Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, April 8.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Royals-Guardians, Orioles-White Sox, and Mariners-Rangers.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Wednesday, April 8
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- Arizona Diamondbacks (+130, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to +115
- Athletics/Yankees, Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -112
- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-148, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -185
- Baltimore Orioles (-150, 0.33u), ScoreBet, bet to -160
- Dodgers/Blue Jays, Over 7.5 (-110, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 8 (-105)
- Kansas City Royals (-120, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -125
- Royals/Guardians, Under 7.5 (-120, Risk 1u), Caesars, bet to 7 (-115)
- Seattle Mariners (-116, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -133
- Tampa Bay Rays (-105, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to -110
Royals vs. Guardians Moneyline & Over/Under Picks
We cashed an easy under at Progressive Field on Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures around 32 degrees at first pitch, and 11 mph winds blowing in from center field.
Temperatures are a bit warmer (46 degrees at first pitch), and the wind has flipped toward left field (7-8 mph) for Wednesday, but I still show a substantial edge on the Under; I would have projected the total around 7.2 in weather-neutral conditions, but make the number closer to 6.33 after factoring for the cooler temperatures and low humidity; take Under 7 to -115.
Both offenses project worse against left-handed pitching as opposed to righties. Still, Cleveland takes the bigger hit against southpaw pitching (a 10-point reduction in wrC+) compared to Kansas City (projected two points better against righties).
Cole Ragans (projected FIP range from 3.23 to 3.60; projected K-BB% of 18.9% to 22.7%) projects as the better arm than Joey Cantillo (projected ranges from 3.72 to 4.11 and 13.9% to 15.4%), and I also give the Royals a slight bullpen edge with fatigued relievers on either side of the matchup.
Take the Royals in the first five innings (F5) to -140 and/or play their full game line to -120.
Pick: Under 7.5 (7, -115 or Better) | Royals ML (-125 or better)
Orioles vs. White Sox Moneyline Picks
While his command has been shaky (15.8% walk rate), Kyle Bradish has also been a touch unlucky (6.23 ERA, 2.90 xERA, 4.38 xFIP) in his first two 2026 starts. His velocity remains at the same level it did when he returned from injury in late 2025 and posted an absurd 3.08 xERA, 2.67 xFIP, and 29.4% K-BB% across six appearances.
Sean Burke has pitched well through two starts (combined 10 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 12 K) while modifying his pitch mix and throwing more sinkers. Still, his projections (projected FIP range of 4.47 to 4.84; projected K-BB% of 10.7% to 13.1%) don't measure up to Bradish's (projected ranges of 3.66 to 3.89 and 15.3% to 18.4%; this is a back-of-rotation starting pitcher against a potential Ace.
I give the White Sox a slight bullpen edge, assuming Grant Taylor is available in relief. Still, I strongly prefer the Orioles lineup, both offensively (projected 114 vs. 99 wRC+ against righties) and defensively. Baltimore projects as a net-neutral defensive team against most opponents, but the White Sox rank among the worst defensive clubs according to my model, and are dead last specifically for Wednesday. The defensive factor is worth about a two percent swing against the White Sox in any game, which adds up to a couple of wins over the course of a full season.
I do project a more sizable edge on the Orioles behind Bradish on the F5 moneyline, but I'd still like to have exposure to both the first-half and full-game markets at appropriate prices.
Pick: Orioles F5 ML (-185 or Better) | Orioles ML (-160 or better)
Mariners vs. Rangers Moneyline Predictions
The Seattle Mariners will look to avoid an early series sweep against a division rival in Arlington as they take on the Rangers on Wednesday afternoon.
Bryan Woo (projected FIP range of 3.38 to 3.60; projected K-BB% of 19.3% to 21.3%) projects to be a tier above MacKenzie Gore (projected ranges of 3.59 to 3.86 and 17.3% to 18.8%).
Still, Gore has slightly modified his pitch mix since joining the Rangers in a trade this offseason, reducing his slider usage (from 15.3% career to 6.7%) while mixing in a cutter (8.4%) and a sinker (5.1%), and he's tossed consecutive solid outings (combined 11 1/3 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 16 K)
Even if the starters are now more comparable than their projections indicate, the Mariners still have a distinct bullpen advantage; Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, Jose A. Ferrer, Gabe Spieier, and Eduard Bazardo all project for a sub 3.7 weighted FIP (four below 3.25) while the Rangers only carry two bullpen arms (Chris Martin, projected 3.55) and Robert Garcia (3.69) who rate as above average relievers.
The Rangers' lineup projects better than the Mariners', even though Seattle's projected splits are normalized by the addition of lefty-killer Rob Refsnyder as a platoon bat. More importantly, however, is that the offensive gap between these teams is somewhat negated by the Mariners' advantages both defensively and on the basepaths.
Take the Mariners to -133 pregame, and consider a live wager shortly before or as Gore exits; the M's should have a sizeable pitching advantage from that point forward.
Pick: Mariners ML (-133 or Better) | Under 7 (-115 or Better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, April 8
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- Arizona Diamondbacks (+130, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to +115
- Athletics/Yankees, Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -112
- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-148, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -185
- Baltimore Orioles (-150, 0.33u), ScoreBet, bet to -160
- Dodgers/Blue Jays, Over 7.5 (-110, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 8 (-105)
- Kansas City Royals (-120, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -125
- Royals/Guardians, Under 7.5 (-120, Risk 1u), Caesars, bet to 7 (-115)
- Seattle Mariners (-116, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -133
- Tampa Bay Rays (-105, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to -110
