Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, August 10.
MLB Predictions & Expert Over/Under Picks for Saturday
Kenny Ducey's A's vs Blue Jays Prediction: Over/Under Pick
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -167 | 9 -106o / -115u | +130 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 -106o / -115u | -155 |
Osvaldo Bido vs. Yariel Rodriguez
The Oakland Athletics remain in a relative rut offensively with a wRC+ of just 87 over the last two weeks and now find themselves facing a stylistic mismatch on Saturday with Yariel Rodriguez on the hill for Toronto.
Oakland has been better of late in terms of making contact, but remains one of the guiltiest strikeout teams in all of baseball. That should excite fans of Rodriguez, a strikeout artist who had struck out at least six in four straight starts before struggling against a formidable Orioles team and shutting down the contact-happy Yankees on contact last go around.
Through it all, Rodriguez is still boasting a 24.6% strikeout rate and continues to be one of the best in the league in limiting damage when the ball comes back into play with just five barrels against him in 44 1/3 innings and a .355 Expected Slugging Percentage which sits 50 points under the league average.
With that, I think Rodriguez should be able to contain an A's team that aims for power with plenty of fly balls and fails to make consistent contact. On the flip side, the Blue Jays will need to find a rare burst of offense like the one we saw out of them on Thursday against Dean Kremer. Unfortunately for Toronto, it won't be seeing one of the worst pitchers in the American League here.
No, Bido is not as bad as Kremer — though it's hard to say yet that he's a good pitcher. The results this year haven't been amazing, but the right-hander has had his bright spots around some tough outings and continues pitching to a ton of fly balls which haven't resulted in many expected hits.
The right-hander carries a .192 xBA into this start on Saturday, and while I don't have the most faith in that number remaining this low I do think this is yet another friendly park to pitch to fly balls, especially with how cold the Jays are running.
Pick: Under 9 (-106 at BetRivers) | Play to -115
Ducey's Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction: Skenes Hits Hollywood
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -115 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -105 |
Paul Skenes vs. River Ryan
Ah yes, that's the stuff.
Two young arms that can absolutely shove. We should be in for quite the pitcher's duel here, and I'm going to spoil the surprise by declaring that this game will go under the total.
We know the story with Paul Skenes, who can do just about anything he wants on the hill and dominates in every facet of the game from striking out opposing hitters with expert command of the zone and excellence in pitching to contact. While the Dodgers offer plenty in terms of name value on Saturday, their recent play would seem to indicate that they're a dream opponent for Skenes.
L.A. has the third-worst contact rate in baseball over the last two weeks and has struck out in an unsightly 27.6% of plate appearances as it continues to fall off offensively. Yes, Freddie Freeman has returned to breathe some life into this team — along with Miguel Rojas — but this team's issues in making contact run deep and that should terrify anyone thinking of betting the Dodgers here against one of the best strikeout arms we've seen in years.
I'm just as excited to watch River Ryan here, who's cruised through his first three big-league outings to the tune of a 1.72 ERA and has shown a real knack for being able to pitch. Yes, his xERA stands at 4.53, but that's largely been due to an inability to limit walks and inconsistency in the strikeout department.
Pittsburgh has been the third-worst team in the league over the last two weeks in terms of avoiding strikeouts and ranks sixth-worst throughout the season. It's failed to display patience at the dish as well with a middling 8.2% walk rate, and as a team that has really only come up with base hits and hasn't offered much in the power department, it should be the latest to fall victim to Ryan.
I don't expect Ryan's issues with walks to persist against a trigger-happy Pirates team, and with that he should ground-ball them to death in a low-scoring game.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 at BetMGM) | Play to 7.5 (-110)
Ducey's Mets vs Mariners Prediction: Yet Another Under!
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | +110 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | -130 |
Sean Manaea vs. Logan Gilbert
We should be treated to yet another low-scoring game in Seattle on Saturday, or at least it will be a treat to those who decide to bet on both offenses to fail.
The Mets have fallen into a bit of a slump lately, recovering in their season finale at Coors Field but still ranking just 12th in wRC+ for the month of August. They're not offering much in terms of power with an ISO of .135 and worst of all they've begun to strike out — something they've been great about not doing all season long.
New York is hitting the ball on the ground at a 43.3% clip to rank eighth this month, and in chorus with the strikeouts it should present a favorable spot for the indomitable Logan Gilbert who has been a premier strikeout arm over the last couple of years and in that same period has added the ground ball to his game.
The big question here would seem to be about Sean Manaea and his 4.06 xERA, but over the last month, I've begun to believe in the veteran. He's maintained a pretty impressive 24.6% strikeout rate, shaking off a down year in 2022 to recover some punchouts after hitting the age of 30, and he's had a lot of success in pitching to fly balls this season in a spacious home park.
Conditions don't get much better for fly-ballers like Manaea than this, which is why so many of the Mariners' arms have tailored their games towards pitching to launch angle. I expect yet another friendly setting for Manaea, and making matters even better the Mariners are just 23rd in wRC+ to left-handers this year and are one of the most extreme lineups in terms of hitting fly balls and striking out.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-118) | Play to Under 7 (-105) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
