Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, April 13.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Angels-Yankees, Marlins-Braves, and Red Sox-Twins.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
MLB Predictions, Picks
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- Angels/Yankees, Over 9 (-105, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -120
- Boston Red Sox (-165, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -175
- Diamondbacks/Orioles, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 9 (-110)
- Marlins/Braves, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to 8 (-110)
- New York Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (-128, 0.25u), FanDuel, bet to -135
Angels vs. Yankees Picks
The Yankees will return home to the Bronx with the friendliest hitting weather they have had this season; temperatures in the 70s at first pitch, with double-digit gusts (12-14 mph) blowing out to center field. I would normally project this total closer to 9.2 on a weather-neutral day at Yankee Stadium, but the forecast (particularly the wind) pushed my model closer to 10 for Monday night.
Yusei Kikuchi has had a homer issue throughout his career (1.49 HR/9), and he's going up against the No. 1 offense against lefties (114 wRC+) since the start of last season, both by walk rate (10.7%) and ISO (.193).
The Angels' bullpen has also performed among the worst in baseball this season (24th in xFIP and K-BB%), and they likely are down three arms (Sam Bachman, Brent Suter, and Ryan Zeferjan) for this matchup; among the 20 teams in action on Monday, the Athletics and Nationals are the only teams on the slate that I project worse in weighted bullpen FIP.
The Angels also project as the worst defensive team in my model for Monday and among the two or three worst defensive teams on any given slate.
If the Yankees were the road team here – in the same park with the same weather, projected lineups, starting pitchers, and bullpens – I'd make their team total 5.9; but after factoring for the home 9th inning adjustment given their win probability, it lowers to 5.5.
The simplest approach here is to bet the Over, but betting a Yankees team total Over 4.5 runs (-128) to -135, or 5.5 Runs (+136) to +115, is also a viable approach, even more with (likely) just eight innings to get those runs home.
Pick: Over 9 (-120 or better) | Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (-135 or better) or 5.5 (+125 or better)
Marlins vs. Braves Picks
The Braves' offense looks back to its 2023 form, when they led MLB with a 126 wRC+. Their lineup isn't as deep one through nine as it was then, but their stars and top six hitters are scary and difficult to keep in check for an entire game.
A matchup against 22-year-old Eury Perez, who is throwing harder than ever before (98.3 mph fastball velocity), is as exciting a pitcher vs. hitter matchup as you can get in the NL East. Atlanta's offense is a difficult match, but if he can command it, Eury's stuff will play against anyone; his arsenal (118 Stuff+) is tied with Tarik Skubal atop the Stuff leaderboard thus far, and it's a fun list: a revitalized Taj Bradley 115, Cristopher Sanchez 114, Jacob Misirowski 114, Cam Schlittler 113, Chris Sale 113, Jesus Luzardo 111, Chase Burns 111.
Eury struggled with command (6 BB) in his start against the Yankees, but was otherwise fine against the Rockies and Reds, after returning strongly near the end of 2025 (3.24 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, 19% K-BB%).
I'd expect Eury to pitch to the more optimistic end of his projections or better (FIP range 3.83 to 4.18; K-BB% range of 16.4% to 18.7%), provided the added velocity doesn't send him back to the IL.
I've always been higher than market on Grant Holmes (career 4.06 xERA, 3.91 xFIP, 15.4% K-BB%), who has generally outperformed his own projections (FIP range 4.14 to 4.24; K-BB% range 12.7% to 14.3%) in support of that assessment.
Holmes is generally more comfortable at Truist Park; he has shown a notable home/road split throughout his career (3.21 xFIP, 20.8% K-BB% at home; 4.67, 9.7% on the road.
The Marlins are 10-5 to the Over, but their offense (106 wRC+) has outperformed both preseason projections, which had them as a below-average offense, and expected metrics. Comparing Miami's wOBA (.328) and xwOBA (.314), only the Astros (.375 to .353) have outperformed their expected wOBA by a more significant margin this season.
Pick: Under 8.5 (8, -115 or better)
Red Sox vs. Twins Picks
While Garrett Crochet's velocity (95.3 mph and 95.7 mph in his past two starts) is down a bit from last season (96.4 mph), he also sat between 94.8 and 95.8 mph in three starts last April.
It seems like he's still ramping up and had an off-day on the road in Houston; Crochet's early K% – the quickest indicator to stabilize – is nearly in line with both his career and 2025 averages.
Conversely, I remain significantly down on Bailey Ober, whose velocity has tumbled from a career 91.4 mph to 88.7 this season (90.3 mph in 2025). His Stuff+ is down from 97 to 91, and in the early sample, his K-BB% has shown a three-year decline from 26.9% to 19.2% and 11.9%, as his swinging strike rate has fallen from 14.2% to 11.7% and 8.0%.
Ober has a league-average slider and decent command, but everything else in his arsenal is flat and hittable, and if batters are patient, then they can spit at balls and wait for the right pitch to drive, with him throwing at reduced velocity.
I forecast Ober towards the lower end of his FIP range (4.18 to 5.00), which is in line with his early-season xFIP (5.05); meaning there is nearly a two-run projection gap between Ober and Crochet (range 2.78 to 3.01). Boston also has a superior bullpen.
Moreover, despite the difference in early-season performance (Twins 9th, Red Sox 25th per wRC+), the two lineups project about the same offensively, given their respective splits (the Twins have a bunch of lefty mashers and project better against southpaws).
However, the Red Sox field a far more competent defensive team and have the advantages nearly everywhere in Monday's matchup.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-175 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, April 13
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- Angels/Yankees, Over 9 (-105, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -120
- Boston Red Sox (-165, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -175
- Diamondbacks/Orioles, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 9 (-110)
- Marlins/Braves, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to 8 (-110)
- New York Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (-128, 0.25u), FanDuel, bet to -135
