Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily baseball betting column that features our MLB predictions and expert picks for Saturday, May 2.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share our favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
New development: each Saturday, Action Network Rookie reliever Matt Trollo will fill in for Sean Zerillo. Exciting!
Still, as always, Zerillo's projections for every MLB game on Saturday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are Trollo's MLB predictions and picks for Saturday.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Saturday, May 2
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- Blue Jays @ Twins under 8 (-115), 0.58u (Play to -125)
- Mets @ Angels under 8 (-110), 0.55u (Play to -125)
- Tigers (F5) -124, 0.62u (Play to -130)
Blue Jays @ Twins Picks
Score one for the analytics crowd. You know, everyone defending Dylan Cease’s contract, despite the 4.55 ERA last year.
His 12.3 BB% is his worst in a non-pandemic season, but he’s also striking out a career high 35.5% of batters with a career high 16.1 SwStr%, while only allowing a single barrel with a 35.7 HardHit% that’s his second best ever.
The worst of his estimators is a 3.23 xERA, though the overall pitch modeling (4.08 Bot ERA, 106 Pitching+) is still fairly average and similar to last year. The fastball (36.9%) and slider (35.9%) remain very well regarded by either system though.
The Minnesota offense hasn’t been the pushover some expected this season (98 wRC+ vs RHP, 103 at home, projected LU 108 wRC+ v RHP since last year), but Cease is backed by a strong defense (proj. LU 4 FRV) and a bullpen with the best estimators in the game this season (3.50 FIP/3.20 xFIP/3.09 SIERA), regardless of their closer issues.
On the other side, Connor Prielipp is a well regarded left-handed pitching prospect. Fangraphs ranks him 85th overall while slapping a 70 current and future value grade on the slider.
The ones he’s thrown in the major league have been similarly measured (66 PB, 136 P+). Its’ very good.
Prielipp has a 22.2 K-BB% both at AAA (15.2 IP) and in the majors (9.0 IP) and this Toronto offense has been struggling mightily (79 wRC+ Road/82 v LHP/82 L7 days – all stats through Thursday). The projected lineup has an 108 wRC+ vs LHP since last year, but just an 81 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. George Springer is back, but they’re still missing bats.
Pitchers could receive some further assistance from temperatures expected to be around 60 and pitcher friendly Tom Hanahan behind the plate.
Pick: Under 8 (-115), 0.58u (Play to -125)
Mets @ Angels Picks
It’s hard to imagine someone reading a baseball betting article doesn’t know who Nolan McLean is by now.
We can quote many magnificent numbers, but suffice to say his 2.55 ERA is within one-third of a run of all non-pitch modeling estimators.
PitchingBot (3.54 ERA) doesn’t love him as much as Pitching+ (114), but that’s a little bit of a command issue. The pure stuff gets a 64 PitchingBot grade. The way his stuff spins and moves, how could he always know where it’s going.
Still, McLean hasn’t walked more than two in any start. In fact, he’s walked exactly two in all but one.
The Angels aren’t getting as much publicity for their losing streak because they weren’t supposed to be good this year, but they own just a 75 wRC+ at home with a team 28.2 K%.
Nolan Schanuel and Adam Frazier are the only two projected Angels below a 23.9 K% vs RHP since last season.
This is a fantastic spot for McLean and despite all their press, the Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been nearly as bad as advertised (4.06 ERA). Their 3.71 FIP/3.65 xFIP/3.44 SIERA combo works out to the fifth best pen estimators in baseball this year.
The problem is that their .309 BABIP is also sixth worst.
The Angels have been waiting for Reid Detmers to fully develop for years. It’s never been a question of missing bats (25.6 K% career, 25.5% this year), but more of throwing strikes (9.1 BB% career) and occasionally missing barrels (10.7% in 2024).
Well, 2026 may finally be his year. Detmers has dropped his walk rate to a career best 6.4% with just 6.5% Barrels/BBE and a hard hit rate below 40%.
Not counting last season’s 61 appearances out of the bullpen, Detmers is sporting the best pitch modeling of his career as a starting pitcher (3.68 Bot ERA, 112 Pitching+), numbers that nearly mirror his opponent.
Batters are simply chasing his pitches outside the zone at a career high 33.7%.
Speaking of chasing, that’s something the Mets have done more often (34.3%) than all but four other teams (surprisingly, Atlanta is one of them).
Maybe that’s why they’re running a 78 wRC+ on the road and 79 vs LHP this year, while the projected lineup is at 86 against southpaws since last season and 63 over the last 30 days.
They’re adding names like Slater and Ibanez after cycling through Pham and Wagaman with Robert Jr, Polanco and Lindor on the IL.
I’m not completely offput about an awful Los Angels defense and bullpen, but it does keep me at half a unit on this one.
In a park with a 102 Run Factor (Statcast 3 year), slightly pitcher friendly weather with temps expected to drop into the 60s during the game, along with a pitcher friendly umpire in John Tumpane, should give us a more neutral to slightly negative environment on Saturday night.
Pick: Under 8 (-110), 0.55u (Play to -125)
Rangers @ Tigers Picks
This last one is a bit of a squeeze, which is why it’s out of order. Call it more of a lean if you like, but you people deserve three games this weekend and I’m going to give them to you if it kills me. (Please Keider Montero, don’t kill me.)
I trust nothing about Kumar Rocker. Not his career low 10.4 K-BB% with a 19.1 K%, not his 47.6 HardHit% (2026) and career 47.5% mark, not his fastball and sinker down a mph and certainly not his 3.38 ERA that’s at least three-quarters of a run below his xFIP (4.11), SIERA (4.17) and xERA (4.37).
Rocker’s 4.89 Bot ERA and 92 Pitching+ are the same as last year (4.87, 93).
The only thing he’s legitimately done well is keep the ball on the ground (56.1%), but that’s somehow led to a career best .288 BABIP with that awful hard hit rate. Hard ground balls generally go for more base hits.
Alternatively, every metric except a 4.16 xFIP says that Keider Montero has improved and been better than his 4.00 ERA (57.9 LOB%).
His 16.8 K-BB% is a career best, cutting his walk rate (4.7%) nearly in half.
I’m not buying the 2.36 xERA with just five barrels (6.3%), considering the 44.3 HardHit% and 34.6 GB%, but it’s still better than Rocker.
The pitch modeling further confirms some improvement with a career best 3.92 Bot ERA and 99 Pitching+. This is solid, average pitcher territory, even if you don’t expect Montero to sustain it.
Wow, did I just spend too much time trying to prove that Montero may be slightly better than Rocker? I’m more confident the Tigers have the edge offensively, especially with a player the caliber of Wyatt Langford on the IL.
Detroit has a 20 point Home/Road wRC+ edge this season and six point edge vs RHP. The projected lineup has a nine point advantage vs RHP since last season (.024 ISO too) with a 14 point lead in wRC+ overall for the last 30 days.
Neither defense or bullpen has been very good, which is one of the reasons I’m leaning F5 instead of full game. Another is a slightly better price. The Tigers also project a four run base running edge (4 BRR to 0).
Pick: Tigers (F5) -124, 0.62u (Play to -130)
Matt Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, May 2
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Blue Jays @ Twins under 8 (-115), 0.58u (Play to -125)
- Mets @ Angels under 8 (-110), 0.55u (Play to -125)
- Tigers (F5) -124, 0.62u (Play to -130)
