Every Monday, Tuesday, and Friday, our guys from the Payoff Pitch Podcast hop on the airwaves for 30 minutes to an hour to break down that day's Major League Baseball slate.
Today, Collin Whitchurch and Derek Carty were on to share their favorite player props for Friday, May 1.
Read about four of their best bets below, and make sure to listen to today's episode.
MLB Predictions, Picks Today
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rangers vs Tigers Player Prop Picks
Gleyber Torres hasn’t had any luck against lefties this season.
Last year, his OPS was nearly 200 points higher against Southpaws compared to against righties. He can do damage against lefties like MacKenzie Gore.
Friday is a good time to turn it around.
Against four-seam fastballs, Torres’ expected batting average is about 40 points higher than his actual. Against changeups, Torres’ expected batting average is about 50 points higher than his actual. Those are two pitches Gore will use frequently.
I also like that we’re backing Torres at home because of the huge gaps in the Comerica Park outfield.
Pick: Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 Total Bases
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Brewers vs Nationals Player Prop Pick
By Derek Carty
I like this bet at -109 or better.
This is scary because Jacob Misiorowski is so good and strikes out so many batters, nearly 14 per nine innings pitched over his first six starts. But I expect that to regress closer to 11 or 12 throughout the season.
The books know that Misiorowski strikes out tons of batters, so they tend to shade his strikeout prop higher than it should be.
Even though my projection system, The Bat X, is very high on Misiorowski, it’s still showing plenty of value on Under 6.5 strikeouts for Friday.
Pick: Jacob Misiorowski Under 6.5 Strikeouts
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Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop
Zack Wheeler turns 36 this month, and he’s coming off a major surgery this past offseason.
His stuff hasn’t looked the same across his first two starts this season. His fastball velocity is down a few ticks, which was in line with his Minor League rehab outings.
He also didn’t have a Spring Training, so he’s still not stretched out, and it’s worth fading him now.
The Marlins strike out at the 10th-lowest rate in baseball, and they also swing at the first pitch a ton. Even if Wheeler is effective, he might generate a ton of weak-contact outs, rather than strikeouts.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts
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Astros vs Red Sox Best Bet
By Derek Carty
This bet is good down to -113.
Shay Whitcomb has a high pinch-hit risk in this matchup. The Bat X projects his pinch-hit risk is about 51% once the bullpen enters the game.
The Red Sox are likely starting Jake Bennett, who was not allowed a very long leash in the Minors, so I don’t expect him to throw more than 75 or 80 pitches.
That means there’s a decent chance we only get two at-bats from Whitcomb, maybe three.
When there’s that high a pinch-hit risk, my model will show value on the Under hits prop.
Pick: Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 Hits
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