Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, April 16.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Giants-Reds, Royals-Tigers, and Angels-Yankees.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
MLB Predictions, Picks
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- Blue Jays/Brewers, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -115
- Cincinnati Reds (-120, Risk 1u), Caesars, bet to -130
- Giants/Reds, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 8 (-108), FanDuel
- Kansas City Royals (-109, 1u), BallyBet, bet to -123
- Mariners/Padres, Over 8 (-110, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -115
- New York Yankees (-235, 0.75u), BetMGM, bet to -270
- New York Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 (-115, 0.25u), DraftKings, bet to -125
- Rangers/Athletics, Under 9 (-110, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -122
- Rays/White Sox, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 8 (+100)
Giants vs. Reds Picks
I expect a lower-scoring matchup on Thursday afternoon in Cincinnati, as 23-year-old flamethrower Chase Burns meets a pitcher I bet on as much as anyone last season, in Landen Roupp.
Burns has struggled with his command this season (14.3% K-BB, down from 27.1%; Location+ down from 104 to 99), but his swinging-strike rate and called-strike plus whiff rate are both higher than his elite levels (15.8% and 28.6%) from last season.
Burns velocity (98.6 MPH vs. 98.8 MPH last season) also remains intact, and I'd expect him to pitch more in line with his relatively elite projections (FIP range from 2.99 to 3.72, K-BB% from 18.3% to 23.3%) going forward.
The BAT X is highest on Burns, pegging him for a 3.14 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 23.3% K-BB the rest of the way, which would place him 12th by FIP, and eighth by K-BB rate among starting pitchers. Burns might already be an Ace.
Roupp (projected FIP range 3.38 to 3.98 and K-BB from 12.1% to 13.8%) has flashed improved skills (K-BB up from 12% to 18.8%) early this season, but those numbers aren't supported by an increase in swinging-strike rate, called-strike plus whiff rate, or a significant change in pitch mix.
Still, I think both pitchers can keep a pair of below-average offenses in check (Giants 26th, 81 wRC+, and Reds 29th, 75 wRC+).
And we have learned that Patrick Bailey's defense will continue to be valuable — and neutralize scoring — even in the ABS era:
We were told pitch framing wouldn't matter in the ABS Challenge world but Patrick Bailey has already caught 40 out-of-zone pitches this season that were called strikes and unchallenged. pic.twitter.com/tpsN61gwpV
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 14, 2026
The Giants strike out less offensively, and they have the better bullpen, but Cincinnati has the better infield and outfield defense (aside from Bailey), hits for significantly more power, and they also create far more offensive value on the basepaths.
The Reds project as the best baserunning team in my model on Thursday's slate, while the Giants rank second-worst (behind only the Tigers).
Pick: Reds ML (-130 or better) | Under 8.5 (8, -108 or better)
Royals vs Tigers Picks
Pick: Royals ML (-123 or better)
Angels vs. Yankees Picks
Pick: Yankees ML (-270 or better ) | Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 (-125 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, April 16
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Blue Jays/Brewers, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -115
- Cincinnati Reds (-120, Risk 1u), Caesars, bet to -130
- Giants/Reds, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 8 (-108), FanDuel
- Kansas City Royals (-109, 1u), BallyBet, bet to -123
- Mariners/Padres, Over 8 (-110, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -115
- New York Yankees (-235, 0.75u), BetMGM, bet to -270
- New York Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 (-115, 0.25u), DraftKings, bet to -125
- Rangers/Athletics, Under 9 (-110, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -122
- Rays/White Sox, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 8 (+100)
