona, Zac Gallen — who's expected to be good to go after cramping up in his most recent start — should do the rest. The right-hander draws an incredible matchup against the Rays, who have ranked last in wRC+ over the past two weeks and are 24th in OPS against ground-ball arms.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105) | Play to -115
Kenny Ducey's Red Sox vs Orioles Predictions, Pick, Preview
Brayan Bello vs. Cade Povich
Betting on Brayan Bello has been a wild ride this year. The right-hander has plenty of talent and has flashed better strikeout stuff this season. He's also pitched to slightly fewer ground balls, but remains one of the happiest ground-ball arms in the AL.
The issue has been that Bello continues to struggle with allowing hard-hit balls and sits seven points higher than the league average. He has also been victimized by poor infield defense and has made a bad habit out of allowing home runs with 18 against him in 22 starts.
Baltimore may still be scoring runs, but they're going through a bit of a power outage with a .167 Isolated Power in the past two weeks — something that's tough news considering this team has thrived in that area all year long and is now looking at worsening strikeout and walk rates.
The Orioles sit fifth in baseball with a .753 OPS against fly-ball arms and are just 15th against ground-ballers with a .715 mark. That should move Bello into a favorable spot here. The Orioles, who rank second in home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this year, are just 12th in that category in the past two weeks.
You might be wondering, then, what we're to do with this one as the Red Sox have had well-documented issues against left-handed pitching this season. Well, I'm not convinced Cade Povich is good enough for that to matter. The rookie got off to a fast start in Triple-A earlier in the year, but stumbled to a 5.04 ERA in the minors in May.
Povich has had massive issues with walks through 37 1/3 big-league innings. As a result, his ERA has climbed to 6.27. He made one good start with Norfolk this month, but that followed by another clunker, and now the Orioles are ready to turn to him once again.
Boston likely isn't the team that the youngster wants to see here. The Red Sox have remained one of the best teams in the league when it comes to hitting for power, and might be inside the top five in run production if not for dreadful strikeout numbers.
Povich has punched out just 14.3% of the batters he's faced at this level and has racked up three or fewer in four of his past five starts across both levels. I expect Boston, even with an unfavorable platoon split, to hit the living daylights out of Povich and earn a win.
Bet: Red Sox +108 | Play to -105
