Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, April 6.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Monday, April 6
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- Atlanta Braves (-150, 1u), Fanatics, bet to -190
- Astros/Rockies, Over 10 (-105, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 11 (-110)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-134, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -160
- Minnesota Twins (-120, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -125
- Orioles/White Sox, Under 9 (-113, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to -125
- Reds/Marlins, Under 8 (-102, 0.5u), BetMGM, bet to -110
- St. Louis Cardinals (-106, Risk 1u), FanDuel, bet to -115
- Seattle Mariners (+105, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to +100
Cardinals-Nationals Moneyline Picks
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 8 -115o / -105u | -116 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8 -115o / -105u | -102 |
While I give the Cardinals the starting pitching advantage in this matchup, with Andre Pallante (career 3.94 xERA, 3.97 xFIP, 7% K-BB%; projected FIP range of 4.09 to 4.32) grading out better than Zack Littell (career 4.46 xERA, 4.29 xFIP, 14.2% K-BB%; projected FIP range of 4.43 to 4.88), I show a much larger gap between these two bullpens.
Pallante defies a low K-BB% with one of the heavier groundball tilts in MLB (career 63.8%).
The relief arms for both teams have struggled to date (5.26 xFIP for St. Louis and 5.39 xFIP for Washington), but the Cardinals' projected relievers for Monday average a sub-four weighted FIP; conversely, the Nationals' relievers project closer to 4.5, with only the Rockies bullpen (4.55) ranking worse on Monday's slate.
St. Louis has the better position player group, too, both offensively (projecting 4 points better in wRC+) and especially defensively; their defensive number ranks seventh among the 26 teams with a projection for Monday in my model.
Conversely, the Nationals rank last in defensive value on the slate, and the combined win probability of their negative defensive value and the Cardinals' positive contributions sums to more than a 2.5% impact on the projected win probability for this matchup — the difference between finding an actionable edge and passing on betting this game.
In a small sample this season, the Cardinals have produced 4 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 3 Outs Above Average (OAA); conversely, the Nationals are sitting on -2 DRS and -4 OAA. Washington ranked 27th (-44 DRS) and 29th (-33 OAA) by advanced defensive metrics last season, while the Cardinals led MLB in OAA (36) and finished 19th with 5 DRS.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-115 or better)
Dodgers-Blue Jays Moneyline Picks
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 8.5 -122o / 100u | -142 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 8.5 -122o / 100u | +120 |
To stay with the defensive theme, the Blue Jays rank as the top defensive team in my model (worth nearly 2.5-3% to their win probability in any game) even without Alejandro Kirk, but I am actually against them in the World Series rematch on Monday, even though my model showed an edge (and I backed them) in all three games in their recent sweep against the Chicago White Sox.
I'll continue to mention that the Dodgers have the best offense I have ever projected against right-handed pitching. Still, Toronto projects better against righties than lefties, too (by seven points in wRC+), and Justin Wrobleski forces them into their lesser split.
The 25-year-old southpaw projects better this season than future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. Wrobleski's projected FIP range is 4.07-4.44 (weighted 4.20), with a projected K-BB% between 12.3-14.6%. Scherzer, who will turn 42 during the season, projects to have a better K-BB% (projected 15.2% to 17.2%; 16.5% in 2025) but a worse FIP (projected 4.24 to 4.92; weighted 4.55).
Neither team strikes out much (Blue Jays 2nd at 18.5%, Dodgers 5th at 20.1%), but the Dodgers project to walk more frequently and hit for more power (.182, 2nd vs. .140, 17th, to date), while the Blue Jays figure to steal more outs from balls in play.
If the Dodgers win the home run battle — which they are likely to do — they should also win this game. After looking flat offensively in a home series loss against the Guardians, the Dodgers responded with 31 runs and nine homers across three road games against the Nationals.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-160 or better)
Braves-Angels Moneyline Picks
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -175 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
The Atlanta Braves are my largest projected edge on Monday's 13-game slate, against an Angels team that just took two of three from their divisional rival, the Seattle Mariners.
Both offenses project better against righties than lefties. Still, the Braves are potentially the second-best offense in MLB against right-handed pitching (projected 115 wRC+), while the Angels go from above average against righties to below average (99 wRC+) against lefties.
The defensive differential is also stark: the Braves grade out as an average-to-above-average defense, whereas the Angels rank as the third-worst defensive team on Monday's slate. That shaky defense could cost them with Jose Soriano (career 11.5% K-BB%) on the mound. Soriano, like Pallante, relies on groundballs (61.8% career) to escape jams, which helps him maintain a sub-four FIP projection (range of 3.65 to 3.93). Still, three of his four infield defenders grade out as below average, and despite Jo Adell's recent home run-robbing heroics, the outfield also has a couple of potential liabilities.
Chris Sale (projected FIP range of 2.86 to 3.19; projected K-BB% of 21.9% to 25.6%) is a tier or two better than Soriano, who is generally underrated, but the Braves should have the bullpen edge, too.
Two of the three Angels-Mariners games went to extras, and the middle game also ended 1-0 (thanks to Adell), leaving the Angels' bullpen extremely fatigued coming out of that series.
Brent Suter and Ryan Zeferhan have pitched three of the last five days, while Sam Bachman threw on back-to-back days on Saturday. That wipes out three key relievers and leaves LA with Shaun Anderson (27 pitches on Sunday) and some combination of Chase Silseth, Jordan Romano, Joey Lucchesi, and Drew Pomeranz to cover innings.
Atlanta is in a much better position; Tyler Kinley has worked three of four days (Wednesday, Saturday, Sunday), but is likely the only man out. Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and Joel Payamps are all reasonably fresh, and Jose Suarez and Aaron Bummer haven't pitched at all in the past five days.
Pick: Braves ML (-190 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, April 6
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- Atlanta Braves (-150, 1u), Fanatics, bet to -190
- Astros/Rockies, Over 10 (-105, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 11 (-110)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-134, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -160
- Minnesota Twins (-120, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -125
- Orioles/White Sox, Under 9 (-113, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to -125
- Reds/Marlins, Under 8 (-102, 0.5u), BetMGM, bet to -110
- St. Louis Cardinals (-106, Risk 1u), FanDuel, bet to -115
- Seattle Mariners (+105, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to +100
