Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis. We deliver free MLB expert picks each day, ensuring you have the best insights and recommendations for every game.
My projections for every MLB game on Saturday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
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Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, August 24.
MLB Predictions Saturday, Expert Picks, Odds and Preview for Today, August 24
Kenny Ducey's MLB Astros vs Orioles Predictions, Pick, Preview
Bet: Under 8.5 (-120) | Play to Under 8 (-110)
Framber Valdez (Astros (LHP) vs. Albert Suárez (Orioles RHP)
Despite my incredibly strong opinions on pitchers and ballclubs, I will always relent when I'm proven wrong. That's what I'll do on Saturday with Framber Valdez, who is pitching too well to ignore right now.
Valdez hasn't been one of my favorite arms to bet on for the last couple of seasons, something I've felt was warranted given a steady decline in his numbers. That has changed as he's brought his ground-ball rate back up to a firm 60.1% this season. And over the last month and half, his Expected Batting Average is all the way down to .237.
Since the start of July, Valdez has posted a 2.24 ERA behind an excellent .199 xBA. His hard-hit rate has sunk down to just 40% — a number that's hardly good but is solid relative to his hard-hit rate of roughly 46% over the past two seasons. The most jarring part of this run has been a 32% strikeout rate — an area where he has never been dominant (career 23.5%).
It's important to note that Valdez has only had to face one quality offense (Dodgers) during this stretch. However, the Orioles have been less than their best over the last two weeks with their all-world home run-to-fly ball ratio taking a dive and strikeouts beginning to pile up.
It should be a bit easier to fade the Orioles given their recent power outage and the fact that, even with strong numbers against left-handers, they have still punched out in 23.6% of plate appearances in this split (as opposed to 20.8% in the reverse). Baltimore is also decidedly worse against ground-ball pitchers than fly-ballers, ranking 13th in OPS against arms like Valdez as opposed to eighth the other way.
I feel comfortable with Valdez holding down Baltimore, but I'm not going to be playing Houston here. That's because I believe in Albert Suarez, a pitcher who's displayed incredible competence between the bullpen and rotation this season and has put forth a very fine .248 xBA in pitching to a full complement of fly balls.
The reverse is true about the Astros — they'd much rather face a ground-ball arm considering they sit second in OPS in that split as opposed to 13th against fly-ballers. This team has been hitting for plenty of power over the last two weeks, but facing a pitcher who has induced weakly hit fly balls in a park that doesn't produce a ton of home runs should keep this one low-scoring.
Bet: Under 8.5 (-120) | Play to Under 8 (-110)
Kenny Ducey's Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Predictions, Pick, Preview
Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-106) | Play to -120
Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks (RHP) vs. Kutter Crawford (Red Sox RHP)
Unlike the pitching matchup above, it's difficult to wax as poetic about one of these pitchers. Gallen has plateaued in the past two seasons after flashing elite stuff in 2022 while Crawford has been unrecognizable after a blistering start to 2024.
Unlike the game above, though, I feel very good about picking a side here.
It's pretty difficult not to love Arizona, a team that has continued to slug in the last month and a half. Its Isolated Power in the past week still sits at a beefy .184 with an elite 19.2% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate. The power has taken a bit of a hit over the last seven days in Tampa and Miami, but this team has continued to show the same prominence in the plate-discipline numbers and is hitting .260 during that time.
I'm not sure how the Diamondbacks are doing it without Christian Walker and now Ketel Marte, but it's hard to ignore that this team just continues to smash the ball and cross the plate with great frequency. Now they'll step into a much friendlier park for home runs against Crawford, who has really been going through it over the last month and a half.
The right-hander has allowed two homers in his last three starts, but he's also pitched in friendly ballparks like Kauffman Stadium and Camden Yards — against at least one team that lacks power. Before that, he had a run of three outings where he yielded an insane 12 homers, and with the Diamondbacks you can all but guarantee at least one ball leaving the yard.
A strikeout artist like Crawford normally deals with issues like these, and reprieve can be found against teams that struggle for contact. That's certainly not the case for Arizona right now, and when you mix in Crawford's struggles with strikeouts, I think there's a strong case for the Diamondbacks to run up the score in this one.
I think the total's set at an accurate number here given Gallen's mediocrity (which has quickly turned into poor form this month), but as a team that thrives on putting the ball in the seats, I'm not sure I'd favor them. The right-hander has yet to allow a home run in six straight starts and has made some slight improvements in the walk department, so I do think he should be the better of the two arms on Saturday night.
This one should be something of a slugfest, and at the moment you've got to take Arizona every time in a game like that , particularly on the road away from its unfriendly home park.
Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-106) | Play to -120
Kenny Ducey's Tigers vs White Sox Predictions, Pick, Preview
Bet: Under 7.5 (-108) | Play to -120
Tarik Skubal (Tigers LHP) vs. Ky Bush (White Sox LHP)
I've been picking and choosing my spots to play the White Sox as big-time underdogs over the last two weeks, and I have to admit that was my first thought here.
That was until I came to my senses and deduced that the worst team in wRC+ to lefties this year would not hit Tarik Skubal, who seems on his way to winning the Cy Young Award in the American League.
Yes, you can call the White Sox the worst offense in baseball by just about any split, but their ISO has been even more troubling against southpaws — dropping 18 points to .111. Their strikeout rate is also up almost a full percentage point to 24.8% in the same split, and that's enough for me to confidently say Skubal will continue riding high after allowing just two runs on six hits over his last two outings with more excellence in the strikeout department.
The bigger question will be about rookie Ky Bush, who is admittedly not a very tantalizing pitching prospect. What we do know about him is that he'll do his best to issue walks to just about every hitter, but that becomes a bit easier to deal with when he faces a team like the Astros (who he shut down in his last start) that doesn't like to walk.
Detroit's 7.5% walk rate ranks 24th in baseball this season, and in the last seven days it has walked just 5.1% of the time with a dastardly 31.3% strikeout rate. The numbers don't really show it through three starts, but I do see some strikeout upside with Bush and you have to love the matchup here given the recent trends.
The Tigers have also struggled a bit more against lefties this year, producing just a .135 ISO as opposed to a .157 ISO in the reverse split, and that's no surprise when you consider their best hitter, Riley Greene, is at a huge platoon disadvantage with a .208 average against southpaws. Detroit also sits Kerry Carpenter, arguably the team's second-best bat, against lefties.
Bush should navigate this Tigers offense just well enough to get us to the Under while Skubal shoves in a mouth-watering matchup.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-108) | Play to -120
Kenny Ducey's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, August 24
This article provides expert MLB picks and predictions, highlighting the availability of free MLB picks to help you navigate the extensive MLB season and maximize your wagering opportunities.
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles Under 8.5 (-120) | Play to Under 8 (-110)
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-106) | Play to -120
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Under 7.5 (-108) | Play to -120
